Horse Racing Bets Tuesday 1stDecember

[SAMOAN]

Had a quick look at the South African opener and could not resist a bet at the prices

10:55 Vaal - Really unbalanced book, with 4 of the runners at 9/2 or less and 6 runners available at 100's. Would expect some shifts when betting opens on course, but at the moment happy to chance these 3 , with 2 being real " roughies " -

SAN JULIAN BAY ( Shade better last time and drop in trip looks to suit. Blinkers added and IMO the most likely outsider at 100's )
PROFIT RATIO ( Nicely bred debutante, who represents a top stable. Hopeful of some support at the early 16's )
THE WHIP ( Poor debut, but gelded since. Decent trainer and another one avilable at the early 100's )

 

[SAMOAN]

Just a 4th sadly at Vaal. Gone with 4 in the afternoon over here -

1:45 Southwell - GET INVOLVED - Point winner on h'cap hurdle debut. His March 3rd here over 2m4f makes him interesting and should have no problem with the trip.

3:20 Southwell - TOMMY RAPPER - Nicely bred debutante who represents a top stable.

3:40 Wolverhampton - MUSTN'T GRUMBLE - Sloe win came in a seller, so obvious concerns about suitability of this company. Was a close up 4th off this mark last time though, so cannot discount at 25's.

5:10 Wolverhampton - DARK PHANTOM - Pair of turf handicap 4th's read quite well, though not so good last time. 1lb " wrong " as well, but Oisin Murphy looks a positive booking and interesting at 20's.

 

[SAMOAN]

12:05 Vaal - Going try for the Forecast here by going with 4 -

BEAUFORT SEA ( Often close up and top 9lb claimer Calvin Habib booked )
REVELATION ( Strydom booked and interesting now upped in trip )
CHAMPIONS CUP ( Fair 2nd start, but then disappointed when FAV. Putting that down to an off day and certainly bred to be OK. Progress hopefully resuming today at 10's )
ICY AVALANCHE ( By far the most exposed in the field, but pacifiers on, drops in trip and could make a bold bid from the front at 50's )

 

[SAMOAN]

12:40 Vaal - Another Maiden and another lot of " rags " -

CLASS QUEEN ( Fair effort last time and whilst this is tougher, Randall Simons keeps the ride. IMO too big at 50's )
TRULY EVELYN ( Dangerous if getting the likely strong pace. Should be finishing well at 33's )
KHALETTE ( 3rd run back off a break, so should strip fitter. Lightly raced and has the odd decent performance to her name. Opened 33's and now down to 20's )

 

[SAMOAN]

12:05 Vaal - Going try for the Forecast here by going with 4 -

BEAUFORT SEA ( Often close up and top 9lb claimer Calvin Habib booked )
REVELATION ( Strydom booked and interesting now upped in trip )
CHAMPIONS CUP ( Fair 2nd start, but then disappointed when FAV. Putting that down to an off day and certainly bred to be OK. Progress hopefully resuming today at 10's )
ICY AVALANCHE ( By far the most exposed in the field, but pacifiers on, drops in trip and could make a bold bid from the front at 50's )

1st 1 Beaufort Sea (SAF) Calvin Habib (9) 8/1

2nd 2 Revelation (SAF) P Strydom 11/1

3rd 11 Road To Indy (SAF) W C Marwing 10/11f

4th 15 Icy Avalanche (SAF) S Brown 66/1

Straight Forecast £ 98.93

Cracking ride from Calvin Habib who was always going well. Did have to bide his time, but crucially did not panic. Quite glad it was not a handicap as IA lost 3rd late on and getting the first 3 ( at those prices ) in a non tricast race would have been gutting.

 

[SAMOAN]

12:40 Vaal - Another Maiden and another lot of " rags " -

CLASS QUEEN ( Fair effort last time and whilst this is tougher, Randall Simons keeps the ride. IMO too big at 50's )
TRULY EVELYN ( Dangerous if getting the likely strong pace. Should be finishing well at 33's )
KHALETTE ( 3rd run back off a break, so should strip fitter. Lightly raced and has the odd decent performance to her name. Opened 33's and now down to 20's )

Class Queen and Khalette were 1st and 2nd a couple out, but both faded badly. Odds on won easily

 

[SAMOAN]

1:20 Vaal - ESCAPE ROUTE and BLAZING BRAVE - Forest Fox should win at the ratings, but interestingly is not even FAV. Do like the market leader BACKLUND, but not for me at 6/5. ER is back off a break and has been gelded since last run. Was pretty solid up until last time and for me is the best of the outsiders at 14's. BB is running well and has won over C and D. Plenty to find with the principles, but could easily out - run his price of 20's

 

[SAMOAN]

BLAZING BRACE halved in price down to 10's. Was backing him from a value point of view at 20's, so interesting punters think it can win, despite having plenty to find at the weights

 

[SAMOAN]

Just a 4th sadly at Vaal. Gone with 4 in the afternoon over here -

1:45 Southwell - GET INVOLVED - Point winner on h'cap hurdle debut. His March 3rd here over 2m4f makes him interesting and should have no problem with the trip.

3:20 Southwell - TOMMY RAPPER - Nicely bred debutante who represents a top stable.

3:40 Wolverhampton - MUSTN'T GRUMBLE - Sloe win came in a seller, so obvious concerns about suitability of this company. Was a close up 4th off this mark last time though, so cannot discount at 25's.

5:10 Wolverhampton - DARK PHANTOM - Pair of turf handicap 4th's read quite well, though not so good last time. 1lb " wrong " as well, but Oisin Murphy looks a positive booking and interesting at 20's.

TR and DP both finished 2nd. GI was last of the finishers and MG plain last.