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MANAGER CHANGES Management coming's & going's

swooperman

swooperman

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Was going to start this thread at the end of the season, but no reason not to start it now. Way I figure it, the bookies odds vary that wildly across the board in these markets that there has to be an edge, otherwise they wouldn't place stake limits.
With the news that Solskjaer is expected at Cardiff's game today, almost all markets have been taken down, though he's still 1/10 on Betfair & 1/50 33RedBet. He's not been removed from the Albion market as yet & that job is taking for ever. So much so that with 3 draws & the backing of the fan forums, I wonder if Keith downing is getting closer by the day even if he's said he doesn't want it. Wasn't he watching Tim Sherwood? :lol
I'm on Jol & Phelan for Albion. Can't see Jol but the fluctuating prices on Phelan make me wonder. I don't see Mackay at all as it'll endanger his compensation off Cardiff, or does that change when a new man comes in? For the same reason Di Matteo is a non-runner as he's still supposed to be receiving obscene momey from Chelsea until the summer.
Big Sam is 6/4 to go next on Stan james as they're the only market up, & with West Ham away at Fulham today, & missing loads of defenders you can see that, but I'm not sure it's value. Meeulunsteen is an interesting price @ 16's after saturday's capitulation & Curbishley & Wilkins a very tempting option to put in charge if it continues to go wrong.
The value in Lambert has gone as he was 20's 3 weeks ago but 4 defeats & a draw in 5 is a worry. I don't see it but the natives are restless. Lerner's proved he's not keen on listening though, & quite right to to an extent. Bad result at Sunderland today & it'll shorten. Hughton @ 3/1?? No value for me.
Mark Hughes @ 28/1 interests me a bit. Stoke's next 9 games aren't easy at all: Everton & Liverpool at home, followed by trips to Palace & Sunderland who are kicking a bit at the moment if they can keep it going. Manure home, S'oton away, Swansea home, Man City away, Arsenal home. I'd give them absolute tops of 8 points from that lot putting them on 29 with 11 to go? I'm keeping an eye on that as I think the Palace & Sunderland games are enormous.
Be interesting to see what Solskjaer opens up at as if there's a few meddles from above he's limiting damage to his name by walking away quick
 
Thinking along similar lines Ive just done Stoke at 33-1 to be bottom.

Just dont get that price with West Ham just 11-2 and Palace much improved.
 
Great minds think alike :unsure worrying....

I really hope you're not Steve-UK now :lol
 
I'm sure it could mathematically be proved against me, but I'd argue that 33/1, never mind 50/1, is too big for anyone in the bottom 11, bearing in mind there's only 9 points between Sunderland & Hull. If you assume that is the split, & I'd say S'oton are unlikely to have that 4 point gap bridged, & it's another 6 points to Newcastle above them (I'd refer to S'oton being in a group of 1 rather than attached to either the group above or below) Anyone in that bottom 11 are far from safe. Having said that, sunderland are 2 results away from climbing out of the bottom 3 in such a tight set-up & that looks big considering they've not been too bad lately. that's a bad defeat to us today, & I fear for them now.
Stokes goal difference is poorer than those immediately around them as well with a tough set of fixtures coming up. I can see them being hauled in
 
swooperman said:
I'm sure it could mathematically be proved against me, but I'd argue that 33/1, never mind 50/1, is too big for anyone in the bottom 11, bearing in mind there's only 9 points between Sunderland & Hull. If you assume that is the split, & I'd say S'oton are unlikely to have that 4 point gap bridged, & it's another 6 points to Newcastle above them (I'd refer to S'oton being in a group of 1 rather than attached to either the group above or below) Anyone in that bottom 11 are far from safe. Having said that, sunderland are 2 results away from climbing out of the bottom 3 in such a tight set-up & that looks big considering they've not been too bad lately. that's a bad defeat to us today, & I fear for them now.
Stokes goal difference is poorer than those immediately around them as well with a tough set of fixtures coming up. I can see them being hauled in
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Oh,I agree,swooperman.

50-1 is surprisingly big.

In fact its what Id expect if Stoke had won.
 
Big Sam 1/2 to be the next man out, Hughton 6/1, lambert 10/1, Moyes 16/1. No value there, it'd be a surprise if it's not Big Sam to go next at the moment, but still no price for Solskjaer
 
I wouldn't mind seeing a price on Malky Mackay to be the next Stoke manager. If we're right & the fixtures take their toll, it gives him time to sort out his compensation with Cardiff, although I can see that going to court, leaving him free. Arguably it's commutable as well, wouldn't need to move
 
Along the same kind of lines, Betvictor have him 33/1 to be the next Villa boss. I don't see Lambert's in trouble personally, but I'm in a bit of a minority round here
 
swooperman said:
Along the same kind of lines, Betvictor have him 33/1 to be the next Villa boss. I don't see Lambert's in trouble personally, but I'm in a bit of a minority round here
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I will lay you 11-4.:thumb


How much do you want?




Not too much mind.


Cos I cant lay it off:wasnme
 
Lambert's lengthened almost double to 14/1. Big Sam still 4/7.
Solskjaer has been installed at 22/1-ish, about the same as Gus Poyet who sounded almost at the end of his tether in an interview last night. An interesting point might be that how quickly does a new manager that's inherited a team deep in the poo, get blamed for not turning it round? I'm a big fan of Poyet, but he did sound pissed off.
Solskjaer has made a comment about not everything not being as it looked from outside Cardiff, which is either:
a) an arse lick to his new boss unprompted
b) a request from Tan akin to Deadly Doug asking Big Fat Ron to write encouraging programme notes back in the 90's, to improve his standing with the supporters :)unsure)
c) very fucking naive

Solskjaer was linked with a lot of jobs in England before taking this one, a lot of much safer jobs. I'm not convinced about this at all tbh & think it's worth keeping an eye on.
 
Mendilibar is shortening steadily for Albion, 5/2 now. If it was 6/4 to evens I'd say it's a done deal, but it's not quite short enough yet.

My attempted rumour of Phelan being seen in Aldi's in West Brom hasn't taken off :unsure
 
Big Sam 1/5 in places, whilst Nigel Adkins has been cut massively for West Brom

Although it goes against my Phelan & Jol bets, surely, as Mendilibar is unemployed, there'd be no delay in appointing him, or not this fucking much anyway. No ones got a clue, particularly the Albion board
 
Mirko Slomka, ex-Hannover & sacked 9 days ago, is the latest to attract short prices. Adkins has lengthened slightly, as has Mendilibar. Mackay roughly hovering the same. I'm intrigued to know why, even with uncle tom, dick & harry emerging in the running by the day, Mike Phelan's odds don't seem to shift :thinking

West Ham are currently losing at Forest although I'm not watching it, & Big Sam is 1/2. Don't think you can back anyone else whilst he's still in this state. Lambert's as short as 5/1 at Ladbrokes. Interesting one is Alan Pardew, he's 6/1 @ Ladbrokes yet 28/1 @ Stan James
 
5 nil forest & Sams shortened some more. Hard to see him surviving a dicking from a division below. Is something happening @ Newcastle though? Pardew now 6's across what markets are up, though some are down during matches
 
swooperman said:
Is something happening @ Newcastle though? Pardew now 6's across what markets are up, though some are down during matches
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They've lost 3 in a row and their (deluded) hopes of a Champions League spot is rapidly fading. Cue their fans smashing up their city centre (again) and a Pardew-and-Ashley-out demonstration :p
 
Yeah but Pardew's not going anywhere whilst Ashley's still in control, so it's a crazy shortening of price
 
Albion appointment by midweek I'm hearing round here. Mendilibar is now favourite, Mackay slipping to 5/1. Thomas Schaaf & Dave Jones are the latest short-priced new entrants. :unsure Dave fucking Jones??
Slomka's drifted after only a day, Adkin's has said he's not interested so he's gone from 100/1 to 5/1, back out to 25/1 in 4 days :lol
Quique Flores is quite short for a newbie as well, whereas Neil Lennon has drifted after stubbornly hanging on in there at about 12/1 for a couple of weeks. Jol has shortened a touch, & as ever Mike Phelan remains the one constant in the entire affair. It's worse than Eastenders :unsure
 
Mendilibar's slipped a little. I'm tempted to take Ladbrokes book as the more realistic of them all, as they don't appear to give Dave Jones much chance whereas some others do, & in an affair that makes little sense, Jones being appointed makes the least, surely :unsure
Laddies have Stuart Pearce @ 4/1, Mendilibar 9/2, then Mackay, Schaaf & Flores all at 5/1...yes, all of them. So, 5 runners below 5's? They haven't a clue :lol but at least their prices admit it. They have 10 names @ 16/1 or below :eek Slomka has disappeared south, as has Adkins, & Pellegrino who Laddies don't even offer a price on anymore.
I've come to the conclusion that I'm quite happy with Phelan & Jol, as you could have thrown money at brief short-pricers only to see them become no-hopers the next day. Jeremy Peace certainly keeps things close to his chest, & he certainly won't be rushed
 
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