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Cheltenham Festival 2022

Topdog

Topdog

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Aug 23, 2011
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My first bet is already on

Albert Bartlett [Friday]-Shantreusse

Think this Irish horse is a Grade One winner waiting to happen

Each Way @ 10-1 [Skybet] Non Runner No Bet
 
Mares Novices Hurdle (Thursday)

Grangee

Each Way @ 8-1 (Ladbrokes) Non Runner No Bet

Think she would have won last time but for falling
 
Boodles [Tuesday]

HMS Seahorse

Each Way @ 10-1 [Bet 365] 9 places

Looking like being better hurdler than when rated on the flat by Aidan O'Brien
 
My selections for tomorrow are

1.30 Jonbon
2.10 Rivere D'etel
2.50 Does He Know
3.30
4.10 Stormy Island
4.50 Doctor Brown Bear / Britzka
5.30 Stattler

If either Jonbon or Does He Know win then my Cheltenham will be covered on day one
 
i looked at Britzka for some reason . will get back when i get a chance and post my donkeys up. i’m trying to go more for double figure prices this year
 
ONEDUNME said:
i looked at Britzka for some reason . will get back when i get a chance and post my donkeys up. i’m trying to go more for double figure prices this year
Click to expand...

It's had a wind op, that's why I looked at it. I know the Irish are supposed to have an advantage in the weights but it would take a big jump for it to win tomorrow
 
2.50 - TEA CLIPPER and RUN TO MILAN - TC had looked a decent chaser in the making, but last 2 not so good. Had wind surgery since last run and also sports the first time cheekpieces today at 12's. RTM, may just be outclassed, but arrives here in excellent form at 100's.

4.10 - MARIE'S ROCK - Probably needs a bit more, but remains unexposed at the trip, so solid enough chance at 12's

4.50 - SWINGING LONDON - Goes on the ground and arrives here in good form. Tongue tie needs to bring about improvement at this level, but can run a solid race at 66's. BRITZKA has got a couple of mentions on this page, so adding that one at 25's
 
Right, I've made a decision to mostly go for double figure horses in the hope of two or three going in over the week

130 Bring on the night 25/1 (drifting now) and a silly win and (4) place bet on Silent Revolution at over 100/1 on betfair
I've had my beet365 bet on Mighty Potter but I'm not eligible for the skybet one (bastards)

210 I like Gabynako's chances 20/1 . Tongue strap for first time and was supplemented for the race so I'm hoping that wasn't just spent for the sake of a day out to watch it run.
Also on Coeur Sublime at 14/1

250 I've actually ended up with a price bigger than on the day which is a fucking rarity to say the least. Tea Clipper (wind surgery and first time tongue strap) backed at 20/1 7 YES SEVEN places and currently 12/1
There are literally ten horses I could have backed for this including Lostintranslation and Vintage Clouds but in the end it came down to the toss of a coin between Fantastikas and Frodon and I'm going to go for the latter, more for sentimental reasons than any other as it's made me a lot of money 0ver the years. 14/1

330 I quite fancy Appreciate it to turn over the odds on fav but too short for me so I've gone for one from left field with Saint Roi ew at 12/1 without Appreciate it and Honeysuckle.

410 Marie's rock and Martello Sky ew

450 I had backed Dr T J Eckleburg which is a non runner so I've gone for Forever William and Prarie Dancer both at 25/1

Finally the 530, again I chose a non runner Ontheropes so left with Braeside at 16/1
 
Everything I've backed in the last week or so for day 2 of the festival has been scratched with the exception of the 450 race. I've pretty much lost interest this year anyway (used to be interested from January but now it's just a borefest with the same people spouting the same shite for months on end before it starts) so I'll no doubt pick some out at small stakes in the morning but as it stands I have just three bets in place for the whole day and they are all in the same race.

450

Thyme White (backed at 14/1, 5 places which is no value as it is currently 12/1 5 places and drifting so will possibly be available at the same price for 6 places tomorrow)
A Wave of the Sea 20/1 5 places. Same applies - already available at 25/1 6 places
Gumball 33/1 5 places and drifting. Available at 25/1 6 places

All of which shows what a fucking waste of time antepost betting is 80% of the time.

To be honest, it's not what it used to be and it's getting more boring every year. half the races going to short priced favs today and only one winner over 10/1 and tomorrow looking to be similar fare, fuck knows what will happen if they do ever move to 5 days. Most of the races won't be worth betting in.
 
Topdog said:
Mares Novices Hurdle (Thursday)

Grangee

Each Way @ 8-1 (Ladbrokes) Non Runner No Bet

Think she would have won last time but for falling
Click to expand...

Declared to run with Patrick Mullins riding
 
2.10 - CAPODANNO - Remains unexposed, but not the soundest of jumpers, so comes with risks attached. Definitely has the ability to win at 7's.

2.50 - McFABULOUS - First time headgear and drop in trip can hopefully do the trick at 16's.

4.50 - DANCING ON MY OWN - Tongue tie added and chance on best form at 20's.

5.30 - GODOT - Bred to be much better than first 2 runs suggest and for me, is the best of the " rags " at 200's.
 
my selections for today

2:10 Capodano
2:50 The Shunter
4:10 Prengarde
 
I’m with Davey Russell today along with back on the lash and envoi allen without Shishkin win and 2 places
 
2.50 - TOP MOON - Original pick a NR, so going with this one on stable debut at 66's.
 
Plate [Thursday]

Grand Paradis

Each Way @ 9-1 [Bet 365] 6 places BOG

Needs to jump better but ground coming in his favor
 
2.10 - IF THE CAP FITS - Down another 5lb and whilst needing to spark back to life, is still a former grade 1 winner at 33's.

3.30 - CHAMP - Has festival form and arrives here in good nick at 6's.

4.50 - NINA THE TERRIER - Won't mind the ground and has proved to be a decent hurdler. Whether she is good enough for this level remains to be seen, but 40's is more than a fair price to do so.

5.30 - ALMAZHAR GARDE - First time blinkers replace the cheekpieces, is versatile as regards the trip and goes on the soft. Bit to find overall, but still some EW appeal at 50's.
 
SAMOAN said:
2.10 - IF THE CAP FITS - Down another 5lb and whilst needing to spark back to life, is still a former grade 1 winner at 33's.

3.30 - CHAMP - Has festival form and arrives here in good nick at 6's.

4.50 - NINA THE TERRIER - Won't mind the ground and has proved to be a decent hurdler. Whether she is good enough for this level remains to be seen, but 40's is more than a fair price to do so.

5.30 - ALMAZHAR GARDE - First time blinkers replace the cheekpieces, is versatile as regards the trip and goes on the soft. Bit to find overall, but still some EW appeal at 50's.
Click to expand...


I’m with you on champ mate. I think it's probably the best bet of the day.

I’ve aksi looked at your Almazhar Garde and I can’t for the life of me work out why it’s priced at over five times the price of Omar Maretti so I’m going to join you on it – thanks. It will need to make fewer mistakes than last time out but hopefully that’s what the change in headgear is designed to do. I’ll put a lay in in running in case it is prominent and fades but it looks like a decent tilt to me at the price.


I’ve gone for a tilt at one at even bigger prices in the 450 in Tweed Skirt in the hope that the wind operation makes the difference (and I know the chances are slim but the price reflects that). The jockey and trainer know their stuff and I have picked no horse out in the race so I’ve backed it at 350/1 on the exchanges lol. Also with a lay in running, obviously.

As for the other races, Ballyandy and The Jam Man in the 210. Shan Blue to finish in the top two in the 250. Imperial Alcazar and, at a bigger price, Cavalry Master in the 410 and then Almazhar Garde and Come on Teddy in the last.


Good luck to anyone who's having a bet
 
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