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Ashes

swooperman

swooperman

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Aug 6, 2011
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Last week was a debacle, & there's a lot of talk that England are reaching the end of the road & that their tour is coming off the rails. Personally, I don't agree.
England do worry me a little, as they have question marks over 3 positions, which for a very organised set up isn't good, but there are a few reasons to back them here.
England's record in 1st tests in away series has been poor for a while, yet they generally bounce back. They lost in India last winter, prompting India to rubbish us, yet we bounced back to win. We didn't bounce back in Abu Dhabi against Pakistan, it's true, but Australia are not the strength of Pakistan in Asian conditions.
England were undone by Mitchell Johnson's pace in Brisbane, but both Brisbane & the WACA (3rd test, lets get through this one first) are the quickest wickets in Australia. Adelaide is slower, & a better batting wicket. Coupled with this is that for the first time Adelaide is a drop in wicket, making it hard to judge for the curator. Yes, the temptation after last week is to make it as hard & fast as possible but it's an unknown quantity in this situation, & if he overcooks it & it crumbles it's playing straight into Swann's hands.
England are under siege. The press are after them. The Aussie public are after them. This lot are pretty close no matter what problems they've had in the past. Cook has described this as 'a war' & although that's over the top undoubtedly, the Aussies have raised the heat like Allan Border did in '89 & ditched the pally-pally act & are having a go. That's all well & good & it's not excatly one sided as Jimmy Anderson did threaten to punch George bailey if he didn't shut up, leading to Clarke telling him he was about to get his arm broke, but the English press are one sided idiots on that. England are playing for Trott & to prove a point. they were incensed by Warner's remarks & by all accounts it was whilst England were batting in their 2nd innings it became aware Trott was slipping into the depths & going home. Englands dressing room is normally a calm place, that day it was far from it.
England have been in this situation before & bounced back. Australia last week won their 1st test in 8
Clarke's carrying an injury. he normally is, but he's done his ankle now as well as his back.
Australia, put simply, aren't that fucking good. It's been largely forgotten they were 132-6 on day 1 & had to be bailed out by Haddin & Johnson, very much the same scenario as last summer.

I'm looking at the weather tomorrow, but 5/2 looks value to me
 
Excellent post Swoops.One of the best Ive ever seen on here:thumb


Course,Aussies bound to win now:eek: ...but still
 
Swoops, I've heard people say that Bresnan is being rushed back because they lost the first test and it may end up costing him a place in the last two tests if his condition worsens? What do you reckon? As in, if they lose him after test 2 and England haven't managed to pull level, is it likely to be all over?
 
There's a possibility he is being rushed back, yes. Andy Flower always said that Bresnan was in the running for the 2nd test about 2 months ago, but does that mean the recuperation ihas run like clockwork, or is it technically panic stations?
I've been pretty vocal on the squad, & that's that it was an abortion of a pick. tremlett was picked in the 1st test & he was blatantly not up to the job they needed, & hadn't got the form this year to back it up whereas Bresnan was the form horse in the summer.
This test is the biggest I have seen for a long time, don't underestimate that. The 3rd test being at the WACA (trounced there last time even though we dicked them everywhere else) & is the quickest pitch in the world, meaning we need to draw level here. That's another reason for the bet as I think England have to be more pro-active than normal, & if we get ourselves into a strong position don't be afraid of laying off as we might throw cards up in the air trying to force the win.
If we can win here, the series is set up beautifully. Draw, & it's hard to see us winning the Ashes but we can still retain them. Lose, & the Aussies go to the WACA, where their record is very strong like Brisbane, playing for 1 win from 3.
It's not do or die, but it's a fair way down that road, but don't underestimate the Trott factor. It's big, & players like Broad, Prior & in particular, KP, are at their best under fire.
 
I'll add something to that. If there is any sense to the squad England picked, 4 tall quicks with Broad being a shoo-in, then you would imagine that Broad plus 2 of Finn, Rankin & Tremlett have to play at the WACA with the bounce. Therefore if Bresnan can get through this test he's a good chance of being rested for Perth anyway, giving him recovery time for 4 & 5, which might be what you meant.
It's unlikely to be a draw at the WACA, so we'll be picking fire for fire & trying to bounce them out, before returning to our more natural game in 4 & 5 where Bresnan could be the key, particularly if Australia succeed in continuing to attack Swann, exposing our 4 bowler system. It's the only theory that makes sense with the inclusion of all 3 tall quicks plus Broad
 
Clarke has 2 double tons here, & comes in off a ton at Brisbane, although I would consider both that & Warners ton as easy runs in the situation. KP has 2 x 150+ in 3 knocks here.
Since 2006-7, whenever Australia has won an Ashes test they've lost the next.
Showers are forecast during the 5 days, but I'm not sure that's putting me off tbh
 
I'm a bit reluctant to offer anything after last week, but, it's do or die, in a nutshell.
The WACA is the quickest ground in the world, & England's record here makes dim reading, but South Africa won at a canter here last year.
It all depends on England's mindset here as to whether they stand a chance. They've been hammered from pillar to post yet they remain essentially the same team that's won well the last few years. Lose here & it could well be the end for some players. In what has been primarily a batting problem of a tour, it's the bowlers who could suffer. Swann could be rested, although I would play him, but if he is then it'll be no spinner rather than dropping him for Monty. Swann's been targeted & England's lack of runs has highlighted that. Anderson probably needs a performance as well, whereas in the batting none of Cook, KP, Bell or Root are under serious pressure. Carberry hasn't nailed down a place yet & Prior needs a good couple of games.
What will this mean? It's last chance saloon for the series, & if it goes wrong then the temptation is to allow a new broom to sweep through.
Bresnan will return I'd think, with Jimmy & Broad, then either Swann or by the sounds of it Boyd Rankin. The squad being what they've picked, only Rankin makes sense, & no ones mentioning Finn or Tremlett, but when it was picked they didn't envisage this situation. I think England will spring a surprise with their team. I'm not sure I would, but these are desperate times.
Australia are no value at all @ 4/6, they're simply not good enough to be that short & one poor batting display could well see the confidence evaporate quickly. Don't forget they'd only won 1 test this year before Brisbane. Johnson's confidence is high & this is his adopted ground, but generally he can't bowl well 2 games on the trot & this is 3!!
My heart says that England will come out fighting, & that this inexperienced Aussie side don't know how to win. When you're staring at a series win when you're not used to it strange things can happen, & there's no fallback of a draw here. This is a result deck & will be a 4 day test, no longer.
There's no 'have to win' argument from me here, & the form guide says Australia, but it's the old stager against the inexperience buck. This should be a traders dream.
It's all on the first session for me. I was going to say England need to bat, but they can bowl & Broad & Anderson start well, & they could easily here, & they're in the game. If the first session goes badly it's hard to see England standing with whats gone before, whereas Australia have a bit more to fall back on but are vastly inexperienced in this type of situation.
Hesitatingly, 11/4 looks value to me
 
I'd say yes normally mate, but I don't see a draw here. Neither side is good enough to last out for one, particularly here. It's a 4 day test here, it won't reach the last afternoon. Fucking hot as well. Last year SA went for 225, the Aussies were laughing & went for 163!! I think you'd take 325 here batting first & you wouldn't say that on any other Aussie ground.
Without any sign of rain, & i'm checking in a bit but I haven't heard of any, i'd say you're just cutting your odds
 
I did think that when I read your post saying it's the quickest ground in the world but I'm on now mate
 
Anybody who might be trading on this, why I don't know as it's a 2:30am start, but this is how I read it:
12 overs to the new ball, England 180-4.
If we can negotiate those 12 overs, then Bell & to a lesser extent, Stokes, will be 'set'. I feel Stokes can last as he seems to be a stubborn fucker, if Bell is there to guide him. Prior will probably prefer the harder, newer ball if he can keep the form he found, arguably, in the last test.
200 runs behind. Put simply, to get a lead, Bell has to ton & Stokes & Prior have to get 50's. Our tail average about 14.5 per wicket on this tour, Australia's a lot more than that. Therein lies a story. The good news is that England haven't lost a wicket to Mitchell Johnson for quite a while now. Shame we're 2 nil down before we got to that stage.....
If Bell falls quickly, Australia will get a lead of 100 plus, & barring us rumbling them for 150 second time around, that's too big.
If Stokes falls quickly, all is not lost but someone like Broad has to weigh in with a 40, as well as Prior. If Prior goes quick as well, Bell will feel marooned again & play his shots. I reckon parity is about as much as we can dream of, meaning we'd have to bat out of our skins again in the 2nd innings after a good bowling performance. Tall order, but possible.
Each ball lasts 80 overs, & in Australia as a whole, & particularly the WACA, it's a lot easier scoring runs in the latter 40 overs. We lost Cook & KP in that time.
Ian Bell has his fingers around the urn....at the moment
 
Swann retires.

Surely an overreaction and too soon.

The tour goes from bad to worse
 
Has to be more to it than than that, has to be. Barmy otherwise, & yes, if so
 
Colbro said:
Swann retires.

Surely an overreaction and too soon.

The tour goes from bad to worse
Click to expand...



Maybe so .....but surely........SURELY......theres not a single person on here who hasnt at least
(secretly)dabbled on the 5-0 The Aussies at some point during this embarrassing debacle!!???



And isnt this a truly wonderful example of why gambling,when done for the right reasons/sensibly/correctly is so fucking marvellous?




Without the ability to bet this series is just a waste of time-a miserable waste of time at that.


But just by putting a meaningful amount on the aussies 5-0 (and, if youre risk averse, 4-1 and 4-0 in whichever proportions you deem appropriate) you can now ENJOY the spectacle.



BUT how much should you put on the Aussies?- That is the question.


One needs to be careful.


The ideal amount is such an an amount that,on hearing the news that Swann has retired forthwith,you chuckle and consider

sticking more on the whitewash and ordering some extra Fosters for the next test (to be consumed ironically,natch)



But be warned.....what do you do not wanna do...is stick too much on!:eek: No Sir!


Cos,if you do,before you know it, whenever England lose a wicket youll find yourself hollering at the screen,


" Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggghhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



GO BACK TO BACK THAT SHITHOLE YOU CALL A COUNTRY YA FUCKING ARROGANT POMMIE BASTARD!!"









Er,...........apparently





Anyway,it just wouldnt be cricket:unsure
 
Well if most people on here have dabbled on the whitewash, I wish they'd mentioned it to me at some stage because I haven't.

Than said, my winnings are already safely in the bank so I'm not too concerned. The only concern I have (in fact, the only interest I have in it since I'm not a cricket fan) is that I have Broad to be England's top bowler (11/4) and the last time I turned my TV on to take a look he was hobbling around the pitch like a cripple.
 
ONEDUNME said:
Well if most people on here have dabbled on the whitewash, I wish they'd mentioned it to me at some stage because I haven't.

Than said, my winnings are already safely in the bank so I'm not too concerned. The only concern I have (in fact, the only interest I have in it since I'm not a cricket fan) is that I have Broad to be England's top bowler (11/4) and the last time I turned my TV on to take a look he was hobbling around the pitch like a cripple.
Click to expand...



AH,,,,,but its not too late OMD.


Its not too late.

Doesnt have to be value you know.

Just for the entertainment,innit.:)
 
Just looking at the odds for the 4th test.

Best price with bookies seems to be 4-5.

I dont know what the odds on the 5th teast would be if the Aussies win the 4th.

But if they are 4-6 ,then you can get 2-1 5-0 by betting on the 4-5 and then the 4-6.

Which aint bad as you can cover 4-0 at a reasonable price.


Normally of course youd expect the Aussies to take things easier but I think the fact that they lost the last 3 series means that they will go all out for the whitewash.

But anyway,its really an entertainment/'insurance'/be an Aussie for Xmas bet:unsure


Actually no need to bet on the 4-5 and 4-6,Paddy Power are 15-8.
 
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