TRENDS

[jtw1]

GOODWOOD 3.20 - CELEBRATION MILE [thanks to racecaller for stats]
-------------------------------------

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 4-4-22

4yo: 1-4-19
5yo: 4-1-12
6yo+: 1-2-11
3yos have taken 4 of the last 10 renewals, including the last 3. 3 of the 4 winners aged 3 had run in the St James Palace Stakes and all 4 winning 3yos had finished in first 5 in a major 2yo race (2 Dewhurst, 1 Middle Park & 1 Royal Lodge)


10/10 had won over 7f or further
9/10 came from the first 4 in the betting [ favs won 3 but 8 from 10 favs were returned under 5/4 so not a great record for the shorties]

8/10 had won a G2 or 3 race
7/10 finsihed in the first 3 LTO [2 others were unp in a G1]
7/10 had finished in the first 5 in a G1 [2 others had never ran in G1 company]
GODOLPHIN have won 4/10 [last years winner was disq so technically 3/10]


RIGGINS and SET THE TREND have never won at Group level
EMERALD COMMANDER and PREMIO LOCO were unp LTO and neither in G1 company .
BEACON LODGE was 6th in his only venture into G1 grade


That leaves last years winner and probable Fav POETS VOICE and the sole 3yo runner DUBAWI GOLD.


2 things direct me towards the Hannon runner , 1 - POETS VOICE has not been out since March 26th and , 2 , the recent record of the 3yo's .
Also the selection was given an 8 week break before running 4th in the Hungerford 14 days ago , here's hoping that will have brought him to peak fitness



Stake 10pts - DUBAWI GOLD @ 9/2


Will update profit/loss after this

 

[jtw1]

DUBAWI GOLD 1st @ 3/1

 

[beamer]

Easy winner. I got nervous when I thought he was going to get trappped.

Well done

beamer

 

[jtw1]

lets see what we can make of the SELECT STAKES , a G3 over 10f at Goodwood tomorrow.

10/10 were rated 104+ [9/10 were 106+]
10/10 had won at 9f+ [7/10 at 10f]
9/10 had won at least at LISTED level
9/10 were placed 1st - 4th , the other was 7th but only btn just over 3l in a G1.
9/10 were returned at single figure odds , only 3 favs and they were evens , 4/6 and 8/13.
6/10 were aged 4+ , inc 4 of the past 5.

The ratings rule out MAC LOVE [102] , CELIDH HOUSE [102] , OPERA GAL [101] , MEASURING TIME [100] and SLUMBER [101].

KARAM ALBAARI has never won beyond Cl5 , although he has been competing in G1 - 3 grade in his other 3 career races.
He has never tackled beyond 8f.

That leaves 2 and the 3yo and probable fav , FRENCH NAVY , could be potentially a very good import from France .
A 3 time winner over there , where he has won 3 of his 4 races inc a G3 on G/S .
His one defeat was in a G1 btn 10l behind RODERIC O'CONNOR on heavy going.
His one run in the UK was a win in a CL2 over 10f .

NATIONALISM is a 4yo who has won at LISTED grade on G/S and significantly won over 9f at GOODWOOD which is a distinct advantage imo.
Don't worry about the fact that N McKAY rides as he has won on him before [actually in that 9f race here]
Given a 7 week rest before running into 6th in a G3 at York 22 days ago , that should have brought him back to near full fitness imo and i think the recent advantage of older runners against the 3yo's just gives him the edge over FRENCH NAVY esp at 3 times the odds.

Stake 10pts NATIONALISM @ 6/1

 

[fc basher]

Lets go im following you here jtw1,single ew,and Its in the first leg of my scoop6 bet

 

[jtw1]

Bugger it !! picked the wrong one from the 2 .....sorry Basher

 

[fc basher]

No probs jtw1, didnt hit the scoop6 either,your efforts are second to none

 

[jtw1]

The Cambridgeshire [according to racecaller]
-------------------

AGE - No advantage imo
WEIGHT - discount those over 9:06
DRAW - Those in the top 10 in the draw have a record of 1-12-100 so discount those .
CLASS - 10/10 ran in Cl3+ LTO
SIZE OF FIELD - 9/10 Won a race with over 14 runners
HANDICAPS - 10/10 won no more than 4
DISTANCE - 8/10 had won over over 10f

That leaves 5 , with 4 at very decent odds , so i suggest 2pts win DARE TO DANCE @ 9/1.
2pts win on each of the following CIRCUMVENT @ 28/1 [PP] , IDEOLOGY @ 50/1 [Lads] , CONSTANT CONTACT @ 50/1 [Lads] and NICE STYLE @ 40/1 [Lads]

 

[jtw1]

Trends aplenty regarding the ARC so lets have a look at the one of the supporting races

12.10 - Prix Cadran - 2m4f G1 4yo+ [thanx to racecaller.com]
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AGE - It would appear that 8yo+ , not surprisingly, have a 10 year record of 0-4-12 which would take KASBAH BLISS out

GENDER - Females have a record of 0-2-9 , the last female winner was back in '94 so the odds are against TERRE DU VENT , ELYAADI and MARIA ROYAL.

CLASS - 10/10 had won at LISTED/GROUP level which takes out SILVER VALNY

The last 8 winners had all ran within 30 days , TRES ROCK DANON and GENTOO have been off-track for 42 days.

Perhaps the most informative stat is that of the past 7 French-trained winners no less than 6 had ran in the Prix Gladieteur last time out , finishing 2,1,1,3,2,1.

The 3 left all ran in that race but only 1 was placed and that was the winner , LEY HUNTER .
I would have preferred the going to be on the Softer side of Good , and the probable danger is stable mate BRIGANTIN who will find the going much more to his liking .

Stake 7pts @ 7/2 LEY HUNTER
Stake 3pts @ 4/1 BRIGANTIN

 

[jtw1]

Saturday - CHARLIE HALL CHASE [stats thanks to Racecaller]
--------------------------------

The NH season starts here !!

9/10 were making their seasonal [Chase] debut
9/10 had won a Graded Chase worth 25k+
9/10 had won over at least 3m
9/10 were returned in the first 4 in the market
8/10 were rated 151+
5/10 had ran in a Chase at that years Aintree festival

Looking at todays winning times it would appear the ground is definately on the SOFT side of Good .

8 declared is actually quite good for this race and the first 2 to be dropped are the 250/1 and 66/1 shots ACRAI RUA and CHEIF DAN GEORGE.

CHICAGO GREY has raced this season and has never won a Graded race .

TIME FOR RUPERT has yet to win a Graded Chase [won 2 Novice events] and found one or two better in Graded Hurdles races .
Unlucky when bursting a blood vessel last time out in the RSA and still has to prove himself in top company over Fences .
On the plus side the stable is in winning form.

POQUELIN has yet to win past 21f and Nicholls doesn't have the best record in recent season's. in this race.
If this were Cheltenham i'd give him a better chance , Ruby Walsh on board is a definate plus.

DIAMOND HARRY has won first time out in all his 5 racing season's , won two Graded Chase's [Hennessy] and the Ground and Distance suit .
At first glance it looked as thought the stable is out of sorts with no wins from 7 runners in the past 14 days but on closer inspection the Faller and UR had seemed to be coming into contention when having their mishaps and three placings [ inc one at 25/1 ] indicate a winner is in the offing .

NACARAT won this last season and has proven form in Grade , Ground and Distance.
Will have to give at least 4lb's to every other runner but with no entry in the Paddy Power or Hennessy it would seem to me that this race is , once again , early season target.

WEIRD AL has won 3 of his 4 career debuts and has won a Graded Chase over C/D.
Disappointed after a winning debut at Carlisle last season as he went on to finish 42l off level weights behind DIAMOND HARRY in the Hennessy before breaking a blood vessel in the Gold Cup .
Changed stables since then so it will be interesting to see how he goes as a change of scenery usually has a positive effect , at least in the first race or two.
However he has a bit to find on the others in contention .

Summary - Not very original but the record of DIAMOND HARRY first time out as well as his winning form in Graded races makes him a worthy selection @ 11/4

NACARAT could be the danger

STAKE 10pts @ 11/4