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Cheltenham 2014 Tuesday 11th March

ONEDUNME

ONEDUNME

Administrator
Joined
Jul 29, 2011
Messages
12,557
Points
113
TUESDAY 11TH MARCH 2014


Values (£)
*

1.30

The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Race

2m abt ½f

120,000

*

2.05

The Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase

abt 2m

150,000

*

2.40

The Baylis & Harding Affordable Luxury Handicap Steeple Chase

3m abt ½f

90,000

*

3.20

The Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy

2m abt ½f

400,000

*

4.00

The OLBG Mares’ Hurdle Race

2m abt 4f

85,000

4.40

The Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Steeple Chase

Abt 4m

85,000

5.15

The Rewards4Racing Novices’ Handicap Chase (0-140)

2m abt 4½f

60,000
 
Right, lining up my ammo for the big battle:naughty. I'm not saying this is going to be an accurate record of my festival bets because I won't have time to update additions, backs, lays in running - plus it's my intention to put my place bets on in running when I see which of them are looking like getting involved as they come down the hill. I realise that my places prices are likely to be lower than those I'd get pre race but, at the same time, I'll be saving on the ones that are out of the race when the race actually gets serious.

This could be the biggest disaster ever (and that wouldn't surprise me in the slightest) but I have a nagging feeling in the back of my mind that, due to the fact that there are plenty of unknown's, everything is trying and there are going to be some decent prices, you could, in theory just get four winners (and maybe a few places along the way) and still make a profit. Just four out of 27, how difficult could that be:lol - and it's not like I'm restricted to one selection per race. There are also offers that could possibly return stakes (although putting them on antepost is not the best way to take advantage of those) So I'm going to put up some win bets and see. a/ if I can hit four winners or more at the right prices and b/ if that, in turn, could make the week a winning one. I'd estimate between 800 and 100 points staked for the week.

I'll mention now that some of these selections are already placed at these prices (all NrNB) and I won't be going through every card to see what the current prices are.

130 Race. Supreme Novice Hurdle
Paddy Power are offering money back if your horse is 2nd 3rd or 4th so 10 pt win on GIlgamboa at 16/1
Same offer Splash of Ginge 5ps ew 20/1 (only win part of bet returned with offer)
Vaniteux 10pts at 16/1

30 points
 
200 The Arkle. Champagne Fever hot fav at 3/1 but my picks are:

Trifolium 10pts on at 6/1 and another 10 added at 5/1
Dodging Bullets 10 @ 6/1

Not placed yet (waiting for more places or other offers) but I'm going to add 5ew Ted Vale (currently 25/1)
40 points
 
240 Festival Handicap - bearing in mind (as with all races) that all may not run
15ew Shutthefrontdoor 14/1
20 win Pendra 20/1
10 win Alfie Sherrin 16/1
10 win Tap Night 20/1

70 placed (not all will run)
 
320 Champion Hurdle
My Tent or Yours (yes bad news today but still) 20 at 5/1
Jezki 15 at 8/1
5 ew Un de Sceaux 14/1

45 staked

edit - Forgot to add 10 on Our Conor at 4/1 money back if the Fly comes first or second
so 55 staked
 
400 Mares Hurdle I've laid Quevega at evens for 20 points but here are my "backs"

10 ew Down Ace 16/1
5 win Mickie 16/1 (money back if Quevega wins)
 
440 National Hunt Novice Chase

15 ew Shutthefrontdoor 16/1

Possibly won't run in this - possibly more to be added
 
515 Novice Handicap Chase

Pendra 10 ew 12/1 5 win added at 8/1
Cause of Causes 5ew 12/1
 
ONEDUNME said:
320 Champion Hurdle
My Tent or Yours (yes bad news today but still) 20 at 5/1
Jezki 15 at 8/1
5 ew Un de Sceaux 14/1

45 staked

edit - Forgot to add 10 on Our Conor at 4/1 money back if the Fly comes first or second
so 55 staked
Click to expand...

Can Our Conor win it? Personally i dont think so. Not just on the fact that only one 5yr old has won the race in the last 23yrs but i think he's held on form too.

I'm really heading towards Jezki in this race now. I'll be on both Jezki and MTOY with you Odm
 
I dunno mate. The way the Irish are banging on about it you'd think it was a cert'. The money for Jezki and the rest is almost certainly down to the fact that MTOY has had an injury scare today. Of course, Cheltenham wouldn't be Cheltenham without a Henderson drama. Un De Sceaux is not guaranteed to even take part and I'd be happy to be left with the two JPM horses plus the Our Conor bet.

I realise that I've overplayed in several races if I don't get any non-runners but the Champion Hurdle is one race that I'm happy that I'm sitting in a good position with.
 
I guess last yrs JCB Triumph Hurdle win was impressive for OC. This is different altogether though isn't it?
I've just been having some banter with a mate and offered him 5/1 about it, and he took it. I'm not worried :cold
 
Well I wouldn't want to be laying it at that price mate. Listening to the Irish vibes, once the Irish punters start getting their wallets out in anger it looks like their going to be backing the fly (which will go off as fav at a stupidly low price I reckon) and Our Conor.

The internet is full of statistics about what horse will win what based on previous runs/wins etc but I'm wondering if the fact that we've had the wettest jumps season ever is going to scupper some of those stats, given then many won't have been able to have the prep runs that were originally planned. That aside, I've looked at a few stats put up for previous winners of the Arkle and I'm happy to say that they point heavily to two horses in the race and they are the ones that I've already picked so I'm going to increase my bets on them.

I'm really hot on Trifolium now and I've now got 10 pts on at 6/1 and another 20 pts on at 5/1.
The other horse is Dodging Bullets which I now have 20pts on at 6/1


240 race
As expected, my original selections for the Festival Handicap have bit hit by non-runners but the current fav is a JPM horse -Cantlow - so I'm switching to that with a 10pt ew at 10/1 along with my 10 win Alfie Sherrin at 16/1 and 10 win Tap Night 20/1.

40pts on the race with a view to putting lay bets in, probably at around 3/1, 6/1 and 8/1 respectively (but I'll need to do some calculations on that next week)
 
I'll play safe and cover most of the bet now. I still dont think it can win though. At the same time though i know nothing.

In the opener keep an eye on Cheltenian, he's entered in a few races but from what i heard today, this is his most likely target. A lad at work has told me his uncle was in Hereford last weekend to meet up with jockey Richard Johnson and according to him he's in cracking form and worth a bet @ 40/1!
 
I looked at Cheltenian mate and the prices suggested that it stood a good chance of winning a race on Thursday. Opening race though? I'm not so sure. Saying that, I was standing near the finish line 6 or 7 years ago when Ebazian won for me at 66/1 (small stakes, obviously but still a good start to the week) so I wouldn't be ruling anything out.

Just got in and it's time to go through all the races again in light of the confirmations.
 
I might be making Jezki my biggest bet of the festival. I'm going to be keeping stakes small throughout but this will be where i go bigger, with a win and a stake back place bet

McCoy riding him the last 4 races has just been a smoke screen as to what this horse can do. All the true form has been with Geraghty, who is 4/4 on him. McCoy's comments about switching to Jezki if MTOY doesn't run is more nonsense to belittle, play down the chances too.

He may of finished last of four lto but Jessica Harrington claims he was allowed to run too freely and yet still finished only just over three lengths to Hurricane Fly.

He was a close up second to HF previous to that after meeting trouble in running.

http://www1.skysports.com/news/12040/9136200/

She also claims she may use a hood on him for the first time Tuesday, to help him settle better.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/hors...id/1615421/top/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

Having BG back in the saddle would be a big positive for me.
 
I wouldn't put it past JPM to pull something like that in a bid to play down a horse only to pull off a win. I remember the vibes around it when it won its bumper and how it was going to be something special. If it wast for the fact tht he's chosen to run MTOY and AP in the same race Id be tempted to believe it could all be big plot but that makes it very unlikely. The only exception would be if they KNOW that MTOY is not up to it next week and is likely to run a stinker. Even then, it's far too dodgy a race to be making a big bet in for me.

If all the money is for Jezki on Tuesday after the Irish have backed the others in, you'll know you may be onto something Punter. Smiley face.


Good luck. I've narrowed the race down to just the five lol
 
Punter said:
In the opener keep an eye on Cheltenian, he's entered in a few races but from what i heard today, this is his most likely target. A lad at work has told me his uncle was in Hereford last weekend to meet up with jockey Richard Johnson and according to him he's in cracking form and worth a bet @ 40/1!
Click to expand...

I found out more about this today, apparently it was only a Cheltenham preview, there were a few there, including Richard Johnson, Lucinda Russell and Evan Williams. Johnson tipped up Cheltenian while others tipped Tap Night, Kings Palace, Fox Rock and Harry Topper.

Good luck. I've narrowed the race down to just the five lol
Click to expand...

lol, I cant even rule out A Thousand Stars :lol
 
10 am and all the betfair markets for tomorrow have been suspended which means that they should be put up as a normal daily racecard (which means money back if your bet doesn't run)
 
Champion Hurdle-Hurricane Fly @ 3-1 [Bet 365] BOG
 
not had much time to look them over in much detail but here's my picks anyhow

1.30 Vaniteux
2.05 Dodging Bullets
2.40 Hollywell
3.20 Jezki
4.00 Cockney Sparrow
4.40 Shotgun Paddy
5.15 Ahyaknowyerself

best of luck everybody
 
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