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8% R.O.I.

Punter

Punter

Moderator
Joined
Aug 5, 2011
Messages
8,894
Points
113
…That’s the minimum I hope to achieve from this football season 2011/12.

I’ll log all my bets and thoughts in here and will copy and paste to the divisional threads too.
I don’t expect too much of a profit for the first half of the season but should easily reach my target during the second part.

My guidelines….

*Target - 8% minimum R.O.I. by end of May 2012

*Bets will only be placed with 9 different bookies, Betfred, Blue Sq, Corals (shop), Ladbrokes (shop), Paddy Power, Skybet, Stan James, V.C Bet and Hills. I’ll also be using the Betfair and Betdaq exchanges. So I may not always be getting the best price.

*Stakes will vary depending on a combination of confidence AND in accordance with how my bank is doing in terms of reaching my target of 8% R.O.I.

*My maximum staking for any one week will not exceed £50. This is also my maximum bet.

*Results will be updated by the end of every week, I will also update overall progress monthly.

Week 1

Derby to beat B'Ham, £2 @ 2/1, Hills

Swindon to beat Crewe, £4 @ Evens, Hills

*This first post is a copy and paste from the old forum, where i posted the bets up well in advance. Both bets won today (yesterday rather). I also have one other bet outstanding for week 2, Wolves to win @ Blackburn, £2 win @ 3/1, Corals.

**Also rather than using a points system have have decided to use actual £'s staked. It's not big bucks and my aim is to build the bank up, affordable gambling if you like. To me though the bank is not what i'm thinking of as such, it's more the R.O.I, or yield that i want to show off about come May 2012.

That's about it for now, more bets to follow shortly :)
 
Carling Cup, 1st round. ....always dodgy.

Hull v Macclesfield @ 4/9
Ipswich v Northampton @ 1/2

£2 double @ 2.16, Hills
 
Week 1 results

Derby to beat B'Ham, £2 @ 2/1, Hills :)
Swindon to beat Crewe, £4 @ Evens, Hills:)

Hull v Macclesfield @ 4/9 :shit
Ipswich v Northampton @ 1/2 :shit
£2 double @ 2.16, Hills

Staked £8
Returned £14
 
Week 2

A couple of early ones...

Wolves at Blackburn £2 @ 3/1, Corals
Bolton at QPR £4 @ 9/4, V.C

I had to take that price on Bolton at newly promoted QPR, Rangers won the championship last season but i felt they wern't playing as well towards the end. I know they will be looking for a good start at home but i just think Bolton are going to make their prem experience pay here, i dont think they will lose and the price on the away win is a generous one. I know they've lost Mat Taylor but Chris Eagles is a good signing for Bolton. All things considered i would of said Bolton are more of a 13/8 chance.

Wolves is another risky one but at 3/1 i think they might of been underestimated, Blackburn aren't that special are they? I know Wolves aren't either but I'd of gone no more than 15/8 about an opening day away win here. I'll probably regret not taking a handicap bet though instead.
There's nothing solid about either of my picks but i'm hoping i'm lucky enough to get one right out of the two.
 
Week 2

A couple from league 2...

Aldershot, Barnet and Plymouth were all tempters for me at odds against but the two I’ve gone with are Bristol Rovers @ 21/20 at home to Torquay and Swindon @ 23/20 away at Cheltenham.

It was a tricky tie for Rovers opening fixture down at Wimbledon but they came away with a 3-2 win. Both teams only had 4 shots on target but Rovers had 11 compared to ‘dons 4 shots off target.
Torquay were at home to Burton and did well to get a draw from 0-2 down, but Burton had 56% possession and had 10 chances off target compared to Torquay’s 4. Both teams had 5 shots on target. I just don’t think Torquay will be anywhere near as good as last season and Burton wont be much cop either this season. Rovers should win this and I think we’re lucky to be getting odds against for a home win here, I’ll go as far as shouting them as my weekend banker.

Swindon for possible promotion and Cheltenham for relegation has been the thoughts from a few pre season, a local derby narrows it a bit but I expect Di Canio’s Swindon to just edge it and be top of the league Saturday night.

Swindon @ 23/20 at Cheltenham £2 win, Hills
Bristol Rovers @ 21/20 at home to Torquay, £4 win, Hills
 
Week 2 results

Swindon @ 23/20 at Cheltenham £2 win, Hills :shit
Bristol Rovers @ 21/20 at home to Torquay, £4 win, Hills:shit
Wolves at Blackburn £2 @ 3/1, Corals :)
Bolton at QPR £4 @ 9/4, V.C :)

Staked £12
Returned £21
 
Actually hold the week 2 staked and returned, I’m in for my first combo’ bet of the season this midweek coupon.

Sheff Utd I’ve put in as the only odds on chance on my midweek coupon, I’m hoping they can keep their good start going and i’ve taken 6/4 about Mk Dons at Yeovil, they have a bit of fire power, scoring 8 in their last 3 games conceding 3 in return.

I’m still not convinced by Torquay even after that good result at Bristol Rovers, looking at it now I think it was more a case of trying to stick one over on their old manager. I’m hoping that Thunder’ can confirm that that’s a decent enough price to chance for the home on Aldershot, reports suggesting they shouldn’t of lost to Northampton….

Aldershot boss Dean Holdsworth told BBC Surrey
"I think we were a little bit nervous in the first half. Straight from the kick-off we were sloppy.
"Second half our passing was 10 times better. I thought we were excellent and deserved something from the game."We hit the post twice and on another day we could have had two penalties. We didn't get the rub of the green. I'm disappointed today."
Click to expand...

Port Vale have started ok and I was surprised to see 7/4 about them winning at Burton.

Swindon will be disappointed about their away loss to Cheltenham and again 7/4 was big enough for me to take for them to try and make amends at Dagenham, who have shipped in 7 goals in their last two games without reply.

Sheff Utd @ 7/10
MK Dons @ 6/4
Aldershot @ 11/8
Port Vale @ 7/4
Swindon @ 7/4

10 x 30p Doubles, 10 x 30p Trebles, 5 x 10p 4 timers,1 x 50p Accy

£7 Staked
 
Another small bet on the midweek coupon, probably only due to the fact that i'm in profit and there are still some biggish prices about teams that are more likely to finish in the top half of the table. Stakes are still small though.

Sheff Wed @ 6/4
Preston @ 8/5
Bristol Rovers @ 21/20
Rotherham @ 13/8
Wimbledon @ 15/8

10 x 20p Doubles, 10 x 20p Trebles, 5 x 10p 4 Timers, 1 x 50p Accy

£5 Staked @ V.C Bet
 
Good shout on Wolves and Blackburn Punt as i wouldn't have picked either away from home until i had first seen some form.

Good luck with your other bets too.
 
Im thinking of following you in with those they look good selections tbh
 
I attempted to copy your bet punt, but that coupon on 365 is a nightmare. Iv'e somehow managed to get the Dons and Sheff Utd Sat games mixed with tonights.

Dick of The Week for next week.

beamer
 
You only need Sheff Wednesday to turn it around now in the 2nd one gl
 
Oh no beamer, that's both me and you as contenders then (see Fantasy Football thread).

Nice one Yorkie, it'll help towards the commission on your next Betfair winner :thumb
 
Week 2 results

Swindon @ 23/20 at Cheltenham £2 win, Hills :shit
Bristol Rovers @ 21/20 at home to Torquay, £4 win, Hills:shit
Wolves at Blackburn £2 @ 3/1, Corals :)
Bolton at QPR £4 @ 9/4, V.C :)

Staked £12
Returned £21

Sheff Utd @ 7/10 :)
MK Dons @ 6/4 :)
Aldershot @ 11/8 :shit
Port Vale @ 7/4 :shit
Swindon @ 7/4 :shit

10 x 30p Doubles, 10 x 30p Trebles, 5 x 10p 4 timers,1 x 50p Accy

Staked £7
Returned £1.28

Sheff Wed @ 6/4 :shit
Preston @ 8/5 :)
Bristol Rovers @ 21/20 :)
Rotherham @ 13/8 :)
Wimbledon @ 15/8 :)

10 x 20p Doubles, 10 x 20p Trebles, 5 x 10p 4 Timers, 1 x 50p Accy

Staked £5
Returned £24.59

Week 2 overall...

Staked £24
Returned £46.87
 
Week 3

One that's caught my eye early as a possible over price in the Championship is
Cardiff away @ Burnley. The Bluebirds had started well until a home loss to Brighton, midweek. They had won at West Ham on the opening day of the season and beat Bristol City at home the following week.
Burnley havent started so well with just 1pt picked up from games against Palace and Watford. They have a good young manager but for me the loss of Chris Eagles to Bolton looks damaging.
Cardiff look decent upfront and although this looks to be a dificult away trip, 15/8 for the away looks a touch generous for me so i've chanced them.

Cardiff at Burnley, £4 win @ 15/8 Paddy Power
 
Week 3

I'm going to chance the goalscorer market in the Prem this week.

SportingBet 1.40
Paddy Power/William Hills 1.57
Skybet 1.73
Bet365 1.83
Victor Chandler 1.95

A big difference of opinion in odds there. V.C's price was just about big enough to take a chance about that big girls blouse scoring at Stamford Bridge this weekend. He looked sharper against Stoke last week, made it look as though there's a goal coming soon. At home to WBA i can see the blues scoring 2 maybe 3 and judged on last weeks effort i can see him getting on the score sheet very soon. As good as even money is a bet for me.

Torres Anytime Scorer £7 @ 20/21, V.C Bet
Torres First Scorer £2 @ 18/5, V.C Bet
Torres Hat trick £1 @ 25/1 Blue Sq

I've also had a very small punt on Victor Moses getting on the score sheet for Wigan, he scored five for Wigan in pre season friendlies and has bee given the chance to fill the boots of N'zogbia.

Moses Anytime Scorer £2 @ 7/2, Paddy Power
Moses First Scorer £1 @ 11/1, V.C Bet

Total Staked £13
 
Week 3

Sunderland to beat Newcastle, £5 @ 6/5, Hills
 
Week 3

I've backed Neath @ 13/8, V.C Bet, purely on the basis that if they win this we wont see 13/8 about another Neath home win for the rest of the season.

Neath to beat Bangor City, £4 @ 13/8, V.C Bet
 
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