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2012 Six Nations Rugby Union
- Thread starter traeth
- Start date
traeth
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the handicaps for next week matches
France v Italy
France -18 1.91 Tie 17.00 Italy +18 1.91
4th of Feb 2012 2:30pm
Scotland v England
Scotland +4 1.91 Tie 17.00 England -4 1.91
4th of Feb 2012 5:00pm
Ireland v Wales
Ireland -3 1.80 Tie 17.00 Wales +3 2.00
5th of Feb 2012 2:30pm
France v Italy
France -18 1.91 Tie 17.00 Italy +18 1.91
4th of Feb 2012 2:30pm
Scotland v England
Scotland +4 1.91 Tie 17.00 England -4 1.91
4th of Feb 2012 5:00pm
Ireland v Wales
Ireland -3 1.80 Tie 17.00 Wales +3 2.00
5th of Feb 2012 2:30pm
traeth
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Three nations , France , Italy and England have new coaches so it difficult to estimate their potential , a preview from Eddie Butler that I enjoyed reading
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2012/jan/28/six-nations-2012-ireland-preview
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2012/jan/28/six-nations-2012-ireland-preview
P
Pie-chucker
Guest
Opening w/e handicaps seem a bit too damn spot-on for my liking.
A stab at revamped England overcoming the -3 might be worth a go. Will they click? Will Farrell slot them over on his first white shirt outing?
A stab at revamped England overcoming the -3 might be worth a go. Will they click? Will Farrell slot them over on his first white shirt outing?
P
Pie-chucker
Guest
Usually like to pile in on the first w/e before the camel coats start getting their handicap calibrations tuned up, but there's a lot of unknowns swirling around the place this Sat/Sun. Including weather.
France by 22
Ireland by 3
England by 5
maybe!
I'll just go with
5pts Malzieu (France) first scorer @ 9-1
and otherwise hold a cowardly watching brief.
France by 22
Ireland by 3
England by 5
maybe!
I'll just go with
5pts Malzieu (France) first scorer @ 9-1
and otherwise hold a cowardly watching brief.
traeth
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Jamie Roberts and Rhys Priestland have been passed fit for Wales' Six Nations opener in Ireland on Sunday
the squads from bbc
Wales: L Halfpenny; A Cuthbert; J Davies, J Roberts; G North; R Priestland, M Phillips; R Gill, H Bennett, A Jones, B Davies, I Evans, R Jones, S Warburton (c), T Faletau.
Replacements: K Owens, P James, A Powell, J Tipuric, L Williams, J Hook, S Williams.
Ireland: R Kearney; T Bowe, F McFadden, G D'Arcy, A Trimble; J Sexton, C Murray; C Healy, R Best, M Ross; D O'Callaghan, P O'Connell; S Ferris, S O'Brien, J Heaslip.
Replacements: S Cronin, T Court, D Ryan, P O'Mahony, R O'Gara, E Reddan, D Kearney
Wales have two young wingers who have defensive frailties , who will be tested by Ospreys wing Tommie Bowe.
I can see the Welsh centres attacking the Irish centre pairing.
Wales will struggle in the lineout .
I'm looking forward to the backrow battle.
I'm sure Ireland's nemesis Phillips will create some havoc on Sunday
nice to see you again pie
the squads from bbc
Wales: L Halfpenny; A Cuthbert; J Davies, J Roberts; G North; R Priestland, M Phillips; R Gill, H Bennett, A Jones, B Davies, I Evans, R Jones, S Warburton (c), T Faletau.
Replacements: K Owens, P James, A Powell, J Tipuric, L Williams, J Hook, S Williams.
Ireland: R Kearney; T Bowe, F McFadden, G D'Arcy, A Trimble; J Sexton, C Murray; C Healy, R Best, M Ross; D O'Callaghan, P O'Connell; S Ferris, S O'Brien, J Heaslip.
Replacements: S Cronin, T Court, D Ryan, P O'Mahony, R O'Gara, E Reddan, D Kearney
Wales have two young wingers who have defensive frailties , who will be tested by Ospreys wing Tommie Bowe.
I can see the Welsh centres attacking the Irish centre pairing.
Wales will struggle in the lineout .
I'm looking forward to the backrow battle.
I'm sure Ireland's nemesis Phillips will create some havoc on Sunday
nice to see you again pie
traeth
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my heart says Wales and I find it difficult to oppose them .
Wales have a few injury problems but they have Priestland and Roberts back , I'm not confident in their fitness and cannot see both of them lasting the 80 minutes. The Irish backrow are an excellent unit and I can see them targetting Priestland which will put him under pressure.
Ireland have a few injuries and have lost Earls , due to his child illness [ I hope his recently born daughters gets well soon ]
I'm not sure on this ODM , will have a think about and probably post tomorrow morning.
p.s. I am considering backing England -2 @ 2.0 with bet365 even though they have quite a few inexperienced players [ 3 debutants ] and a new coach .
bloody hell I'm persuading myself not to back them now
P
Pie-chucker
Guest
A win for England, but hardly a bold new dawn.
On today's games, I have Italy as 2pt favourites next week in Rome
On today's games, I have Italy as 2pt favourites next week in Rome
swooperman
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How do, Pie 
S
suirthing
Guest
All the Irish previews I have read on the net and the papers, have given a verdict for an Irish win. They are a bit Cock-a-Hoop to be honest and I am surprised, Wales beat them and beat them well in the RWC, they are saying that the Welsh pack are missing 4 key players Gethin Jenkins, Alun Wyn Jones, Luke Charteris & Dan Lydiate and Ireland will take adavantage of this, etc, etc. The same media said the big players Ireland had were too old when the lost to Wales in the RWC! These players are still in the team and they did not get any younger in the past 6 months! Brian O'Driscoll although one of these 'older' players, absence is a big loss for Ireland.
I think what the Irish media are saying is horse shit, Wales will be winning this one.
A sample of the horse shit I speak about is as follows......
Ireland have steered clear of the 'r' word in the build to the RBS 6 Nations opener against Wales on Sunday, but the chance to atone for the Rugby World Cup defeat will surely be a spur for much of the starting XV.
Kidney has made one critical change: demoting Ronan O'Gara to the bench after he found his game largely nullified by Wales when they lost in New Zealand.
It may prove important.
Ireland's dreadful kicking is a forgotten aspect of the last meeting but Wales guarded the touchlines to counter the Munster man and the failure of his efforts to ping the corners undoubtedly knocked Ireland's confidence at key moments.
Fergus McFadden starts at 13, with Brian O'Driscoll ruled out and Keith Earls forced to withdraw late due to personal reasons, but even with he and Sexton in the team, there are plenty of similarities between the last match and this one.
The importance of the collisions is one.
Jamie Roberts shuddering smash into Donncha O'Callaghan set the tone for what followed with barely two minutes gone in Wellington. Wales will be aiming to dominate the early contact situations again, as Ireland are light in places, particularly in the centres.
Gordon D'Arcy is not a particularly impactful tackler and while Earls' defensive lapses have attracted more attention, McFadden has also had occasional slips in the green jersey.
Across the three-quarters, Warren Gatland has gone for power and size with Roberts, Jon Davies, George North and Alex Cuthbert all extremely physically imposing and direct players.
There is not much fancy about the Wales backline elsewhere either - Leigh Halfpenny's polished and assured style favoured ahead of the swashbuckling James Hook.
At out-half, Rhys Priestland also goes about his business with a minimum of fuss, with impressive long passing and excellent kicking his standout attributes.
Mike Phillips is the exception - combining excellent basics with occasional flamboyant bursts, he combines a break, a slick pass and a great kicking game.
The width Priestland affords through his passing has been key to their success of late, giving Wales the scope to choose the point of contact and dictate the tackle situation.
His kicking means no defence can afford to ignore the touchlines, while Phillips must be watched as Ireland have found to their cost in the last two games.
The final ingredient is a backline-friendly back-row. In attack, openside Sam Warburton guarantees quick ball off first phase, while number eight Toby Faletau follows the ball closely and can make plays quickly when gaps appear in the open field.
Wales undoubtedly pose a thorny problem for any defensive coach.
It is up front and around the fringes that Ireland should have a clear edge.
The scrum battle did not end up being important at the World Cup but it may swing Ireland's way on home soil. Adam Jones starts at tighthead but with Wales missing Gethin Jenkins, Mike Ross and Cian Healy will expect to deliver pressure at the least, and ideally a few penalties will come their way.
The Irish lineout also looks superior - Wales are short a couple of top class operators with Dan Lydiate and Alun-Wyn Jones unavailable - where Ireland have three excellent jumpers in the two locks and Jamie Heaslip.
If Wales do come under pressure in the set-pieces, the impact of their backline will be minimised.
Ireland also have a superb set of carriers in the pack. Sean O'Brien, Stephen Ferris and Cian Healy each pose a major problem for any tackler, while Heaslip looks capable of hitting wider channels with intent again, sooner rather than later. Rory Best and O'Connell also get through plenty of work with ball in hand.
If Ireland can soften Wales up in the forwards, it may well create space and momentum for the backs - and that can bring Ireland's superior footwork into play in the centres. Andrew Trimble and Tommy Bowe are top class finishers on the wings, and Rob Kearney has shown a hugely improved ability to use his arrival into the line to convert chances into tries.
The factor which may decide the match is the performance of Conor Murray at scrum-half. If he can keep the tempo up over a couple of phases and release Ireland's main carriers fluently and consistently, having the edge at the set piece could well do the rest.
Sexton's own footwork, speed and short passing should also help Ireland get their runners going forward at the Welsh defensive line.
If the old truism that forwards decide who wins matches and backs by how much holds, Ireland should have enough to get off to a winning start.
Prediction: Ireland 22-10 Wales
Ireland v Wales, RBS 6 Nations, Aviva Stadium, Dublin, Sunday 4 February, kick-off 3pm:
Ireland: R Kearney (Leinster); T Bowe (Ospreys), F McFadden (Leinster), G D'Arcy (Leinster), A Trimble (Ulster); J Sexton (Leinster), C Murray (Munster); C Healy (Leinster), R Best (Ulster), M Ross (Leinster), D O'Callaghan (Munster), P O'Connell (Munster, capt), S Ferris (Ulster), S O'Brien (Leinster), J Heaslip (Leinster).
Replacements: S Cronin (Leinster), T Court (Ulster), D Ryan (Munster), P O'Mahony (Munster), E Reddan (Leinster), R O'Gara (Munster), D Kearney (Leinster).
Wales: L Halfpenny (Cardiff); A Cuthbert (Cardiff), J Davies (Scarlets), J Roberts (Cardiff), G North (Scarlets); R Priestland (Scarlets), M Phillips (Bayonne); R Gill (Saracens), H Bennett (Ospreys), A Jones (Ospreys), B Davies (Cardiff), I Evans (Ospreys), R Jones (Ospreys), S Warburton (Cardiff, capt), T Faletau (Newport Gwent Dragons).
Replacements: K Owens (Scarlets), P James (Ospreys), A Powell (Sale), J Tipuric (Ospreys), L Williams (Cardiff), J Hook (Perpignan), S Williams (Scarlets)
I think what the Irish media are saying is horse shit, Wales will be winning this one.
A sample of the horse shit I speak about is as follows......
Ireland have steered clear of the 'r' word in the build to the RBS 6 Nations opener against Wales on Sunday, but the chance to atone for the Rugby World Cup defeat will surely be a spur for much of the starting XV.
Kidney has made one critical change: demoting Ronan O'Gara to the bench after he found his game largely nullified by Wales when they lost in New Zealand.
It may prove important.
Ireland's dreadful kicking is a forgotten aspect of the last meeting but Wales guarded the touchlines to counter the Munster man and the failure of his efforts to ping the corners undoubtedly knocked Ireland's confidence at key moments.
Fergus McFadden starts at 13, with Brian O'Driscoll ruled out and Keith Earls forced to withdraw late due to personal reasons, but even with he and Sexton in the team, there are plenty of similarities between the last match and this one.
The importance of the collisions is one.
Jamie Roberts shuddering smash into Donncha O'Callaghan set the tone for what followed with barely two minutes gone in Wellington. Wales will be aiming to dominate the early contact situations again, as Ireland are light in places, particularly in the centres.
Gordon D'Arcy is not a particularly impactful tackler and while Earls' defensive lapses have attracted more attention, McFadden has also had occasional slips in the green jersey.
Across the three-quarters, Warren Gatland has gone for power and size with Roberts, Jon Davies, George North and Alex Cuthbert all extremely physically imposing and direct players.
There is not much fancy about the Wales backline elsewhere either - Leigh Halfpenny's polished and assured style favoured ahead of the swashbuckling James Hook.
At out-half, Rhys Priestland also goes about his business with a minimum of fuss, with impressive long passing and excellent kicking his standout attributes.
Mike Phillips is the exception - combining excellent basics with occasional flamboyant bursts, he combines a break, a slick pass and a great kicking game.
The width Priestland affords through his passing has been key to their success of late, giving Wales the scope to choose the point of contact and dictate the tackle situation.
His kicking means no defence can afford to ignore the touchlines, while Phillips must be watched as Ireland have found to their cost in the last two games.
The final ingredient is a backline-friendly back-row. In attack, openside Sam Warburton guarantees quick ball off first phase, while number eight Toby Faletau follows the ball closely and can make plays quickly when gaps appear in the open field.
Wales undoubtedly pose a thorny problem for any defensive coach.
It is up front and around the fringes that Ireland should have a clear edge.
The scrum battle did not end up being important at the World Cup but it may swing Ireland's way on home soil. Adam Jones starts at tighthead but with Wales missing Gethin Jenkins, Mike Ross and Cian Healy will expect to deliver pressure at the least, and ideally a few penalties will come their way.
The Irish lineout also looks superior - Wales are short a couple of top class operators with Dan Lydiate and Alun-Wyn Jones unavailable - where Ireland have three excellent jumpers in the two locks and Jamie Heaslip.
If Wales do come under pressure in the set-pieces, the impact of their backline will be minimised.
Ireland also have a superb set of carriers in the pack. Sean O'Brien, Stephen Ferris and Cian Healy each pose a major problem for any tackler, while Heaslip looks capable of hitting wider channels with intent again, sooner rather than later. Rory Best and O'Connell also get through plenty of work with ball in hand.
If Ireland can soften Wales up in the forwards, it may well create space and momentum for the backs - and that can bring Ireland's superior footwork into play in the centres. Andrew Trimble and Tommy Bowe are top class finishers on the wings, and Rob Kearney has shown a hugely improved ability to use his arrival into the line to convert chances into tries.
The factor which may decide the match is the performance of Conor Murray at scrum-half. If he can keep the tempo up over a couple of phases and release Ireland's main carriers fluently and consistently, having the edge at the set piece could well do the rest.
Sexton's own footwork, speed and short passing should also help Ireland get their runners going forward at the Welsh defensive line.
If the old truism that forwards decide who wins matches and backs by how much holds, Ireland should have enough to get off to a winning start.
Prediction: Ireland 22-10 Wales
Ireland v Wales, RBS 6 Nations, Aviva Stadium, Dublin, Sunday 4 February, kick-off 3pm:
Ireland: R Kearney (Leinster); T Bowe (Ospreys), F McFadden (Leinster), G D'Arcy (Leinster), A Trimble (Ulster); J Sexton (Leinster), C Murray (Munster); C Healy (Leinster), R Best (Ulster), M Ross (Leinster), D O'Callaghan (Munster), P O'Connell (Munster, capt), S Ferris (Ulster), S O'Brien (Leinster), J Heaslip (Leinster).
Replacements: S Cronin (Leinster), T Court (Ulster), D Ryan (Munster), P O'Mahony (Munster), E Reddan (Leinster), R O'Gara (Munster), D Kearney (Leinster).
Wales: L Halfpenny (Cardiff); A Cuthbert (Cardiff), J Davies (Scarlets), J Roberts (Cardiff), G North (Scarlets); R Priestland (Scarlets), M Phillips (Bayonne); R Gill (Saracens), H Bennett (Ospreys), A Jones (Ospreys), B Davies (Cardiff), I Evans (Ospreys), R Jones (Ospreys), S Warburton (Cardiff, capt), T Faletau (Newport Gwent Dragons).
Replacements: K Owens (Scarlets), P James (Ospreys), A Powell (Sale), J Tipuric (Ospreys), L Williams (Cardiff), J Hook (Perpignan), S Williams (Scarlets)
traeth
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suirthing that was a great preview with no bias
I been reluctant to commit myself in this match due to our injuries and I'm still not convinced that Roberts and Priestland are 100% , can't see them lasting 80 minutes but we do have good replacements for them on the bench . It is the Welsh front five as an unit that worry me.
I believe that the battle will be in the backrow , it was here that Wales won that world cup match.
I can't see Ireland winning by that margin suirthing , I believe it will be much closer , the threat of Bowe does worry me but I'm going for Wales on the cap
I'm having a patriotic punt on Wales+6 with V.C. and a Mike Phillips anytime try scorer @ 8.0
I been reluctant to commit myself in this match due to our injuries and I'm still not convinced that Roberts and Priestland are 100% , can't see them lasting 80 minutes but we do have good replacements for them on the bench . It is the Welsh front five as an unit that worry me.
I believe that the battle will be in the backrow , it was here that Wales won that world cup match.
I can't see Ireland winning by that margin suirthing , I believe it will be much closer , the threat of Bowe does worry me but I'm going for Wales on the cap
I'm having a patriotic punt on Wales+6 with V.C. and a Mike Phillips anytime try scorer @ 8.0
S
suirthing
Guest
Best of luck Traeth 
and actually there was alot worse than that in the Irish papers, they are getting totally carried away. I did read one article that made me think of how you Welsh don't value the Heineken Cup! 
here is what part of that article said...
"Since the World Cup quarter-final, aside from Wales losing three matches while Ireland have been inactive, the provinces have provided three Heineken Cup quarter-finalists to one. Hence there’s no doubt the Irish players came together in better shape, physically and mentally.
Dan Lydiate was obliged to play for the Dragons in a dead Challenge Cup rubber against Cavalieri Prato, which they won 45-16. An accident waiting to happen duly happened and Lydiate joined the other Wellington workhorse Luke Charteris, Alun-Wyne Jones and Gethin Jenkins on the injured list.
Wales thus have six changes from the team which lost in Shane Williams’s farewell against Australia in early December and five alterations from the Wellington line-up. Ireland have only three changes in personnel, though admittedly number 13 is some jersey to fill.
However, we should be wary of taking Heineken Cup form as a true barometer, for Wales out-performed Ireland (and all their Euro rivals) despite not providing one quarter-finalist in last season’s Heineken Cup, nor one finalist since 1996 in a competition Irish teams have won four times in the last six years.
Aside from the step up to Test rugby’s more elevated air, perhaps the Heineken Cup is both a strength and a weakness for the Irish team, and vice versa for the Welsh. As with the supporters, provincial ties matter more Irish players, whereas the emotional ties in Wales remain altogether closer to the national jersey than to their regions."
and actually there was alot worse than that in the Irish papers, they are getting totally carried away. I did read one article that made me think of how you Welsh don't value the Heineken Cup! here is what part of that article said..."Since the World Cup quarter-final, aside from Wales losing three matches while Ireland have been inactive, the provinces have provided three Heineken Cup quarter-finalists to one. Hence there’s no doubt the Irish players came together in better shape, physically and mentally.
Dan Lydiate was obliged to play for the Dragons in a dead Challenge Cup rubber against Cavalieri Prato, which they won 45-16. An accident waiting to happen duly happened and Lydiate joined the other Wellington workhorse Luke Charteris, Alun-Wyne Jones and Gethin Jenkins on the injured list.
Wales thus have six changes from the team which lost in Shane Williams’s farewell against Australia in early December and five alterations from the Wellington line-up. Ireland have only three changes in personnel, though admittedly number 13 is some jersey to fill.
However, we should be wary of taking Heineken Cup form as a true barometer, for Wales out-performed Ireland (and all their Euro rivals) despite not providing one quarter-finalist in last season’s Heineken Cup, nor one finalist since 1996 in a competition Irish teams have won four times in the last six years.
Aside from the step up to Test rugby’s more elevated air, perhaps the Heineken Cup is both a strength and a weakness for the Irish team, and vice versa for the Welsh. As with the supporters, provincial ties matter more Irish players, whereas the emotional ties in Wales remain altogether closer to the national jersey than to their regions."
traeth
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Here in Wales we do not regard the Heineken as a marker for the International side , it a factor that I discounted in the world cup on Doc's site.
Our regional sides have "poor" coaches and even though I'm not a fan of Gatlandball tactics it has suited the development of the Welsh squad.
I'm glad Gatland has faith in the youngsters that he introduces into the squad , Cuthbert being another example .
I was one of the biggest critic of North when he was introduced , it shows how little I know about rugby!
I'm not wishing you any luck suirthing as I believe you lot get too much of it anyway
Our regional sides have "poor" coaches and even though I'm not a fan of Gatlandball tactics it has suited the development of the Welsh squad.
I'm glad Gatland has faith in the youngsters that he introduces into the squad , Cuthbert being another example .
I was one of the biggest critic of North when he was introduced , it shows how little I know about rugby!
I'm not wishing you any luck suirthing as I believe you lot get too much of it anyway
P
Pie-chucker
Guest
Good luck, Traeth! I'm Welsh by background and punting inclination but just can't (quite) see a Welsh win (ko in 10 mins). Irish line-out edge is the worry.
Ireland by 3.
Cap too close to that for me to get involved.
Ireland by 3.
Cap too close to that for me to get involved.
traeth
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this coming weekend's odds
Sat, 11th of Feb, 2012
16:00 Italy v England
Italy +8 1.91 Tie 17.00 England -8 1.91
20:00 France v Ireland
France -9 1.91 Tie 17.00 Ireland +9 1.91
Sun, 12th of Feb, 2012
15:00 Wales v Scotland
Wales -12 1.91 Tie 17.00 Scotland +12 1.91
Can Italy start well a Italy +4 at h.t is tempting
England flattered in their match last weekend ,
France at home with an evening kick off do have a big advantage.
Will Ireland change their tactics and run the ball?
Wales were lucky that Ireland made those tactical mistakes , a win away with a weakened side was a good result.
Scotland can't play as poorly again can they?
A France straight win is available @ 1.31 with betfair , looks a good bet to me
Sat, 11th of Feb, 2012
16:00 Italy v England
Italy +8 1.91 Tie 17.00 England -8 1.91
20:00 France v Ireland
France -9 1.91 Tie 17.00 Ireland +9 1.91
Sun, 12th of Feb, 2012
15:00 Wales v Scotland
Wales -12 1.91 Tie 17.00 Scotland +12 1.91
Can Italy start well a Italy +4 at h.t is tempting
England flattered in their match last weekend ,
France at home with an evening kick off do have a big advantage.
Will Ireland change their tactics and run the ball?
Wales were lucky that Ireland made those tactical mistakes , a win away with a weakened side was a good result.
Scotland can't play as poorly again can they?
A France straight win is available @ 1.31 with betfair , looks a good bet to me
P
Pie-chucker
Guest
Italy had France on the back foot in the first half, 28 mins in Frog territory. Agree with +4 HT above, and wd suggest Italy/England HT/FT is not a bad go @ 5-1.
S
suirthing
Guest
traeth said "A France straight win is available @ 1.31 with betfair , looks a good bet to me "
Yes that does look good, France will beat Ireland without a doubt. Never mind Pie if Italy had them on the back foot, there is always one big game in the Italians every season, thats the first game, Ireland have played them first so many times I know, and I have seen how well they play, then the following week that big show from the Italians fizzles out.
Yes that does look good, France will beat Ireland without a doubt. Never mind Pie if Italy had them on the back foot, there is always one big game in the Italians every season, thats the first game, Ireland have played them first so many times I know, and I have seen how well they play, then the following week that big show from the Italians fizzles out.