English Npower League 1 & 2 bettting 13-16th Oct

I'm going to sit on the fence and agree with both of you. The league table and recent form both favour Rochdale, but their home draws are a concern, and Morecambe can be stubborn away from home (well, we couldn't break them down, but we can't break anyone down at the moment ) so I've not risked the draw. I reckon there's come value in Rochdale (0) at Bet365's 9/20 and I've had about six units.

Time for my first post on a football thread this season

I like the price of Crawley to win @ 4/6 there 6th in the table and should easily beat Bury who are bottom, At home Crawley have played 5 winning 3 and losing 2, 1 of those losses being to Tranmere. Bury have played 5 away drawing 3 and losing 2. Crawley will win so ill be taking there price to win and also putting a small bet on Kyle Mcfadzean to score anytime @ 17/2 with paddy power. Yes he's a defender but he has scored 2 in 9 appearances so far this season.

League two wise i cant look past a bradford + Gillingham double there two sides ive had marked down to do well this season and Gillinghams form is amazing, Bradford are a good side as well and i can see them edging out York. So double for me @ 3.23

I'm on Bradford too; 5 units at BetVic's 21/20. Bradford have stalled a little, but their home form is generally solid. I was unimpressed with York when I saw them at Aldershot a couple of weeks ago and I think a better team than us should do okay against them (York beat us 2-0, but that's more a reflection on Aldershot than York )

Dale had a player sent off v Daggers when they were winning,had a player sent off v Bradford,had 67% possession v Cobblers ,a game in which they had 6 new players bedding in and more shots on goal than Burton.

Those would be the stats that Id go by.

Also,if Dale had had the rub of the green in a couple of those games they wouldn't be available at Evens+.

Its arguably BECAUSE the bookies know that many punters won't look at the stats Ive just given,rather the straight win draw lose stats that this COULD indeed be a touch of value.

(Needless to say,I know rcgills would be aware of this,this is just for any new members)


Having said that,I aint gonna be on the result,Im gonna be on Dale for promotion

Anyway Punter can walk on water at the moment ...so its 2-0 Dale

...on the other hand (and playing Devil's Advocate rather than believing it) is there a counter argument that two concerns should be Rochdale's lack of discipline costing them red cards and an inability to convert posession and chances into goals?

I believe that the bookies would base their price partly on Dales home record since we all agree that many/most? punters simply consult the win draw loss stats.

The shots on goal point Id say is relatively moot since theres no logical reason why it'd be worse at home than away,is there?

So that leaves the sendings off.

My point there would be that odds compilers don't worry about such details.They simply don't need to.

Instead they ask,whats the simplest interpretation of the stats.

I mean they are not going to attempt to work out how many punters are going to conclude that Dales 2 home sendings off mean they lack discipline and will therefore bet on Morcambe...cos it'd be impossible and of course for every person who thinks that way they'd expect to be at least one who thinks that Dale would have won if they'd had 10 men.

But,of course,even if the bookies DID think that enough people would bet on Morcambe due to Dales disciplinary record then surely thats even more reason to bet on Dale ....since their price will reflect their recent disciplinary record...whereas its likely to be a statistical quirk.


Anyway,TC,your Devils Advocate has totally confused me....and thus Ill be on the 2-2

Right,that does it for me..........Morcambe it is

Well,I actually meant that Ive changed my mind from one to the other-my final choice being Morcambe(just Morcambe)

But,funnily enough,the example you gave would be the kind of thing I do if Im gonna bet in running

Seriously,I wont be betting on this game.As you say,its a shit weekend.GOD How I hate international fucking breaks.

Gillingham -0.75 at BetVic's 40/45. Gillingham of course top and apparently hammered Oxford last week in everything except getting past an inspired goalkeeper. We can keep it reasonably tight at the back, but scoring is a problem.

The way I see the game panning out is that Gillingham have nearly all the pressure and at some time break through our defence, then we have to go forward. We'll then have to take a few risks, a second home goal will be more likely than an Aldershot one.

Well Crawley won me and tmo who is in the comp went to it, A good win but took its time 93rd minute winner, It was a crap match tbh until the last 5 minutes. Crawley threw away a 2-0 lead two goals from headers which should of been defended better. Hit the cross bar a minute before they scored the winner and even that was a mishit cross that looped in Bradford let down my league two double

Bad day for me with only Gillingham slaughtering Aldershot to come in . On the other hand my first antepost of the season came in (League of Ireland) so that's lifted the mood.

1.5 units at Bet365's 4/1 for Tom Pope first goalscorer for Port Vale v Oxford. He's Vale's spearhead, wih around hald their goals. Vale score more than they concede at home, so this playes the stats. I don't like the around evens for him to score anytime.

Oxford are picking up a little - some of their long-term injured are coming back, and they're unbeaten in four (edit - I think it's only three) in all competitions.

Port Vale are without their captain(?) ang are likely to have a teenager in goal playing only his second game.

The bookies have Vale at shorter than evens, and I think that's about right so I wouldn't try to put anyone off. I'm awaiting teams but I'm very tempted by the draw.