Wednesday Bet

Morning

12.20 Hexham-Cape Arrow

Each Way @ 12-1 [Stan James] BOG

Could surprise in poor race

Well done with the place on cape arrow Top Dog.

This is my only day of peace this week, but I'm simply knackered.

This bet is more jockey stat based than form based, so any form guys should bail out now. For what it's worth, as much as I dislike Lingfield, I think this is a decent bet.

Lingfield 3.30

Cabuchon. Win @ 7/1 (60%)
Times Square. Win @ 9/2. (40%)

Mr. Walker has an incredible record in this race, with four wins in this race on the run from 2007 to 2010 ( final year race was split and only won one div).

From 8 rides in this event he has won 4 and finished 2nd in one. I could play around with the figures in a variety of ways but it's a decent return either way, with winners @ 14/1-9/4-4/1-4/1.

This figures actually only tell us what we already know unfortunatly; he's one of the best and gets the decent picks.

The fact that many of these rides are owner/ family based, I'm not sure what he could have turned down.

I've started with trainers in relatively decent form this year:

The Ducking Stool
Daidaidai
Rockweiller
Times Square
Cabuchon

The Ducking Stool is a concern on recent form and jocket stats. However, even in this grade of race, he looks worth opposing as all his wins have come at Yarmouth, the highest off 67, comes here only 2lb lower and is o/8 on the a/w.

Daidaidai could be a sleeper and definitely worth watching for the future, purchased this year for 18K . My "guess" is he's going hurdling but the trainer has a horse by the same sire that has done well on polytrack and the horse does have a half brother who won on standard in France. He could not be considered on recent form or the jockey booking.

Rockweiller has a squeak over this trip and looks a reasonable place bet, but the jockey is 0/10 for the stable and 1/43 overall.

The leaves the bottom two contenders, who just happen to have the best jocks on board.

Cabochon's jock is 1/1 for the trainer and 15/81= 19% over the last 12 months, albeit the bulk of the rides have been on the jumps.
It is a concern that the horse is off a break as the trainer tens to run them non stop and all of the horses wins have come inside 7 days. , but he had an impossible task taking on a Prescott h/cap job horse lto and that was off a 20 day break. He does have an entry in 3 days time though.

He is one of only two C&D winners in the field and although he probably needs to step up on his last C&D run, he really should be in the mix.

My biggest concern re Times Square is is form around this time of year is poor, but the trainer is in decent form at the moment and last run was ok, as he does look best on p/t.

He's back on his winning mark, with his last run on this surface/ mark resulting in a win at Kempton.

You could argue there is a trip issue, but all his 5 failures over 12f on p/t have been at Kempton. This could easily be run at a slow pace with walker dictating, unless one of the inexperienced jocks lose control.

There is a formline through I'm Harry that does make it close between the two picks, so at the prices and the fact cabochon is a C&D winner, I'm staking more on the bigger priced runner.

Qibtee and Salient cannot be ruled out totally, but if anyone plays the t/casts, a perm of the two picks with The Ducking Stool and Rockweiller certainly looks a possible. The latter two would have to win to make it worthwhile.

If there was any significant support for Daidaidai, I would also throw him into the t/c perm.

3rd

Morning

4.45 Kempton [BOG]

Like two horses here, so 1pt win on each

Lobster Pot @ 8-1 [Bet 365]

Gannicus @ 10-1 [Paddy Power]

Both unplaced

Morning

2.00 Lingfield-Complicit @ 9-2 [Bet 365] BOG

Shouldn't be the outsider

Won

Morning

6.20 Kempton-Rebellious Guest

Each Way @ 10-1 [Ladbrokes] BOG

Like his CD Speed rating

Unplaced

Four bets for Lingfield [Bog]

Two trained by Sylvester Kirk

2.00-Dukes Den each way @ 11-2 [Ladbrokes]

2.35-Razor Wind win @ 5-4 [Betfred]

3.10-Al's Memory win @ 4-1 [Paddy Power]

3.40-Celestial Bay win @ 4-1 [Skybet]

Morning

3.10 Lingfield-Nimble Kimble

Each Way @ 11-1 [Bet 365] BOG

Unexposed on this surace

Unplaced

Morning

2.30 Ludlow-Kingsmere

Each Way @ 9-2 [Bet 365] BOG

Sure to be trying for local connections

3rd

Morning

2.40 Newcastle-Kilkenny Kim

Each Way @ 5-1 [Bet 365] BOG

Can upset the hot pot

Abandoned

Morning

2.40 Chelmsford City

Like two here

Only Ten Per Cent @ 8-1

Daring Dragon @ 14-1

Both with William Hill @ BOG

4th & Unplaced

Morning

3.05 Chelmsford-Mojawiz @ 11-4 [Betfred] BOG

Trainer has had 3 wins from seven runners since the track reopened