Outsiders for the Play offs

[Punter]

I've just backed 4 outsiders for promotion in Leagues 1 & 2

They are longshots and my picks could all be out the running by 5pm this afternoon. But it may also be possible for one of them to go on and win their remaining 4 games. That's pretty much the minmum requirement needed to make the chance of the play offs happen though.

League 1
Brentford £6 @ 25/1
Stevenage £3.75 @ 40/1

League 2
Gillingham £4.55 @ 33/1
Rotherham £4.55 @ 33/1

I've backed them all to win £150 each, in the chance that if it does happen i'll have some in play money to use when the play offs start.

Having looked at all their remaining fixtures it's probably a case of 'a fool and his money are easily parted' especially as Brentford and Stevanage meet but it's an ante post hope for the end of the season and i'm in.

 

[ONEDUNME]

I'm on Leicester from early in the season. I thought they were right out of it until I looked at the table last night and I was pleasantly surprised to see that they are only three points out of the PO zone.

There's always one team who comes with a late rattle and takes a PO place and there are about 8 teams scrapping for the bottom two places in the play offs. None of them can afford to lose and, inevitably, some of them will be playing each other on the run in (eg anything less than a victory by Derby against Boro will drop them out of the race). Burnley have Leicester and Blackpool to play but if you want a decent outsider, Hull are only four points off sixth spot and have three very winable fixtures and a last game away to West Ham who, I would suggest, will be out of the automatic battle and in no danger of falling out of the PO zone and therefore able to rest players ahead of the play offs.

A massive 50/1 if you want a shot at it. I have.

 

[Punter]

I actually went to take Leicester last night but the price was a bit to short and left them in the end, i wish i'd of taken them earlier in the season as i've fancied them all along. Hull are an interesting one, i just havent fancied their chances since Pearson left and Barmby took over and i thought i was going to be proved right when they lost 5 on the trot but that was a good win last week against Boro and they have a chance again now. Thats a good point about the West Ham fixture ODM.

 

[Punter]

I've just backed 4 outsiders for promotion in Leagues 1 & 2

They are longshots and my picks could all be out the running by 5pm this afternoon. But it may also be possible for one of them to go on and win their remaining 4 games. That's pretty much the minmum requirement needed to make the chance of the play offs happen though.

League 1
Brentford £6 @ 25/1
Stevenage £3.75 @ 40/1

League 2
Gillingham £4.55 @ 33/1
Rotherham £4.55 @ 33/1

I've backed them all to win £150 each, in the chance that if it does happen i'll have some in play money to use when the play offs start.

Having looked at all their remaining fixtures it's probably a case of 'a fool and his money are easily parted' especially as Brentford and Stevanage meet but it's an ante post hope for the end of the season and i'm in.

With two games to go Stevenage have made it into the last play off spot but they face a very tricky game away at Sheff Utd this weekend, they are now into 7/1. Brentford's chances are extremely slim and they are now out to 150/1.

That leaves Carlisle and Notts County, County are best priced @ 16/1, they are away at Wycombe this weekend who could get themselves out of the relegation zone with a win. Carlisle look to have a better chance, they are at home to another team in the bottom 4, Exeter. Exeter could still escape but they do look doomed to me. With that in mind i've checked the odds on Carlisle and was surprised to see 40/1 @ BetVictor, so for an added bit of hope i've taken that price too now, taking my total outlay on both divisions to £22.60

Notts C' are still very much in it and could do me, but i am still in with a shout here

League 1
Brentford £6 @ 25/1
Stevenage £3.75 @ 40/1
Carlisle £3.75 @ 40/1

Remaining Fixtures..
Brentford v Sheff Wed
Carlilse v Exeter
Wycombe v Notts County
Sheff Utd v Stevenage

Chesterfield v Brentford
Notts County v Colchester
Oldham v Carlisle
Stevanage v Bury

My League 2 bets look doomed now...

Rotherham have no real chance and are out to 150/1 while Gillingham have drifted slightly to 40/1. I cant see the Gills getting there, they have two winable games but Crewe, Oxford and Cheltenham are in good enough form to fight it out between themselves.

League 2
Gillingham £4.55 @ 33/1
Rotherham £4.55 @ 33/1

So, i've pretty much given up on League two but remain hopeful in league one.

 

[rcgills]

If Gillingham win their two remaining games, I do still think they'll make the playoffs. Unfortunately I'm not convinced they'll win those two games.

Dodgy as their recent form is, I can't see Cheltenham not picking up the points they need from Bradford at home and Plymouth away. That leaves most likely Crewe, Oxford and Gillingham fighting it out for one remaining place (personally I'm not sure Rotherham and even Aldershot can be entirely ruled out, as I'll mention in a minute, although according to Oddschecker, only Coral are offering a price on Aldershot for promotion @ 250/1, maybe I'm missing something ).

This weekend, Crewe go to Torquay and Oxford are at home to Southend - both teams still in with a shout of automatic promotion. I'm hopeful that Crewe will lose, and with Oxford on a run of 6 without a win, I'd say a draw is perfectly possible in that one. If Gills beat Northampton (probably the biggest "if" of all), that'd leave Crewe with 70 and Gills and Oxford level on 69 going into the final weekend. Gills would have the edge over Oxford either on goals scored (if we beat Northampton by 1 goal) or on goal difference if we won by 2 or more.

The final weekend sees Oxford away to Port Vale, Gills at home to Morecambe and Crewe at home to Aldershot. If the above scenario did occur, and if Gills beat Morecambe, Oxford would need to not only beat Port Vale, but beat them by at least one goal more than Gills beat Morecambe by (or an even bigger margin if Gills were to beat Northampton by more than one goal).

As for Crewe v Aldershot - if Aldershot beat Rotherham this weekend, Crewe lose to Torquay, and Oxford don't beat Southend, then as far as I can see, Aldershot would be still in with a (very, very) slim chance. They'd be 3 behind Crewe, and with a GD which would be no more than 4 goals inferior to Crewe's - the difference is currently 6 goals, but to be in with a shout, they'd need to win this weekend and Crewe lose, which would mean a minimum two goal swing in Aldershot's favour on the GD. If they could just make it a 3 goal swing rather than two, that'd leave them "only" needing to win by 2 away to Crewe on the last day to overtake Crewe (while obviously hoping Gillingham and Oxford also slip up). Now am I missing something which means that's not actually possible, or have the bookies been slightly premature in writing them off completely?

Personally, I think the Gills will beat Northampton this weekend, other results will go our way, and on the last weekend, we'll lose at home to Morecambe and it will turn out that a win would've seen us make it. If you think that seems unduly pessimistic, look at last season, where we lost our last two home games, both 4-2, to Macclesfield and Barnet, and ended up missing out on the playoffs on goal difference

 

[Punter]

You wont lose at home to Morecambe, Rc, no chance, they're pony.

I dont think Aldershot stand a chance even if they were to win their last two games either.

Good luck with the Gills though, obviously i'll be cheering them on but personally i think it will be between Crewe, Oxford and Cheltenham for the two places.

 

[rcgills]

You wont lose at home to Morecambe, Rc, no chance, they're pony.

So were Macclesfield and Barnet last year. And Morecambe won at Oxford last month too. Trust me, it's the Gillingham way of doing things, do the hard work (like beating Swindon last weekend), then mess up the easy bit.

 

[ThunderCelt]

I haven't done anything like the detailed analysis that everyone else has done, but I can't see that Rc is missing anything re Aldershot - but I'd love to be proved wrong

 

[hotspur]

RE Aldershot 250-1 for promotion,rcgills

I believe you are correct.And I believe the reason only coral have a price is cos their price is taking the piss.
Its at least a 500-1(probably 600-1+unless Ive made a big error-havnt checked) shot and bookies dont tend to want to offer such a big price (on such a market)as just a few bets might unbalance their books to some extent.
theyd rather wait to see how the land lies after this weekend and then offer a price on the shots.

 

[hotspur]

I was actually really curious to know how much Coral would be prepared to take on this bet so I phoned em up and asked to bet 300 pounds on it(its ok,thats in no way any indication of any funds I may or may not have!-its a theoretical 300)...and after 4 minutes of deliberation they offerd me 100-1for the 300....and my response was,of course

 

[hotspur]

LOL,just checked on oddschecker and,yep,its now 100-1

ooops

 

[rcgills]

RE Aldershot 250-1 for promotion,rcgills

I believe you are correct.And I believe the reason only coral have a price is cos their price is taking the piss.
Its at least a 500-1(probably 600-1+unless Ive made a big error-havnt checked) shot and bookies dont tend to want to offer such a big price (on such a market)as just a few bets might unbalance their books to some extent.
theyd rather wait to see how the land lies after this weekend and then offer a price on the shots.

I'd agree with you (good grief, that's twice in two days, must go and see a doctor ) that 250/1 is on the skinny side. If anyone was considering their chances of making the playoffs, it'd surely work out a better price.

Taking this week for starters, you'd need Aldershot to beat Rotherham, Torquay to beat Crewe and Oxford not to beat Southend. Not really much use taking anything from Gillingham's game this weekend, as even if they won, it still wouldn't rule Aldershot out. Best price on that treble is currently 8.77 on Stan James.

Obviously what you'd need (and the prices you'd get on it) for the final weekend is all guesswork. I'm not really one for working out what I think prices should be, but chances are you'd need Aldershot to beat Crewe by 2 or more (Southend -1.5 at Oxford this weekend is 7.2, I'd say Aldershot winning by that margin at Crewe is less likely, but we'll call it 6/1), Morecambe to beat Gillingham (they were 6/1 to win at Oxford last month, think even erring on the side of caution we could easily say 4/1 there??) and Oxford to lose to Port Vale (2.4-ish??).

Which would give you around 735/1.

Bet Corals are beating the punters off with a shitty stick at 100/1, tight gits

 

[hotspur]

I suspect that coral were so surprised that anyone would ask to bet 300 on this bet that they cut the price not realising the true odds-thats not as far-fetched as you may think.

 

[hotspur]

Im actually trying to work out whether I should be flattered or insulted since they sort of know me

 

[Punter]

League 1
Brentford £6 @ 25/1
Stevenage £3.75 @ 40/1
Carlisle £3.75 @ 40/1

League 2
Gillingham £4.55 @ 33/1
Rotherham £4.55 @ 33/1

Stevenage make the Play Offs and face Sheff Utd.

Promotion odds..
Sheff Utd 2/1
Huddersfield 11/4
MK Dons 11/4
Stevenage 4/1

So far i've staked £22.60 over the two leagues, if Stevenage win the play offs i get a return of £153.75
I'm not sure how to play this now, i was hoping to come out with trebling my stake. Is it just a case of backing Sheff Utd and then waiting to see who they get in the final or is there a better option?

 

[Punter]

With Sheff Utd 2/1 to be promoted i'm going to take the chance on their price either remaining the same or drifting after tonights game, i could end up losing out but 2/1 means me staking more than i'd really want to at this stage. I just think they've lost a bit of momentum and must be feeling gutted to have lost out automatically so late on.