Eurovision Song Contest 12th - 16th May 2026

[Beanie]

It might be the last ever Eurovision thread on Betnod, and who knows, if the boycotts keep up it could be the last ever Eurovision too!

Graham Norton will raise a glass to Terry Wogan during song 9, but I'll be raising one to Komp, Mickey and Slick

Five countries have pulled out over Israel's inclusion - Iceland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Spain. Ireland and Spain are the headline names; Spain were one of the Big Five, so we're effectively down to a Big Four this year. That leaves just 35 countries competing, the smallest field since 2003.

Voting changes: there are a few, largely in response to the Israel controversy from recent years. Semi-finals go back to a combined jury/televote to determine qualifiers (televote-only was scrapped). Juries are expanded from five to seven members, with a youth quota baked in. And the cap on votes per payment method drops from 20 to 10 - so mass-voting campaigns get harder to run. There's also new language explicitly discouraging government-backed voting pushes.

Schedule: Semi 1 on the 12th, Semi 2 on the 14th, Final on the 16th.

Rehearsals: Start today!

More to come on the entries and odds. Following San Marino @ 40/1 in 2025 and Norway at 30/1 in 2024, can we nail the last place market at long odds for the 3rd year in a row?

 

[Jezza]

Thanks for starting the thread Beanie, great to see yourself and Eurovision back again.

Very much agree on raising a glass during song 9. Still find it hard to believe Slick has passed. He absolutely loved Eurovision and I know he will be watching us along with Mickeypaul and Komp. Can they have a bet from above? Quite likely they will enjoy a last placed SKYBET punishment. I will be having three drinks during Song 9 to honour those not with us anymore

I had no idea about that massive fallout due to Israel's participation. You could see how controversial it's been over the last couple of years and guess it had to come to a head. Spain lol, are they still contributing the money they usually do as part of the big 5? If that's the correct understanding.

I looked at the markets for the first time yesterday. I shouldn't have as I haven't even heard the songs yet. Saw Greece @ 5.3/5.4 back/lay on betfair with 5.5 available on hills. Had a win only bet. Immediately moved to 7.6 on bf lol rip me. Also saw Malta 23.0/26.0 on betfair and 41.0 on hills. Had an EW bet and this time guess I got something as hills moved it right in to 20s and the bf market stayed ok. Last place hat trick would be incred scenes. Last year was unreal.

 

[Jezza]

They probably both wont qualify or some shit.

Really interesting detail on all the changes Beanie. Is that changing how you approach your bets?

Honestly I just look to beat bf odds and exist on that and vibes only. Its no wonder my record was so crap up to two years ago.

 

[Beanie]

Hey Jez - hows things?

I used to trade the markets quite a bit during the weeks and months before the contest, but dont have the time and dedication for it these days so leave most betting to the week before now. One of the few bets I have on so far is Greece though - there's a few people I trust who all have Greece as their most likely winner. Odds bounced out when the first clip of their rehearsal was released which is the market change you will have seen (went out to 8+ yesterday) but started to come back in now - quite often the eurovision fan bubble overreacts to things that dont really matter to the general public. The greek diaspora seems very motivated for it this year which gives a huge leg up.

One thing worth noting for this year is that the missing countries are mostly Western European, whereas Romania, Moldova and Bulgaria all return after short absences, so expect the voting to be slightly more tilted towards Eastern/Balkan/Mediterranean nations.

Feels like quite a weak year so hopefully that translates into some long odds betting opportunities through the week.

 

[Jezza]

I'm good thanks Beanie, hope you are the same. I have been travelling over the last week and couldn't reply properly for some days. I'm now on holiday though (in the same place where I was for the final last year!) so feeling top notch. In terms of gambling it's been a poor year for me however. The closure of the original Sky Poker was rough, although I did manage to attend one of their live events last year. Sky was probably the last place where it was possible to play the man rather than the cards if you get my drift. Tbh it was like a time capsule for the UK/Ireland. That is now gone. My football betting also has gone badly this season and I don't have anything left to go that could save it.

The last two years Eurovisions and the Qatar world cup were all however brilliant for me so lets hope that trend continues now! Very glad to hear you are on GREECE also Beanie, for all the right reasons. I will look to back them again at longer odds. FINLAND are the main rivals it seems. I almost never back the favourite in Eurovision and this time will be no different. Good point about the missing countries being western leaning.

I notice oddschecker dont have the page up for last place yet. A bit annoying but presumably it will come after the semi finals and they cant really do it before then I guess. Looking very much forward to reading your thoughts on some of the betting markets Beanie. I'm pretty much a long shot lover when it comes to Eurovision as well. The pain of trying to get money down starts now.

 

[Beanie]

All good here - ran the London marathon a couple of weeks ago so having a bit more of a low key month this month.

I'm pretty out of the loop on the poker scene - not played much in the last decade tbh. Where are you mostly playing now?

Yeah not really worth looking at the last place market until Friday - a few bookies have their markets up (and have it as an Austria vs UK shootout) but it can flip on its head due to certain songs squeezing through the semis. I will say the change of the semi finals from televote only to jury+televote does make it slightly less likely that a semi final qualifier will end up in last place as with San Marino and Norway in the last 2 years - because all the semi qualifiers will have proved that they have some jury appeal whereas previously it was about identifying the televote only qualifiers who wouldnt pickup any jury support in the final (and have their televote drowned out in the big field.) I guess thats why auto qualifiers Austria and UK are favs, but lets see how things shake up.

More tomorrow and Monday - today im off to take in the blockbuster clash between Airdrie and Alloa

 

[Jezza]

All good here - ran the London marathon a couple of weeks ago so having a bit more of a low key month this month.

I'm pretty out of the loop on the poker scene - not played much in the last decade tbh. Where are you mostly playing now?

Well done on the Marathon Beanie, I can picture you conjuring up new Eurovision wizardry as you ground out the miles . I am very far away from physically being able to do that. Watching Eurovision with a few beers is more my kind of workout .

Poker is dead, you are right not to play. Computers are way better than humans these days and its all about knowing what the solvers say about every specific spot - GTO or Game Theory Optimal to give it its full name. If you are playing online you could very well be playing against someone with software telling them the solver outputs as they play etc etc. I might be repeating stuff I said last year here and if I am apologies. One of the reasons I mentioned again it is I had a frequent and tough opponent in the rake races on there called "Beanie" and I honestly kept half wondering if it was you. I probably said that last year as well

Before I go any further I would just like to make it clear nothing here is financial advice of any kind. I am just telling my story for fun. Always do your own research in anything. One interesting thing I did do in the last 12 months that I have not mentioned anywhere else was invest in the very first publically listed UK based bitcoin treasury company. They are called The Smarter Web Company (SWC) and it's been a really wild ride. The shares hit 200x the IPO price at one point and then dropped back down to where they are now (roughly 16x IPO price a year later and roughly around 1mNav valuation). Personally I am a big believer that bitcoin has the potential to do a lot of good in the world and so this opportunity was very inviting to me. Since then there have been an absolute ton of copycats and failed politicians getting involved all imo trying to make a quick buck. I did only SWC because I believe in the founder so much.

The reason I brought that story into this thread is I was talking to an old PL/TDP poster recently (I think Norfolk_Enchance was his PL nick but not 100%). They said just imagine if the IPO thread was on the old TDP. It would have been legendary with some posters taking punts etc. It absolutely would have been! Peak TDP was the best site on the internet and the SWC IPO would have gone down a storm on it.

 

[Jezza]

P.S. Enjoy the football Beanie