The whip rule change and favourite stats

[ONEDUNME]

It's an often repeated "fact" that the favourites win about a third of all races (a higher percentage in non-handicaps and a lower percentage in handicaps and, obviously, variations on individual courses). Small sample I know (over 250 races though) but the average since the whip rule changes is currently below 29%.

Is anyone surprised?

Can it even be attributed to the whip rule change or is it just an expected fluctuation?

If it can be attributed to the market uncertainty due to the whip rule change, will that eventually correct itself as punters get to grips with what they actually mean to a race?

Any thoughts?​

 

[Seen]

Far too small a sample size to tell, also don't forget that Oct and Nov are the worst months for favs on the flat (the only months where the favs win at less than 31%....Oct at 29.7% / Nov at 28.6%.

One thing is sure - those horses who are lazy buggers and need plenty of 'encouragement' early or mid-race are going to find it a lot harder to win races now.

 

[ONEDUNME]

Thanks for the Oct/Nov pointer Seen. Didn't know that.

Yes I know the sample is small and my own feeling is that the percentage will right itself whatever happens. It just occurred to me that the percentage of favs winning might be some sort of indicator as to how much of a grip the market has on the likely winners which in turn might be a clue as to when punters have got their heads around how the whip rule is going to change races.

With the seasonal variation and the fact that the whip rule is due to be revised anyway, it's probably a moot point

 

[ONEDUNME]

Well it's certainly heading in the right direction. Percentage of favs winning since the whip ban was introduced is now at around 31.6%.

Percentage of favs winning in the last week? Over 34.7%.