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Thurs 18th Aug

S

SAMOAN

Guest
Profitable, if frustrating day yesterday and hopeful of a winner or two with the following :-

3:05 York - SMARTY SOCKS - Does blow it at the start too much, but is a very talented horse, with plenty of big field experience. Would need everything to drop right, but a big danger.

2:20 Hamilton - GLAMOROUS ANGEL - Likely type on breeding and the stable had a recent debutante winner.

5:30 Southwell - MISS EXCEL - New surface and longer trip to contend with, but should stay the trip and related to AW winners, so hopeful on both counts.

7:40 Southwell - SCRUFFY SKIP - Likes it here and is very well handicapped. Just the sort to pop up out of nowhere, but admittedly does need to leave some below par efforts behind.

4:05 Hamilton - KEY BREEZE - Small EW bet on this one. Won2 ago and ran OK LTO over a trip that stretches him.

7:35 Tipperary - DAWN ECLIPSE - I believe that this filly is up to this sort of level and therefore, must have an EW punt at 50's.

I have also backed the mounts of Matt Griffiths and Keilan Woods at Stratford this afternoon. They are 2 of my favourite young jockeys and all have chances.
 
York 2.30 Gamilati 2 pts win @ 6.2
Angels Will Fall 1 pt win @ 5.5

trade out 3 pts @ 1.33

beamer

Sorry, thought I'd posted.
 
York 2.30 Gamilati 2 pts win @ 6.2
Angels Will Fall 1 pt win @ 5.5
Click to expand...

Both unplaced. Theory was the was some inverse value in backing the far side runners as the 1st race was a fluke. Got it completely wrong, with the stands rail looking dry 4f-2f out.

York 3.05 Harrison George 1.5 pts E/W @ 9/1

Following on with my ground theory, I'm looking for a runner who tracks the pace, can easily come stands side and handles the ground. Hannagan up first time in a while, but the horse has unusually been slowly away, when he generally tracks pace.

beamer
 
York 3.05 Harrison George 1.5 pts E/W @ 9/1
Click to expand...

6th. had a short list of 3, with Prime Exhibit and Navajo Chief, which were winner and 3rd.
 
ham 4.05 Amazing Star 3 pts win @ 11/2

Although clear fav and a competetive race, I do think AS is overpriced. Decent run lto behind a horse raised 7lb, comes here off same mark with a 5lb claimer on board. Probably better on softer ground but there is juice in the ground and the extra 1f looks ideal although he's unproven over 9f ( hence the lay back).

Trainer 2/7=29% here this season and in great form this month.

beamer
 
South 5.00 Can Can Dance 1 pt win @ 10.5
Himalayan Moon 2 pts win @ 5.6

Bit of an experiment this but I have backed them. Basically looking at jocks ability rather than form of horses primarily.

Short list: Ivanov. Too short with trip question.
Nonou. Big layoff.
Dunaskin. Tricky one because he could win if recapturing old form.
Son Of Sophie
revolving World. Getting old and little form.

Leaving Himalayan Moon. Great jock/ trainer record and horse looks set up for race.

Can Can Dancer. Jockey done well on limited evidence and horses last run was promising.

beamer
 
Frustrating day again, with only the Keilan Woods mount saving me. SMARTY SOCKS, missed the break again, but fought back to lead inside the last. Just started to drift right near the line and got picked up. DAWN ECLIPSE, was 4th again ! at a big price and I still think she can win at this level. KEY BREEZE also ran a nice race, but was a close up 5th ( 4 places )
 
Nightmare day for me with a loss of 12 pts. Ivanov won, who was a decent qualifier on jock ground but was 3.7 when I looked then drifts out to 5.4.

beamer
 
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