English Premier League betting 6 - 8th May

[slick]

English Premier League
05 May 12:45 UK Arsenal v Norwich 1.25 6.00 11.00
06 May 13:30 UK Newcastle v Man City 5.50 4.00 1.60
06 May 14:00 UK Aston Villa v Tottenham 3.75 3.60 1.95
06 May 14:00 UK Bolton v West Brom 1.95 3.75 3.60
06 May 14:00 UK Fulham v Sunderland 1.91 3.50 4.00
06 May 14:00 UK QPR v Stoke 1.91 3.50 4.00
06 May 14:00 UK Wolves v Everton 4.60 3.80 1.73
06 May 16:00 UK Man Utd v Swansea 1.20 6.50 13.00
07 May 20:00 UK Blackburn v Wigan 2.40 3.50 2.80

Odds William Hill

 

[slick]

I'll have a look at these later but Newcastle @ 5.5's surely can't be right.

 

[Rob44]

I'll have a look at these later but Newcastle @ 5.5's surely can't be right.

it was longer than that earlier in the week. i have a dnb on newcastle at something like those odds at boylesports. obviously the odds have shortened a little after the toons win against chelsea, but considering they spanked ManU 3-0 at St James's there still seems to be value.

 

[slick]

You got Newcastle DNB @ around 5.5's, now that is a good bet , I still wouldn't have took it mind as I couldn't bring myself to back against my own team but for the neutral thats a belter.

 

[hotspur]

I'll have a look at these later but Newcastle @ 5.5's surely can't be right.

Well,it is and it isnt,Slick.
Its obviously value.No question about it.Its a prime example of why it pays to save your bank early season and bet bigger in the last few weeks of the season.
Of course the 1-1 and 0-0 will be value to....

I say its also not wrong because,of course,the bookies are very rarely wrong and its a price that takes into account where the money will go ie City cos,of course,despite the fact that everyone knows about value....very,very few people,in practice,actually bet on it.....even when its staring them in the face.

That Toon price is testament to that.

Anyway,a comfortable win for City beckons...but Ill be on 1-1,the toon,0-0 and 2-2 in that order.

 

[slick]

Still doesn't look right to me considering Newcastles blisering form and Citys poor away record of late, discounting the recent Wolves and Norwich victories i.e Wolves being shite and Norwich allready packed and ready to head for the sun.

Anyhow moving on..Arsenal look nailed on but much to short for me, If I were to bet on this match I'd be looking at Arsenal -2 on the AH as this could end up an avalanche.

I'll be taking Spurs at evens now they seem to have settled down again since they found out Harrys going nowhere, I know Villa need a result and all that but so do Spurs and the way Villa are shaping up they may well find themselves amongst the relegation fodder after this match if other results don't go their way.
Villa are struggling to score at the moment and I have a feeling they will need more than a solitary goal to win this match which they don't seem to have in them.

Talking of Harry I'll also be having near evens on Bolton, it was boderline earlier on in the week but now I know Hodgson is offskies to England I should imagine the West Brom players may well now take their foot off the gas now they have nothing to prove, not that Bolton are that great at the moment but it's shit or bust time for them and if they put up any sort of a fight I expect the baggies to back off.

I also like the look of QPR at home at near evens, can't believe I'm backing two relegation fodder teams but QPR's home form lately is not to be sniffed at and unless Stoke are playing some high flyer at the Brittania they don't seem to want to know. not since Christmas anyhow.
Could turn round to bite me on the arse this bet as Stoke have in in them to turn over QPR on thier day but I'm going with my instict here and backing Rangers for the win.

I don't like the look of anything else, Wolves haven't been playing too badly since the shackles of relegation have been removed allthough I expect Everton to beat them, but at those odds it does nothing for me.
Man U should have no trouble with Swansea but I have a feeling Swansea will give them a game and it may be a lot closer than those odds suggest, plus the way United set up will depend on the result of the Newcastle v City match.

Blackburn v Wigan could go either way, suppose the value lies with Wigan on current form but they do seem to do better against quality teams willing to play football rather than getting involves in a slug fest which this match could well turn out to be.
I might change my mind nearer the time but for the time being I'm leaving well alone.

 

[Punter]

I agree with all of that Slick, especially regarding Spurs. Villa on the pitch will get little support from a half empty stadium which will be more interested protesting at Mcleish than getting behind their team. Unless they get off to a flyer and hold it then i cant see much support coming from the sidelines. Spurs must be fully motivated again as mentioned and have started to look the part again the last two games.
I was talking to a Holte ender today he said the most they could expect was a draw but wasnt too hopeful, also said that if you were to take win bonuses out of the equation then Mcleish is the 9th highest paid football manager in the world! Was he talkin shit there or not I hope Villa stay up and sort their shit out but i dont think they'll get anything here.

 

[hotspur]

just for the record,in a game like this 80+% of bets will be on Spurs which strongly suggests the price cant be value-ie why would bookies offer value on something the overwhelming majority are betting on!?(specially as many of the Spurs bets will be quite a lot bigger than Villa bets)
and of course some of the people betting on the draw or Villa will be expecting a Spurs win.

I aint saying the price aint value-I just dont understand why it would be?

 

[ONEDUNME]

just for the record,in a game like this 80+% of bets will be on Spurs which strongly suggests the price cant be value-ie why would bookies offer value on something the overwhelming majority are betting on!?.........ng

Which is exactly why the city price is so small and the Newcastle price so big. City are around 1.6 to win the title. In the minds of many (including me) to win on Saturday is to win the title so anyone expecting anything much bigger than that price is missing the point.

Of course City aren't value at that price but with so few games to go and the massive weight of money on the Premiership title dictating what each bookie has resting on this game they have no choice but to price city up as they have.

As I've mentioned before, spare a thought (if no sympathy) for Betfreds Fred Done who has already paid out on united winning the title and may have to pay out again on City winning it. Bad enough for anyone to take but with Fred being a united fan as well it must double the pain .

 

[Kegman]

I think Hodgson for England may have the opposite and spurn them on for a win v Bolton.

Everton and Arsenal are both too short but i expect them both to win.

 

[markvighan]

Blackburn v Wigan
In the round 37 of England Premier Blackburn hosts Wigan at Ewood Park Stadium.
Home team is at the 19th position on the table and visitors are 16th.
Blackburn have goal difference 47-75 and their opponents have 38-60.
In last 10 matches home team covered this line 9 times and in the last 10 matches away team covered this line 8 times.
In line with presented stats the best tip is to bet on number of goals. The line 2 or 3 goals has nice odds and it cover draw result 1:1 or win of any team 2:0, 2:1 or 3:0. You must agree these results are very frequently outcome for the football match.
Believe in this bet.

 

[ONEDUNME]

I believe brother. Welcome to Betnod

 

[hotspur]

Blackburn v Wigan
In the round 37 of England Premier Blackburn hosts Wigan at Ewood Park Stadium.
Home team is at the 19th position on the table and visitors are 16th.
Blackburn have goal difference 47-75 and their opponents have 38-60.
In last 10 matches home team covered this line 9 times and in the last 10 matches away team covered this line 8 times.
In line with presented stats the best tip is to bet on number of goals. The line 2 or 3 goals has nice odds and it cover draw result 1:1 or win of any team 2:0, 2:1 or 3:0. You must agree these results are very frequently outcome for the football match.
Believe in this bet.

By God,I think I like the cut of your jib Sir!

(Ill be on 1-2,1-3 0-2 and 2-3.....but then again thats why I usually stick to antepost bets!)

 

[hotspur]

OOOPS!!!!!didnt realise it had gone 4pm-if Wigan are 1 up I honestly had no idea-been drinking cos Rennes v Montpellier is a big,big game for me

havnt got anything on Wigan yet

 

[hotspur]

hang about-its a bleedin bank holiday-noone kicks off at 4pm on a bank holiday!!!....phew

 

[slick]

20:00 UK Liverpool v Chelsea 2.30 3.30 3.10

Well this game looks like a nightmare, Chelsea must still have aspirations of that 4th spot and god knows what sort of team KK will put out, does finishing above Everton mean that much to them?

 

[vmoses]

Liverpool almost always turns up in big games this season. For Chelsea, their must realized their chance of going to CL next year is better in an one big match than fight and hope for others to fail. LFC is it for me.

 

[markvighan]

Liverpool v Chelsea
The FA Cup final just ended and both finalists will meet again after three days in a Premier league match although they can not change anything in the table.

I expect a big lack of motivation from both sides and I believe that the most valuable bet here is a draw. The last time a draw between these two sides in a Premier league match occured quite a while ago, before four years, and I believe we are at the right time and place to take this option to happen again.

The reasons are simple: Chelsea and Liverpool have met three days ago in a much more at stake match and it had enough goals and action to prove which team currently is better, Chelsea are looking forward to the final of Champions league and in the Premier league table both sides don't have anything to fight for. Both should be happy with a 0-0 (most likely for me) or a 1-1 draw.

 

[Punter]

Welcome vmoses and markvighan

Liverpool v Chelsea
The FA Cup final just ended and both finalists will meet again after three days in a Premier league match although they can not change anything in the table.

I expect a big lack of motivation from both sides and I believe that the most valuable bet here is a draw. The last time a draw between these two sides in a Premier league match occured quite a while ago, before four years, and I believe we are at the right time and place to take this option to happen again.

The reasons are simple: Chelsea and Liverpool have met three days ago in a much more at stake match and it had enough goals and action to prove which team currently is better, Chelsea are looking forward to the final of Champions league and in the Premier league table both sides don't have anything to fight for. Both should be happy with a 0-0 (most likely for me) or a 1-1 draw.

I'd go along with that, a draw is overdue and 0-0 or 1-1 is the most likely outcome.

 

[ONEDUNME]

I'm not sure where anyone is getting the idea that Liverpool have nothing to play for and would be happy with a 0-0 draw. Have you actually looked at the league table? Liverpool are in a position that can only be described as "fucking embarrassing". All the fireworks and cheers that went off when King Kenny the saviour turned up and he's on track to lead them to their lowest finish for, what? 40 years? I don't know, I only know I can't remember them ever being this shit.

Nothing to play for? Rubbish. They'll be trying their bollocks off tonight to try to save some face. Whether than will prove to be good enough given the standard of football that they usually throw up is difficult to say but I can confidently predict that nobody with the staff at Anfield will be happy with a draw.