ONEDUNME
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Maybe a tad early for a thread like this
but so what.
I've just looked at the relegation prices and, quite frankly, they are shit. 6/1 and less for half the league? That's a joke.
The key to profitable relegation betting is to back and lay throughout the next 9 months so that you eventually end up either "greening up" with a bet to nothing, or at least getting your stake back. Bookies (or I should probably say punters, as they are the ones who drive the demand and therefore change the prices) overreact massively to every little thing that happens on a weekly basis. A team signs or sells a player and their price changes without a ball being kicked or a point being won or lost. I have to say that the liquidity to lay on
betfair
is not great and therefore you are never going to make the very best of these price changes but there is enough in it for you to at least get yourself an interest (if not an eventual profit) by having a go on this market.
If you fancy a lowly team to cause an upset, you could back them to win or draw no bet or the asian handicap and have a day's interest on it but you could also lay them to be relegated and, if they lose, you could find that you have a live bet in a couple of weeks when the situation changes.
I'm going to try to keep an eye on this when the markets have chosen their four or five most likely candidates (rather than ten of them) so I have no firm view on who to back or lay at the moment but I would draw people's attention to the fact that the Premiership rules on pitch sizes have changed this year with a view to standardising all pitches. The rule says:
The Pitch
K.21. Unless otherwise permitted by the Board, in League Matches the length
of the pitch shall be 105 metres and its breadth 68 metres.
"So, Who cares?" You might say. I'd hazzard a guess that Stoke City care. Unless they have a special dispensation to have a narrower pitch (which, as I understand it, is only there for use in the event that a team cannot physically play to those dimensions for some reason) they will be playing on a pitch significantly narrower than they have done in the past. I won't insult anyone by assuming that they don't know that Stoke's major weapons are their physicality and (tied into that) their long throws into the oppositions box to be battled for.
They won 11 and drew 12 of their home games in the Prem last year. The touchlines they are launching their long throws from will both be about six and a half feet further away from the penalty spot than they have previously been and it will be interesting to watch tomorrow's home game (live on TV) and see how many throws they can cause trouble from given the changes.
I'm not saying Stoke are value to go down. At 6/1 they are most definitely NOT!. I'm just saying that everyone should take a view on who may possibly struggle, keep an eye on the prices, and not be put off by any narrow or unlucky losses over the formative weeks of the season.
Thank you for listening (assuming you didn't get bored and fuck off ten minutes ago
)
