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Horse racing "lottery" system

ONEDUNME

ONEDUNME

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Out of a discussion about the Lincoln Handicap earlier in the week, I intend to prove that you can make a profit on horse racing without knowing the slightest thing about it. Oh yes, it really is that easy. The initial discussion is as follows in bold type..

Here’s an interesting experiment for you, five random numbers, 5, 7, 11, 13 and 25.
Without knowing the final line ups for Saturday’s race or obviously the other big sprint handicaps this season, what do u think the chances woild be if making a profit if you backed those five horse numbers at 2pts for win if under 10/1 and 1pt ew if 10/1 and over?

Rediculous idea but I think you may be surprised. I’d like to know what odds anyone might give of being in overall profit at some stage during the season. If u think that 6 places are regularly offered on these races i reckon theres a good chance that you’d find yourself in the black if u shopped around for prices,


There is no number 25 so what I'm going to stipulate is that the numbers I'm going to use are 5, 7, 11, 13 and then the next number that has a 5 or 7 in it until five horses are selected. I.e, tomorrow's Lincoln would therefore be 5, 7, 11, 13 and 15. If one of those became a non-runner, number 17 would take its place.

Stakes are a maximum of 10 pts, being two on each horse , normally 2pt win if the initial price I select is under 10/1 and 1pt ew if 10/1 or over but thay may vary depending upon whether I have to use an alternative bookie at a lower price in order to get an additional place.
 
So let's kick off with the lincoln 335 Doncaster tomorrow

5. Ballard Down 14/1 is available but I'm going for the 12/1 with 6 places (1/5 the odds) with Skybet and Coral
7. Dolhphin Vista 33/1 available, again six places coral
11.Kings Gift, 25/1 available for six places but double that for 5 so I'm going for 50/1 (1/5 odds) with paddy power and betfair
13. Grey Britain 20/1 six places
15. Repercussion same price as above.

Reserve will be 17 Fire Brigade which will be a 2pt win if any of the above don't run.
 
225 Doncaster ~(Spring mile)

5. Kings Pavilion 25/1 5 places paddy power
7.Brilliant Vanguard 28/1 5 places PP
11. Seduce Me 33/1 5 places Ladbrokes
13.Moonlight Navigator 40/1 5 placed betfair
15. Passtine 33/1 5 places lads pp and others


Reserve number 17 Georgian Bay currently 40/1 5 places boylesports
 
Think it will probably throw some winners because of the amount of runners youll have running for you in each race,over a season??? Just big race h'caps,ODM?
 
That's the idea mate, yes. The idea is to stick with ones with at least 15 runners. It's just something that occurred to me a few years ago when I was putting on an Irish Lottery bet at the same time as looking at the racecard for the day. It occurred to me that I'd probably be more likely to get a winning forecast on a big race than I would of having a treble with five numbers on the lottery. True, the lottery pays 325/1 or something for a treble but, believe or not, the forecast for the Spring Mile at Doncaster last Saturday paid £626 with a 50/1 winner. These races regularly throw up 33/1 winners and ignoring the prices and sticking rigidly to the numbers selected is pretty much the only way you're going to be on some of them.

I'm not happy with the staking system because the way it is at the moment means that I would need to hit one of those 50/1 winners more regularly than is likely so I will tinker with it for the future, possibly staking 12 points split over 5 horses for example. I'm also happy to leave out horses that I think are too short a price. This silly system is all about getting decent priced winners and placed horses .

Anyway 20pts down after 2 races. I have to say that from the little bit of a dabble that I had with this with some of the big races over the last three years or so, it has been very rare not to have at least a placed horse over two races but that's the curse of raising a thread like this lol.
 
A mile race today, gonna give it a go - 345 Newbury

No
5 Ballard Down 1pt ew 33/1 5 places
7 Elusive Heights 40/1 1pt ew 6 places
11 Afaak 2pt win 13/2
13 Leader Writer 1pt ew 10/1 5 places
15 Third Time Lucky 1pt ew 18/1

Reserve (in case any of the above are non runners)
17 Humbert 1pt ew 12/1 5places
 
150 Newmarket Saturday
5 Examiner 14/1 2pt win
7 Oasis Charm 10/1 2pt win
11 Third Time Luky 11/1 2pt win
13 Another Eclipse 12/1 2pt win
15 Pactolus 1pt ew 28/1 Unibet (4 places)

Dumb system
 
ONEDUNME said:
150 Newmarket Saturday
5 Examiner 14/1 2pt win
7 Oasis Charm 10/1 2pt win
11 Third Time Luky 11/1 2pt win
13 Another Eclipse 12/1 2pt win
15 Pactolus 1pt ew 28/1 Unibet (4 places)

Dumb system
Click to expand...

Oasis Charm won, Third time Lucky 3rd. 10pts returned 22 pts.
 
400 ascot
5 Firmament 14/1 1pt ew 6 places
7 Shady Mccoy 40/1 pt ew 5 places
11 Repercussion 22/1 1pt ew 6 places
13 Get knotted 33/1 1pt ew 6 places
15 Non runner
17 Gilgamesh 22/1 2pt ew 5 places

12pts staked
 
230 Ascot all 4 places
5 Deia Glory 1pt ew 125/1
7 Global Goddess 0.5 pts 250/1
11 Kuriouis 3pt ew 12/1
13 Luchador 1pt ew 125/1
15 Second Generation 2pt ew 20/1
17 Shades of blue 9/2 4pt win

19pts staked


500 Ascot This is exactly the kind of race that this shit could actually work in
5 Master Merion 1pt ew 20/1 7 places
7 Arcanada 1pt ew ew 40/1 7 places
11 Hors de combat 1pt ew 45/1 7 places
13 Saltonstall 4pt ew 10/1 5 places
15 Firmament 3pt ew 14/1 7 places
17 Repercussion 1pt ew 40/1 7 places

22pts staked


530 Ascot
5 Arabian Coast 1pt ew 33/1 5 places
7 Brother Bear 1pt ew 22/1 5 places
11 Hemp Hemp Hurray 1pt ew 28/1 5 places
13 Merlin Magic 1pt ew 40/1 5 places
15 Society Power 4pt ew 9/1 5 places
17 Symbolization 3pt ew 12/1 5 places

22 pts staked
 
Society Power 2nd returning 11.2 points and Symbolization 4th at 14/1 returning 11.4 pts. Other races total losses

With bookies offering up to 7 places today, time to go for it in the 500 Ascot

5 First Contact 4pts ew 10/1 7 places
7 Qaysar 2pt ew 25/1 7 places
11 Completion 3pt ew 14/1 7 places
13 outsider of all at over 100/1 so I'm going to sub this one
15 As above
17 Full Moon 2pt ew 40/1 7 places
25 Maverick Officer 3pt ew 22/1 7 places
27 Corrosive 12/1 3pt ew 7 places

34 pts staked. I'll settle for a winner and three places:lol
 
500 Ascot today again 7 places

5 Bachus 1pt ew 50/1
7 Dreamfield 8pt win 11/4
11 Danzeno 2pt ew 18/1
13 Foolad 1pt ew 50/1
15 Spring loaded 22/1 3pt ew
17 Out Do 1pt ew 33/1

24pts staked

Just need the fav to win and a couple of places:)
 
50/1 winner but that's not going to cover the losses on the week (although I think Society Power and Symbolisation both placed the other day). Ironically, I've done the 500 at Ascot on Thursday and Saturday and would have picked the winner had I done it yesterday :lol

64.5pts returned, profit of 40.5 pts on the race
 
Not a sprint but a wide open race all the same
145 Haydock all 5 places unless otherwise stated
5 Across the stars 3pt ew 11/1
7 Atty Persse 5pt win 9/2
11 Society Red 2pt ew 16/1
13 Rainbow Rebel 2pt ew 18/1
15 Koeman 2pt ew 28/1
17 Tawdeea 1pt ew 25/1

25pts staked. Plan, for Atty Persse to win and other(s) to place

1255 Sandown
5 Daira Prince 5pt ew 13/2 5 places
7 NON RUNNER
11 Manson 2pt ew 12/1 5 places
13 Rufus King 1pt ew 40/1 5 places
15 Tigre du terre 5pt ew 15/2 5 runners

26pts staked
 
145
Rainbow Rebel won returning 49pts

1255
Tigre du Terre won returning 56.88 pts


54.88pts profit on day
 
Well I have absolutely no doubt that no person of sound mind on here ever thought that this bizzare pile of shite could make a profit but the fact is that it has. Proving (?) that horse racing is really just a lottery :)

I missed not one, but two placed horses on the first day, 2 x 5ths at 25/1 and 33/1. 5th of May, Oasis Charm won at 10/1.20th of June Hors Du Combat, Society Power and Symbolization placed. 50/1 winner on 23rd of June and two profits today, I make us 18.13 points in the black.

Who'd have thought eh?

Well, me actually.

Rediculous idea but I think you may be surprised. I’d like to know what odds anyone might give of being in overall profit at some stage during the season. If u think that 6 places are regularly offered on these races i reckon theres a good chance that you’d find yourself in the black if u shopped around for prices,
 
140 Newmarket
5 Makzeem 3pt ew 7/1 6 places
7 Reckless Endeavour 1pt ew 40/1 6 places
11 Gilgamesh 5pt win 9/2
13 Shady McCoy 2pt ew 22/1 6 places
15 Borderforce 1pt ew 50/1 6 places
17 Masham Star 2pt ew 20/1 6 places

23pts staked

340 York

5 Dash of Spice 5pt win 4/1
7 Thundering Blue 5pt win 6/1
11 Kynren 2pt ew 14/1 6 places
13 Brorocco 2pt w 10/1 6 places
15 Mordin 2pt ew 16/1 6 places
17 Fayez 1pt w 40/1 6 places

24 pts staked
 
ONEDUNME said:
140 Newmarket
5 Makzeem 3pt ew 7/1 6 places
7 Reckless Endeavour 1pt ew 40/1 6 places
11 Gilgamesh 5pt win 9/2
13 Shady McCoy 2pt ew 22/1 6 places
15 Borderforce 1pt ew 50/1 6 places
17 Masham Star 2pt ew 20/1 6 places

23pts staked

340 York

5 Dash of Spice 5pt win 4/1
7 Thundering Blue 5pt win 6/1
11 Kynren 2pt ew 14/1 6 places
13 Brorocco 2pt w 10/1 6 places
15 Mordin 2pt ew 16/1 6 places
17 Fayez 1pt w 40/1 6 places

24 pts staked
Click to expand...
]

Shady Mcoy deadheated for 2nd at 25/1 returning 14.5 pts and unlucky in the second race with Thundering Blue 2nd which would have put us in profit with a win but Kynren and Brorocco were both placed at 18/1 and 8/1 returning 18pts.

Loss of 26.4pts on the day and back in the red for the season by 8.27 pts
 
330 Ripon
5 Moojim 1pt ew 100/1 5 places
7 Buckingham 2pt ew 22/1 6 places
11 Primero Boy 125/1 1pt ew 6 places
13 Zebardee 1pt ew 50/1 6 places
15 It's the only way 2pts ew 14/1 6 places
17 Red Balloons 5pt ew 13/2 5 places

24pts staked
 
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