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Damn You Thundercelt!

H

hotspur

Guest
Unfortunately,a bit earlier I read a comment on Thundercelts thread which I've just spent most of the intervening time thinking about.

And unfortunately,even though I tried to talk myself out of it,it looks like I'm going to have to start a fucking thread because of it.


Yep. I'm going to have to try something I've never done before,trade the win markets of the four English leagues.:unsure:eek::lookaround

Now,one reason I decided that fuck it lets give it a try is because I'm hoping that I can do it in a dozen bets although when I say bets I mean a dozen sets of bets.

On the other hand one reason why I thought it was a bad idea is that some people might see it as my undermining Thundercelt who said that he found this quite hard.

So let me make it clear that it fucking well is hard! Of course it's hard. If it wasn't then by now there'd be 1000s of people doing it every year and we'd have heard about it. (I'm referring to betting solely on the 4 main English leagues not antepost markets in general.For some weird reason 90 % of gamblers seem to think that you have to only bet these markets.:thinking )

(And while we are on this particular aspect of antepost betting,well done to Wayne for successfully doing this years ago. Although I'm still perplexed as to why there was apparently no follow up thread. Pity.)

I've never attempted it before precisely because it always occurred to me as being too hard. And the thing about me is I always make a point of leaving hard things to others while I concentrate on easy things.

Apparently that's not the done thing in our society but there you go.

Actually there was another reason why I decided to give it a go. And it concerns an article I read in the Racing and Football Outlook back in 2002. But I will tell you about that another time.


@ThunderCelt :)


(Note to newcomers to this site. I don't know how long I will continue this thread. Usually it's until I spot a critical comment.-I try squinting so as to avoid all comments but this isn't foolproof alas.
But if I manage to somehow get to the end of the season and somehow make a profit then please bear in mind that there is nothing on here that at least one other member and possibly several know all about.
It's just that they are bound by the laws of eversoumbleness not to divulge anything too potentially useful to the likes of you. Cheers.)


All bets will be with bet365 odds cos quite frankly nowadays I can't be bothered to look for best prices.
 
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Ok let's get the first bets up and running.

City 7-5. Toon 13-8. Lions 5-1. Pompey 3-1 /Luton 9-2

2 bets @ £2 I was going to have a £300 bank but that would have entailed me betting 50 p on some bets at this early stage so £1000 it is.


I should point out that I don't know if Thundercelt was betting in the same way irl as he was in his thread but if so he was making things even harder by making each bet to return what was effectively his whole bank ! I'm not quite sure why he does that. But it effectively means he will be betting too high a stake on many bets . I think it was for reasons of simplicity/uniformity.

What I've done so far is pretty much what almost anyone would do I submit.

Actually I'm going to also bet the same bets but with Bolton in place of Lions @£1 each.

One final thing. It should be obvious to most people that league 1 looks particularly tricky this season (as it has been quite often in recent years) and in my real bets I'd be on Millwall top 6 rather than to win the league.

Bank £994
 
Just a question - but Have you done 4 bets @£2 each and therefore a bank of £992?
 
I was trying to work that out too Colbro, I think he meant 4 bets, mentioned 2 bets then deducted 3 bets lol

Good luck Hotspur
 
Not sure where you two are getting that from, looks pretty straightforward to me :thinking

Bet 1 - City/Newcastle/Millwall/Portsmouth (£2)
Bet 2 - City/Newcastle/Millwall/Luton (£2)
Bet 3 - City/Newcastle/Bolton/Portsmouth (£1)
Bet 4 - City/Newcastle/Bolton/Luton (£1)
 
Now it makes sense lol

Me and Colbro must have been reading it from a different angle.

I thought he was swapping Bolton for Millwall not doing both.
 
Yes, good luck with this Hotspur. No, I don't feel undermined and I'd be delighted if you can show the English leagues can be cracked.

Yes, I did this for the same income for each bet. That was I felt I had *some* control, knowing how much income I would have. On the other hand, I didn't know how much expenditure I'll need to make that income.

And looking back at my records, I make a profit on the English leagues two seasons ago, but the loss last season was significant and from what I remember I felt at the time I'd lucked it.

The bets I've done so far this season concentrate on the same clubs as Hotspur.
 
Okie dokie it's finally time for that oh so important (?) second set of bets;

Chelsea 8-11, Newcastle 4-6 /Brighton 11-8, Sheffield Utd 2-5, Doncaster 5-6


2 bets @ £5


Bank £984



Now let me ask you all a question. Do you believe I have a better than 50 % chance of making a profit from what you've seen so far?

I don't know how many people will say yes but I'd expect it to be at least a third of you.

So to that third let me ask another question;

Don't you find it incredible that virtually all gamblers (on other forums at least ) insist that I'm wrong when I say that you can make a profit (without luck being involved) from accumulators in long term markets ?

What do you think that tells you about the average member of a gambling forum ?


And finally,which if any of the selections above do you think are value? (Personally I think it unlikely that any of them are) edit except possibly Brighton




Now I must admit I wasn't intending to ask those questions until near the end of the season the reason being that I'd really hate anyone to assume that I believe I'm going to be able to make a profit without any problems. I'm too experienced to think that. (I really don't know if I'm going to make a profit but I do believe that over a ten year period I'd make an overall profit.)

But I'm really bored as there's hardly any football this week so I've jumped the gun.



Oh yes. I mentioned an article that appeared in the RFO many years ago. In the article a well known and respected journalist and tipster said he was involved in a competition with two other people,one of whom was a systems analyst, and the purpose of the competition was to see who could make the most money by placing a serious of accas on the winners of the four English leagues during the course of the season.

The systems analyst claimed to have worked out a programme that told him the optimum time to place the bets.

The competition went on for two years.

Who do you think won (it was the same winner both years) and what percentage profit would you expect the computer programme to produce if any?

What disadvantage/advantage would you expect the journalist/tipster to have ? To what extent would you expect most gamblers to have the same disadvantage/advantage as the journalist?


(All questions are merely to get people thinking and I'm unlikely to ever see any answers.)
 
As I find myself still on here I just want to say that when I ask the question , what do you think it says about the average member of a gambling forum that they insist you can't make a profit from such bets I'm not implying that they are stupid.

Calling people stupid is usually rather meaningless and pointless. Because even Nobel prize winners and most of the smartest people who ever lived had stupid beliefs.

So no I'm not implying they are stupid. Many of them may well be but it takes more than stupidity to assume someone is wrong when that person claims to have evidence to the contrary,

No I'm implying that the average member of a gambling forum,should it turn out that thundercelt and myself and the systems analyst are correct, lacks something that I myself was accused of lacking.


And until gamblers realise what they lack they will forever be foraging about in the dark and getting nowhere.


In my ever so umble opinion:lookaround
 
Be interesting to see if you do make a profit on football accumulators in the long term Hotspur, I've always been under the impression from experience you can't and will only do one nowadays for fun hoping to strike it lucky.
Football is so unpredictable that even the low odds on shots are not a cert as the odds would suggest.

The only time I've won big money an accy type bets was on the Tote Placepot where the 'place' works in your favour unlike outright win accy bets.

Good luck anyhow.
 
Only just spotted that Blades are playing tonight. And a rather tricky test to boot!

Hence,

Blues 4-11, Toon 4-7 ,Scunny 10-3, Donny 8-13

£3

£981

As above but Brighton 6-4 instead of Toon

£1

£980


It was the computer programme that came up trumps in the competition and in fact over a three year period it came up with an average profit of 29%.

The main disadvantage that the tipster/journalist had was a difficulty, bordering on an inability at times, to pick selections if he thought they weren't value.

The same problem I suspect most gamblers will have if they eventually discover that this is a profitable way to bet.


As you can see I'm betting very low stakes. Any profit at all would suit my purposes in this case and anyway,obviously if you can make a small profit betting the winners of the four main leagues in England you can also bet several other groups of 4 at the same time if your bank is big enough compared to your stakes.

You can then hedge more efficiently near the end of the season ie by hedging more than one group at the same time (in a double or even a treble).
 
I got badly caught out yesterday because I certainly wasn't expecting Chelsea to be cut to 1-5 without playing even if City won!

Some might think I'd welcome such a cut but it's a peculiarity of such bets that having a selection go too low too early isn't really helpful.

However it doesn't matter because I think I need only do one final bet.

With Brighton playing Huddersfield away tonight a win for them would really put them in pole position and make them worthy favourites though of course they are odds on to fail (I assume)

Ok so,

Blues 1-5 , Brighton evens ,Scunny 15-8 , Donny 3-10

£4

So I think that's £24 laid out.


The reason I did this thread is because I wanted to pick Thundercelt up on what he said and I felt I should make a profit doing this before doing so.


But I will do that another time.

(I think Brighton and especially Scunny may be value )
 
Ok,let me explain why I did this thread.

It's because I fundamentally disagree with what Thundercelt said.

He said that betting accumulators on long term markets is profitable,which is great,but then he qualified that by adding the caveat "in certain circumstances".

But does it matter? I can fully understand if many people think it doesn't .

But unfortunately,whether I like it or not,I'm on a mission to promote this way of betting. And the sooner I succeed the sooner I can do something else.So it matters to me because there's nowhere else on the internet thst people can find out about this (nowhere that's free at any rate)

On the other hand I'm jumping the gun a bit because I'm still short of having the kind of evidence needed to prove I'm right.

But on the subject of betting on the 4 main English leagues I don't need proof because the evidence is freely available on the internet!



So let me just deal with betting accumulators on the 4 main English leagues.

Now,as I think I may have made clear,I don't know why anyone would ever want to do this anyway. I mean force yourself to include selections from the same 4 markets in a series of bets.

It should be clear that that is far harder than simply scouring all the available markets and picking the easiest 4 to trade that particular week.

Now TC of course was merely trying to see whether he could make a profit doing it. But his mistake seems to have been to assume that a method that seemed to work on other groups of 4 would necessarily work in the same way on any group of four.


It's not that you can't make money betting accumulators on the top 4 English leagues it's just that the way nearly all bettors go about doing so is fundamentally flawed.


Placing the first bet before the start of the season is a big mistake.

In fact placing any bet before the first week in January is a mistake.

Even placing the first bet in the first week in January is a mistake.

However were you to have started trading the 4 English leagues starting in the first week in January you should expect to have made a profit in 12 or 13 of the last 17 years while only making a small loss in the other years. (Im most familiar with the last 17 years ) And in fact it may well be 13 or 14 because twice in three years Sunderland came from nowhere to win the Championship and on the second occasion I'd expect people to be wary of them.

Can it really be that easy ?

Well you won't know until you try but I can definitely tell you that that's what I will be telling people outside of forums.(Not thst I will be telling them to bet on this mind)

Now unfortunately the wonderful website I use to study previous league tables during past seasons is bloody well down a lot of the time and has been for a week on this occaision so I'm saying this from memory but let's take a look at the aforementioned Wayne's season.

I believe I'm right in saying that in the first week in January Man Utd were second,Wolves and Leicester were top and Brentford were second.

Now do you think you'd have been able to make a profit from thst situation ?

In 2004 the three winners of the non Premiership leagues were Norwich ,Plymouth and Doncaster . Nothing notable about that you might say.
But their average preseason odds were 28-1.

But if you get a chance check out the league tables that year in the first week in January and see whether you think you could have made a profit.

But why would it be easier to make a profit betting for example the four Scottish leagues from July than the four `English leagues.?

Now that I and TC have implied it is,I'm sure you can think of at least 2 reasons. Interestingly ,I've always found three of the Scottish leagues to be pretty straightforward most years but one of them has cost me more money than any other league so I treat it with caution although this year it seems to be over.

Another league that has cost me money is the `Championship. Now you may be wondering how that can be if all you need do is bet from January onwards.

Well I've just been talking about making a profit. While any profit in itself is a big deal since even professional gambler Tony Ansel says this is impossible ,yes impossible,I've been trying to figure out what the maximum profit you can make is while keeping risk to manageable levels.

I've also wanted to try to become as good at betting on these markets as I can and that means taking on markets when things are trickier.

And so that's the best reason to try betting from early in the season,to do more bets and to learn from them.

Ok now thst I've said all that Doncaster will no doubt collapse or Reading,as they once did before,will go on a blinding run and snatch the `Championship .

But I'm not going to do any more bets on this thread because frankly there should be some risk or else there's no excitement. It's £24 at the end of the day. But even if it was £240 I'd be inclined to let things lie unless I can hedge on the last day.


One final thing,perhaps some of you think that somehow waiting till things become easier before betting is ,I dunno,not cricket or something?

Perhaps you think the whole point of betting from the beginning is precisely because it's such a challenge and that any idiot can do it if they wait till three of the market favourites are odds on ?

Well fine. But that wasn't my understanding of what `Thundercelt meant by "certain circumstances".

You most certainly can make a profit betting on the 4 English leagues starting preseason too. So long as you only lay out a small % of your bank by January. Hence my first bet.
 
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