Naas 3.15

[ubique]

After a pleasant break, it's time to get back into the swing of things.
I looked at this race before 8am today. There were 24 runners...now 23. The n/r Prince Ludovic was not a factor in my calculations anyway.
Using various rating methods I have reduced the field to 12 runners. After comparing my tissue with available odds I can identify decent overlays. I like 30% plus. There are two of them in this race.

Beau Michael 57%
Cass Bligh 38%
(Knockcroghery 26%)

 

[swooperman]

Forgive me for being a thick cnut, but does that mean Beau Michael is your favoured choice?

 

[ubique]

BM may have the biggest overlay but I do not favour it over CB. I have backed BOTH to win.

 

[ubique]

from the SL..
Sunday March 11 2012

Naas 15:15 - Result
Naas Supporters Handicap Hurdle (0-140)
€24000 added, 4yo plus, 2m 3f, 22 ran
Winner €15600 2nd €4560 3rd €2160 4th €720
Going: Yielding to Soft

Pos. Dist. Horse Wt Jockey Trainer Age SP
1 Up For The Match (IRE) 9-13 A P Crowe J E Kiely 5 4/1 f
mid-division, 8th halfway, went 5th early straight, challenged approaching last and led early run-in, stretched clear touched 9/2
2 4¼ Shamiran (IRE) 10-1 I J McCarthy (5) S T Nolan 7 33/1
always prominent, 2nd halfway, ridden to lead narrowly approaching last, headed early run-in and no chance with winner, kept on one pace
3 2¼ Beau Michael 10-4 pt A E Lynch A McGuinness 8 20/1
chased leaders, 6th on inner halfway, headway into 3rd 2 out, challenged under pressure when slight mistake last, no extra in 3rd run-in
4 ½ Cass Bligh (IRE) 11-8 R J Jones (5) A Murray 8 16/1
rear of mid-division, headway from 4 out, close 7th 2 out, ridden to go 4th before last, no impression run-in
4 d.h Lastoftheleaders (IRE) 10-5 Miss N Carberry A L T Moore 9 7/1

held up towards rear, some headway early straight, kept on well run-in without reaching

So...not too far out eh?
Swoops..An overlay is a price offered on a particular result that is higher than the one I have calculated it should be.
It is a way of seeking value in a race.

 

[swooperman]

Thats what I thought tbh, or roughly what I thought. i always make an annual attempt to understand racing on the sunday going into Cheltenham.....makes me feel less of a mug