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The Cheltenham Festival 2016
- Thread starter ONEDUNME
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ONEDUNME
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Chaps Novices handicap chase (Last race day 1 - Tuesday 15th March). I have a tip for Double Shuffle in this one. Currently 20/1 but will start shorter when the field thinks out. I've had some 20/1 but will have some more when NRNB is accounced.
By the way, a horse owned by the same owners as Double Shuffle runs on Saturday. No prices up yet but it may be worth having a look at Bun Doran in your Saturday paper.
By the way, a horse owned by the same owners as Double Shuffle runs on Saturday. No prices up yet but it may be worth having a look at Bun Doran in your Saturday paper.
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ONEDUNME
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Day 2 Wednesday 16th March
Neptune Novice Hurdle
People seemed to be expressing all sorts of doubts about the fav prior to its run the other Saturday but the price suggests that it's put all of those doubts to bed with that run. Still a pretty short price though.
Neptune Novice Hurdle
People seemed to be expressing all sorts of doubts about the fav prior to its run the other Saturday but the price suggests that it's put all of those doubts to bed with that run. Still a pretty short price though.
Punter
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Excellent stuff ODM
I’m getting quite excited now!
Not sure why though as it usually costs me.
I’m still only on one horse at present, Gibralfaro in the Triumph Hurdle. Backed it in January in a small e.w double with Russe Blanc, who duly obliged @ 20/1. I’ve got Gibralfaro @ 16/1, he’s won again since and is now 8/1, joint 3rd favourite.
With a potentially nice payout from such a small stake on Gibralfaro I’m going to allow myself to cover the other 3 leaders in the market too. I’m convinced the winner will come from here and the prices are there.
Early thoughts on the Gold Cup are split stakes on Djakdam and Cue Card.
I do know that Jonjo really likes More of That, and that’s one I’ll be on. Entered in two races at present. A racegoer I know went with sponsors to Warwick a couple of weeks ago, race was won by one of Jonjo’s. Speaking to him afterwards about this coming Cheltenham, More of That was the one he talked about. Good Cheltenham form with 4 wins out of 4 and 7/8 all tracks.
The Champion Hurdle has become interesting since the two Mullins withdrawals. Annie Power is the favourite but with what I think is the weakest Champion Hurdle in a while, I’m swaying more to an e.w bet on The New One.
Yanworth and Thistlecrack are favourites that I’m going to back, but I’ll include one e.w pick to go with them.
I’m ignoring Shaneshill’s last race as it was run on good ground and had a jockey change. Currently entered in 3, he could win at a decent price. I’d expect to see Ruby back in the saddle before parting with my cash though.
I’m getting quite excited now!
Not sure why though as it usually costs me.
I’m still only on one horse at present, Gibralfaro in the Triumph Hurdle. Backed it in January in a small e.w double with Russe Blanc, who duly obliged @ 20/1. I’ve got Gibralfaro @ 16/1, he’s won again since and is now 8/1, joint 3rd favourite.
With a potentially nice payout from such a small stake on Gibralfaro I’m going to allow myself to cover the other 3 leaders in the market too. I’m convinced the winner will come from here and the prices are there.
Early thoughts on the Gold Cup are split stakes on Djakdam and Cue Card.
I do know that Jonjo really likes More of That, and that’s one I’ll be on. Entered in two races at present. A racegoer I know went with sponsors to Warwick a couple of weeks ago, race was won by one of Jonjo’s. Speaking to him afterwards about this coming Cheltenham, More of That was the one he talked about. Good Cheltenham form with 4 wins out of 4 and 7/8 all tracks.
The Champion Hurdle has become interesting since the two Mullins withdrawals. Annie Power is the favourite but with what I think is the weakest Champion Hurdle in a while, I’m swaying more to an e.w bet on The New One.
Yanworth and Thistlecrack are favourites that I’m going to back, but I’ll include one e.w pick to go with them.
I’m ignoring Shaneshill’s last race as it was run on good ground and had a jockey change. Currently entered in 3, he could win at a decent price. I’d expect to see Ruby back in the saddle before parting with my cash though.
ONEDUNME
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My memory is shit and I'll have to have a look trough last years Cheltenham thread but I have a feeling that I backed More of that antepost last year for Cheltenham in about three races (and possibly for the national as well) only for it to end up not running. Thanks for flagging it up as I'll get on it as soon as no runner no bet comes into play -which should be by the back end of next week
rcgills
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Cheltenham 2017? You're keen aren't you? Can you not get this year's one out of the way before you start on next year's?
Seen
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Is there actually any real benefit in backing horses this early (or earlier) for Cheltenham? I'm not saying there isn't, it's just that so many factors can change right up until the day of the race which I feel would outweigh the potentially slightly better odds you'd get backing early.
ONEDUNME
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To answer your question Seen, there is certainly no benefit in backing horses this early for Cheltenham 2017 (as RC and Punter have kindly- if somewhat sarcastically pointed out to me the pair of bastards 
).
It's my view that the "value" gained from backing horses antepost has always been more a perception than a reality. Everyone remembers (and lets everyone else know about) the horse they've got at 40/1 that's going off at 8/1 but the ones that they've backed that don't even make the line up and leave them without a run for their money won't ghet much of a mention.
As I say, that's pretty much always been the case but in the last half dozen years and ABSOLUTELY in the last three it's nothing more than an exercise in either blatant optimism or downright stupidity. Obviously myself and Mr Punter still do it and I'll leave you to make your mind(s) up in which of those categories we fit (here's a clue, I can't even get the fucking year of the race right, so what chance of picking a winner eh?_
).It's my view that the "value" gained from backing horses antepost has always been more a perception than a reality. Everyone remembers (and lets everyone else know about) the horse they've got at 40/1 that's going off at 8/1 but the ones that they've backed that don't even make the line up and leave them without a run for their money won't ghet much of a mention.
As I say, that's pretty much always been the case but in the last half dozen years and ABSOLUTELY in the last three it's nothing more than an exercise in either blatant optimism or downright stupidity. Obviously myself and Mr Punter still do it and I'll leave you to make your mind(s) up in which of those categories we fit
(here's a clue, I can't even get the fucking year of the race right, so what chance of picking a winner eh?_
ONEDUNME
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Just posted that before I lost it but, to continue... There's a false idea in the minds of a good many punters that bookies (no matter how small their operations) can't lose. It's bollocks. The big firms with their fixed terminals and massive customer base won't lose in the long term (although many of them have posted losses in recent years - William Hill springs to mind) but the smaller outfits and the men with the satchels on the rails aren't guaranteed to be raking it in.
BUT, having said that, this time of the year is an absolute fucking charity collection for them. Price up all 28 races and watch the money come in, knowing full well that, even without the dreaded injury, illness, adverse whether (ground) conditions that can scupper a punter's horse before the race, some of the fuckers are entered into two or three races so there's a big chance that you won't even have to worry about the punter even getting a sniff of a chance of getting his dosh back.
Added to that, a punter with a whisper is desperate to get his bet on and grab the (perceived) early value and many of them don't bet all year round and therefore will not have an account with every bookie to enable them to compare prices, so your prices don't even have to be competitive. I'm convinced that, with the exception of the "steamers" that are caused by Cheltenham Forums/TV previews/Cheltenham live previews/Pricewise and (God forbid) the odd actual real gamble by a stable or owner, you have a more than even chance of getting a better price on the day than you will right now. In the big field handicaps, I'd put that at more like a 4/6 chance. That's not even taking into account the bookies offers of free bets, matched bets, faller insurance and extra places for each way bets (which, let's face it, you'd be stupid not to take into account) that will be available on the week.
My advice would be to treat any early bet as you would a lottery ticket and expect it to be money that you won't see again, unless you're betting in the high profile races that are already no runner-no bet. Hold your Fire until the weekend after this one coming up and you will start to see the bookies going NRNB - starting with the excellent Bet365
BUT, having said that, this time of the year is an absolute fucking charity collection for them. Price up all 28 races and watch the money come in, knowing full well that, even without the dreaded injury, illness, adverse whether (ground) conditions that can scupper a punter's horse before the race, some of the fuckers are entered into two or three races so there's a big chance that you won't even have to worry about the punter even getting a sniff of a chance of getting his dosh back.
Added to that, a punter with a whisper is desperate to get his bet on and grab the (perceived) early value and many of them don't bet all year round and therefore will not have an account with every bookie to enable them to compare prices, so your prices don't even have to be competitive. I'm convinced that, with the exception of the "steamers" that are caused by Cheltenham Forums/TV previews/Cheltenham live previews/Pricewise and (God forbid) the odd actual real gamble by a stable or owner, you have a more than even chance of getting a better price on the day than you will right now. In the big field handicaps, I'd put that at more like a 4/6 chance. That's not even taking into account the bookies offers of free bets, matched bets, faller insurance and extra places for each way bets (which, let's face it, you'd be stupid not to take into account) that will be available on the week.
My advice would be to treat any early bet as you would a lottery ticket and expect it to be money that you won't see again, unless you're betting in the high profile races that are already no runner-no bet. Hold your Fire until the weekend after this one coming up and you will start to see the bookies going NRNB - starting with the excellent Bet365