ubique
Member
- Joined
- Nov 4, 2011
- Messages
- 106
- Points
- 18
Hi there. Just practicing for the comp. You may have noticed that I've only posted losing threads on here so far. They were all about finding big prices to win (2nd thread), or place (on my first thread).
There's quite a lot of time innvolved finding those selections and that,coupled with long losing runs, curbs my enthusiasm sometimes.
I use other systems too and the one I'll be using in the comp is my flavour of the month as it were. I'll describe it a little...
Higher class the better, H/cap or non H/cap, no Maiden races or jocky restrictions, all-aged if possible, 6-12 runners., no race with a f/c odds on fav, need form for at least 50% of the field.
Complying with all of the above still leaves plenty of choice. No need to use all qualifiers. Be choosey.
OK... I rate the whole field for consistency, highlight the first five in the RP f/cast,highlight anything outside those five that rates well for consistency. Strike out everything else. It will leave me with 5-6 horses.
I then rate for ability-speed-weight adjustment.
Rank the horses according to their total rating.
Convert ratings to price.
Check TWO bookies of my choice and note the lowest price.
Add my price and the bookies price to get what I call a Harmonised F/cast.
I then calculate overlays/underlays.
I've experimented with this for a while now. Best results have been backing the LEAST underlaid to win. The MOST underlayed is a good lay bet. The HIGHEST overlay is a pretty good place bet. Staking is still under consideration.
I did two races today. Now watch me get egg on my face.
Font 1.30
Ballylifen (back) 2nd 4/1
Brough Acamemy (lay) 1st 15/8
I No Understand (place) n/r
Hunt 3.10
Oscargo (back) unplaced
Rose Of The Moon (lay) unplaced
Sir Kezbaah (place) unplaced
Just showing the egg
There's quite a lot of time innvolved finding those selections and that,coupled with long losing runs, curbs my enthusiasm sometimes.
I use other systems too and the one I'll be using in the comp is my flavour of the month as it were. I'll describe it a little...
Higher class the better, H/cap or non H/cap, no Maiden races or jocky restrictions, all-aged if possible, 6-12 runners., no race with a f/c odds on fav, need form for at least 50% of the field.
Complying with all of the above still leaves plenty of choice. No need to use all qualifiers. Be choosey.
OK... I rate the whole field for consistency, highlight the first five in the RP f/cast,highlight anything outside those five that rates well for consistency. Strike out everything else. It will leave me with 5-6 horses.
I then rate for ability-speed-weight adjustment.
Rank the horses according to their total rating.
Convert ratings to price.
Check TWO bookies of my choice and note the lowest price.
Add my price and the bookies price to get what I call a Harmonised F/cast.
I then calculate overlays/underlays.
I've experimented with this for a while now. Best results have been backing the LEAST underlaid to win. The MOST underlayed is a good lay bet. The HIGHEST overlay is a pretty good place bet. Staking is still under consideration.
I did two races today. Now watch me get egg on my face.
Font 1.30
Ballylifen (back) 2nd 4/1
Brough Acamemy (lay) 1st 15/8
I No Understand (place) n/r
Hunt 3.10
Oscargo (back) unplaced
Rose Of The Moon (lay) unplaced
Sir Kezbaah (place) unplaced
Just showing the egg
