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Derbyshire 15-8 to win CCDiv 2 !!!???

H

hotspur

Guest
Ever since the last ball had been bowled in the Kent v Derbyshire county championship division 2 game last week Ive been avidly waiting for the title odds.

I dont have a whole lot of experience with cricket but I thought I may have had enough to be able to work out that since a win for Derbyshire would all but guarantee the title then they would be Evens ...or possibly 5-4.

So I was gobsmacked to see the first show this morning,by Coral-15-8!


I believe this to be a decent bet...then again there must be a reason for this price...so lets think>

OK I realise that Hants is a very tricky opponent....but surely Derbys are faves to win!!!

Sure,the draw is always a big chance in cricket...but of course in cricket draws are related.

Because of course of the weather factor.

I really am scratching my head about this one...

It seems to me that it may well be to do with the weather forcast...which I just think its slightly early to go by.

Anyway,yes this is a tip.

And,of course,I realise that since I have -40 credibility on this forum none of you will do it.
I myself will be doing it(if I can)as I need to hedge Yorkshire who I dont fancy as Essex are in imperious form.

But I thought I may as well mention it,if only cos I just cant believe it and perhaps one of you can throw some light on the matter?

It goes without saying that if another bookie goes more than 15-8....then I think perhaps thats as clear an indication as possible that rain is expected in Derby this week...or is it Hants?

I have to admit that I LOVE betting on county championship cricket and this season has been full of great entertainment and thrills!

Not watching it,obviously-watching the scores on a website!
 
I think Batting bonus points come into play in the price. Derby have far fewer than Kent and Yorkshire and will probably need all 5 to win the title. My checking on cricinfo shows they have only got the maximum points twice so far this year whereas Yorkshire have done it 5 times and Kent 4.
It is also on sky so could this add to the pressure?
Also last year Hampshire were live on Sky and denied Warwick the title with a gutsy display in the last game.

Let me correct that and say Derby have scored more than 400 twice, Kent 4 times and Yorkshire 5. How amny points they scored - I don't know
 
Hmmm,well,now that 4 bookies have prices all in the region of 15-8 and the weather for Derby says rain but perhaps not on more than 1 day:unsure ,I think perhaps the bookies logic goes thus,

Basically,the County Championship Div 2 title is nowhere near as important as promotion.

Thus,the way Derbys play v Hants may well be dictated by how Yorks(and,less likely,Kent)are doing.

If say Essex get 380 in their first innings then Derbys dont need to risk losing their game,a tame draw would be fine*-well as long as they get enough batting points in their first innings...

And Derbys are incredibly resilient at batting....

By contrast,Kent really have to go all out for the win and thus I think maybe the market is priced on that basis

* and of course if some of the match is rained off a tame draw would be easily achievable..
 
Indeed,but interestingly enough when they first showed they were 7-4 Kent and 13-8 Derbyshire.

Less than an hour later they went 6-4 Kent and 2s Derbys.

Hence I believe people are betting on Kent due to their very easy fixture.


Only saw your post on batting points,Colbro,after I posted.

For those who may not be aware,the situation,as I understand it,is that,assuming both Essex and Hants are bowled out in the allotted over(90-100),then Derbys need to get within 1 batting point of Yorks to gain promotion(if Kent win).

This is because,although they would have equal points,Derbyshire have had more wins.

(Which,btw,would be incredibly hard luck on Yorkshire since they would have easily have won CC2 already were it not for the fact they were more affected by rain than anyone else.Indee they were in control in both games v Derbyshire!)
 
Then again,that doesnt explain why or how Stan James and Boylesports are 7-4 Kent!

Presumably those prices will go by tomorrow:unsure
 
Er,Skybet are 15-8 Kent!
In view of the above,that may actually be a value bet!
 
Well,if the BBC Weather can be believed,it seems that only Derbyshire will be affected by the weather...
so Im rather surprised that Skybet are still 15-8 Kent.
 
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