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Horse racing - Odds on Favs - Can we profit ??

J

jtw1

Guest
I think so , if discipline is applied .
Started this just yesterday on another forum so i'll post the selections here as well
THIS IS A PAPER TRAIL , to start off with anyway.

Simple rules -
1- Race must be a non handicap
2- Race must have a 50% winning strike rate for favs [ min of 4 runnings , max 10 ] or a 100% strike rate if last 2/3 favs have won
3- Odds between Evens [2.0] and 1/3 [1.33]
4- Each bet is a double .

Bet 1 was a 4/5 winner yesterday [GALILEOS CHOICE 6.05 Kil]
So the returns from that go onto ROBIN ANGEVIN in the 5.55 at GALWAY today
 
The answer is yes we can. I have been papertrailing an idea on this for the last two years and each time showed a profit. Was thinking about introducing it later but will get the results together and post them here soon and maybe people can argue the case if that is ok with you jtw1
 
Of course you can profit with any prices if you pick the right horses:) but, as a general principle, i'd say it's more difficult to profit from odds on horses than any other prices because the simple fact is that you need two winners out of every three selections and that's far easier in theory than it is in reality.

I wouldn't bother with your historic data to be honest mate. Feel free to start your own odds on thread from scratch, as is anyone else on here. I would expect more attempts to fail than to succeed.
 
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Would you like to actually read what I've typed? I'm saying that most attempts to make a profit from odds on horses will fail in the long term.
 
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Stratford 2.50 - KARASENIR - Beginners Chase 2/2 past winners were favs.

10pts win
 
KARASENIR 1st @ 5/6f

18.33pts returned and this will be placed onto the next selection
 
It looks like SIR FREDLOT could start evens or odds-on in the 3.40 at Lingfield on Tuesday.
The Fav has won this 3 times from the past 4 runnings .

Stake 18.33pts .
 
SIR FREDLOT was only 3rd , BUT at 7/4 and therefore was a no bet .
 
This one looks promising at Doncaster in the 3.35 on Friday.

EKTIHAAM is odds-on at present and the race has been won by 2 of the last 4 favs.

Stake 18.33pts


Later on there may be a qualifier in the 6.20 at DOWN ROYAL where 6 of the last 7 Favs have won .
END OF THE AFFAIR is on 13/8 at present so if that stays the same then it's no-bet but if it shortens then we'll have 10pts on the nose.
 
Love that avatar :D

END OF THE AFFAIR drifted to 2/1 co-fav of 3 !! so that was def a no-bet

but

EKTIHAAM was 1st @ 8/15 , which would have returned 28.11pts

Bank - 108.11pts


If FAME AND GLORY [3.50 Curr] starts evens or odd-on then he will be a selection in a race where the favs have won 5 from 10 .

Also MABAANY in the 2.30 at Chester [ 2 favs from 4 ] could be a selection


Back tomorrow
 
10pts MABAANY 2.30 @ CHESTER

If that comes in , all returns onto FAME AND GLORY 3.50 Curragh

If MABAANY loses then it's a 10pt win on FAME AND GLORY
 
MABAANY 1st @ 4/5
loon.gif


As it stands we'll have 18pts to invest on FAME AND GLORY ....Providing he doesn't drift past evens ...currently on 5/6
 
FAME AND GLORY flops
banghead.gif


4.15 Curragh - CITYSCAPE is odds-on in a race where 4/7 favs have won

Stake 10pts
 
CITYSCAPE 1st @ 2/5

Returns = 14pts

Stake 14pts on BLUE TIGER in the 3.00 @ Haydock on Tuesday .

2/3 favs have won this race.
 
BLUE TIGER unp

The problem i'm having is sussing when the fav will end up odds-on in the selected races as i have to post the night before , therefore what i'll do is look back at the days results and see what happened .
So instead of posting selections i'll post which races favour the favs .

Today - 2.10 Yarmouth - 3/3 favs won - won by 8/11f
 
You've confused me mate:thinking

I can tell you which races favour the favourites after the favourites have won. Surely you can post up which races favour the favs of tomorrow's races. There's no point having a system that tells you the winners afterwards.
 
Sorry ODM , had visitors just as i was about to post tomorrows preferred races ...

Yarmouth - 2.10 2 clear and one Jt-fav from 4
Yarmouth - 2.40 2/4 favs
Ponte 3.00 - 3/4 fav
Ponte 5.00 + 5.30 2 divs of the Maiden - 3/4 favs
Listowel 2.25 - 2/2 favs
Listowel 4.00 - 3/4 favs

So , as this is a paper trail , any odds-on fav in these 6 races will have been a qualifier .
 
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