Prem handicap betting

[Seen]

Below is the current position using the handicap set by Betfair. Just wondering if anyone had any opinions on the current betting to finish top and bottom of the handicap (which is shown in the 2nd and 3rd columns top bottom)?

The 'pink' column is current standings (current pts + hcap), then the rest of the columns are self explanatory, except the last one (*) which is the expected final points tally using the mean of overall pts per game and Last 10 ppg. This is the column I've sorted to.

It does look as if Everton have a solid chance to finish top, they're picking up around 2pts per game consistently and it's going to take a real downturn in form for them to throw it away. They do have some tough away games coming up but they're probably going to have to drop to 1.5 pts per game for their remaining 17 games to have any chance of being caught. The 2.6 on offer originally looked short but it's probably about right or maybe a bit big?

The 'to finish bottom of the hcap' is more interesting, with a clear 7 teams in with every chance of ending up bottom. Norwich and Villa can't be totally ruled out but they've probably got enough in hand now.
Swansea, West Brom and Cardiff look the 'obvious' value. Sunderland look too short at 3.8 as they're the only team in the bottom 9 (in above table) to have a better Last 10 ppg than overall ppg, down to the fact they picked up just 1 pt in their first 8 games (0.125 ppg) and then 16 pts from their next 13 games (1.23 ppg).

Any opinions?

 

[keemanan]

lol at united

 

[Punter]

I think WBA are going to plummet Seen. Cardiff too.

I still find it hard to believe that the baggies sacked Clarke, it was a surprise to the players too. He hadn't done a lot wrong and if any team had, had some bad reffing decisions go against them early season it was them.
The board at Albion deserved credit for a good selection of managers in recent seasons but the sacking of Clarke looks a wrong one to me. They didn't even have anyone lined up!
They've been fortunate with some good strikers in recent seasons too, Odemwinge (before he lost the plot), Lukaku last season. I find it hard to believe that they seem happy to let Shane Long go too.

It's only a hunch but i've a feeling the players aren't going to take to the new manager.

 

[ONEDUNME]

I wouldn't have a clue about what's going to happen at the bottom, it's too unpredictable for me to be investing in that market.

At the top however, I like it. Despite the hype, things are more stable apart fron the odd inevotable upset every now and again and they could happen to any team on the list. Iwas toying with having a silly bet on Everton to actually win the league (think they were about 70/1 the other day) but this market gives me the option if cashing in if they do well and fail to run close for the title- there's no value in the top 6, 5 or 4 markets so I'm on this one instead.

My worry would be Newcastle. I think teams have Sussed out Southampton with their tippy tappy possession and not enough penetration and any team in the league is capable of holding or beating them on their day which can't be aai for Everton.

short enough price but a definite bet for me. Thanks Seen.

 

[hotspur]

Personally,I always consult the experts* when dealing with handicaps.


And it wont come as too much of a surprise, Im guessing, that they agree that Everton should win most-or even all- handicaps(theres 3 others in running)..with Liverpool coming second( in this one)or 3rd behind Arse in others.


(If I had to bet on this)Id bet on Liverpool and Everton and hope Liverpool win the derby in 2 weeks then put a bit more on Everton.

Is Evertons price value? Unlikely Id have thought.If it is then only a few%.Its a bet against them suffering bad luck with decisions,injuries and/or slipping up in the key games v Arse,Newcastle and Pool.


(You could cover Newcastle on BetVics hcp at 16-1-who have been unlucky so far- but youd probably have to do Arse as well due to their points.)



I took a look at the bottom market but after 10 minutes had to take 2 paracetemal and lie down in a darkened room.


Effectively youre trying to guess how Man U are gonna do arent you? The prices on Fulham,Sunderland and WHU, the most likely, clearly have not one iota of value but then nor do the others appear to.




*The spread betting firms of course

 

[ONEDUNME]

Experts, my arse. Would you like to tell me how many points they were predicting man united would get at the start I the season an what they are predicting for them now? In other words the so called experts were way out.

Likewise Hull and Everton (off the top of my head).

 

[hotspur]

Experts, my arse. Would you like to tell me how many points they were predicting man united would get at the start I the season an what they are predicting for them now? In other words the so called experts were way out.

Likewise Hull and Everton (off the top of my head).

Theyre not clairvoyants ,ODM.

Like gamblers they react to new information/circumstances.Everton pulled off 3 very good signings in the transfer window and its generally

agreed they had a great transfer period which has probably helped them.


(Then again,I doubt that their points would have been altered by much after the transfer window but then I got them at 2-1 wout the big 6 after the transfer window had closed as you can see on my thread so the bookies didnt react much either.)


Professional gamblers bet with them rather than betfair cos of the lack of liquidity with bf so they have to get their prices right but

if not they soon find out.

As for Hull,Im not 100% sure what you mean.They were considered to have the best chance of the promoted teams I thought?

They were also always going to be difficult for anyone to assess.

Last time I looked they were 6-1 with PP for top 10 which I thought was good but who am I to disagree with Paddy Power?


You can disagree all you like but they are considered to be among the best by the gambling industry from what Ive read on many occasions.

In particular Kevin Pullein who is well known to be the most knowledgable pundit-with a verifiable record as far as I know of double figure profit going back several years- swears by them.


As far as I can work out from your previous comments ODM the only current prediction you disagree with is likely to be Newcastle!?


You may well be right about them-theyve been playing well enough-but that would still mean you agree with 95% of their current totals?Or at least dont dispute them greatly.


Anyway youre something of an expert yourself-something you seem to keep forgetting when you comment.


For the likes of me the spread betting firms are good enough.

 

[ONEDUNME]

Dont ever mention Kevin no-bet pullein's fucking name to me again. Stats stats stats all designed to give the impression that he's a genius. Here's a stat for you, 90% of what Pullein comes out with is of no practical use whatsoever. He couldn't tip a barrow I shit.

I'll address the rest of your points when I have time.

 

[slick]

Aye United lol.

On current form the table looks spot on but like ODM I wouldn't like to back or lay any of that lot due to the unpredictable nature of the Prem this year.

Saying that United can't do any worse and should only get better as their injury crisis clears up, more so when they get RVP and Rooney back meaning they might just sneak out of the handicap relegation zone lol.

 

[ONEDUNME]

Anyway youre something of an expert yourself-something you seem to keep forgetting when you comment.

I'm not an expert at anything.

but that would still mean you agree with 95% of their current totals?Or at least dont dispute them greatly.

I'll take your word for that. I have no idea what their current totals are. If we happen to reach similar conclusions based on the data that we have, that doesn't make them (or me, experts). In any event (and I don't know how much you know about spread betting but I'd assume, not a lot judging by your post) the prices that they quote for points totals are not necessarily the price that they think a team will achieve. I know that won't make much sense to you but it's true.

Let me give you a hypothetical example. At the start of the season, a spread firm may look at a newly promoted club (we'll take Crystal Palace just for illustrative purposes). As you say, it's not easy to assess how they will do but, based on the information that they have, their "experts" may sit down and review every fixture and decide that they think they're going to come out with 39 points. So, based on that, do they make their spread 38-40? Do they fuck. Do you know why? Because if Palace find the premiership too hot to handle and absolutely flop (as Derby did) it's a distinct possibility that they may finish up with only 20 points, a maximum downside of 18 on their initial spread. On the other hand, what's the very, very best they can expect Palace to do? Probably end up with 45 or 46 points, a maximum upside of 6. They also know that more people will be expecting Palace to fail (and want to sell) than will expect them to win. They want something approaching a balanced book, so what do they do, they set their opening price lower than their own expectations at, let's say, 34-35.

Another thing you have wrong is....

Like gamblers they react to new information/circumstances.Everton pulled off 3 very good signings in the transfer window and its generally

Well, to be fair, I should say slightly wrong. Once they'e made their initial opening spreads, the only things that will drive the price one way or another are the weight of money (the main one) and the calculation of where the future money is going to be placed. If they think. Another example, they open the season quoting Palace at 34-35. To their surprise there are more buyers than sellers so they quickly shift their price to 35-36 to balance their books realising that they've misjudged the market (remember that a ball hasn't been kicked yet).

They have estimated that Palace will take 7 points from their first six matches. After six matches, Palace have done exactly that and their original prediction of 39 points is looking good.


Three things to consider so far.
1. Their maximum downside of Palace getting 20points is now looking unlikely so they can raise their spread slightly closer to the total that they are predicting
2. If Palace finish on between 34 and 36 points they, with a balanced book likely to score a massive profit as everyone who has bet so far will have sold at 34 or 35 and bought at 35 or 36.
3. At no time yet has their "expert expectation" of 39 points been quoted - this is important as, unless I'm misunderstanding you, you seem to be basing your ideas of what the "experts" are predicting on their current spreads.

So they raise their spreads to 36-37. The very next day, a punter sells their points total for 20 grand a point (and I hold my hands up and admit I have no idea what size of bet would be needed to affect the balance of one of their points markets but assume, for now, that this is that figure). They obviously react and lower their spread quote again. Partly to offset the balance so that profit is assured but also from fear that the punter may have some information that they don't have and which, once widely known, may lead to more punters selling the points spread. They lower it to 34-35

So between match six and match seven, they have started with a spread of 35-36, increased it to 36-37 and then lowered it again to 34-35. All without a ball being kicked, without any team news, signings, manager sackings, fuck all, and all prices quoted on a team that they think are likely to finish with 39 points.

Obviously all hypothetical - but an illustration that the only time the so called "experts" views are of any value is on setting the initial price. The market will drive itself after that.

I could tidy this up or add more but the footy has started and I'm bored so I'll just add....

who am I to disagree with Paddy Power?

You disagree with Paddy Power every time you place a bet with him/them. A team is 2/1, you think they have a better chance of winning than that price, you take the bet.

 

[peleus]

Just for me, looks like United need to do some major changes.

 

[hotspur]

I'm not an expert at anything.



I'll take your word for that. I have no idea what their current totals are. If we happen to reach similar conclusions based on the data that we have, that doesn't make them (or me, experts). In any event (and I don't know how much you know about spread betting but I'd assume, not a lot judging by your post) the prices that they quote for points totals are not necessarily the price that they think a team will achieve. I know that won't make much sense to you but it's true.

Let me give you a hypothetical example. At the start of the season, a spread firm may look at a newly promoted club (we'll take Crystal Palace just for illustrative purposes). As you say, it's not easy to assess how they will do but, based on the information that they have, their "experts" may sit down and review every fixture and decide that they think they're going to come out with 39 points. So, based on that, do they make their spread 38-40? Do they fuck. Do you know why? Because if Palace find the premiership too hot to handle and absolutely flop (as Derby did) it's a distinct possibility that they may finish up with only 20 points, a maximum downside of 18 on their initial spread. On the other hand, what's the very, very best they can expect Palace to do? Probably end up with 45 or 46 points, a maximum upside of 6. They also know that more people will be expecting Palace to fail (and want to sell) than will expect them to win. They want something approaching a balanced book, so what do they do, they set their opening price lower than their own expectations at, let's say, 34-35.

Another thing you have wrong is....


Well, to be fair, I should say slightly wrong. Once they'e made their initial opening spreads, the only things that will drive the price one way or another are the weight of money (the main one) and the calculation of where the future money is going to be placed. If they think. Another example, they open the season quoting Palace at 34-35. To their surprise there are more buyers than sellers so they quickly shift their price to 35-36 to balance their books realising that they've misjudged the market (remember that a ball hasn't been kicked yet).

They have estimated that Palace will take 7 points from their first six matches. After six matches, Palace have done exactly that and their original prediction of 39 points is looking good.


Three things to consider so far.
1. Their maximum downside of Palace getting 20points is now looking unlikely so they can raise their spread slightly closer to the total that they are predicting
2. If Palace finish on between 34 and 36 points they, with a balanced book likely to score a massive profit as everyone who has bet so far will have sold at 34 or 35 and bought at 35 or 36.
3. At no time yet has their "expert expectation" of 39 points been quoted - this is important as, unless I'm misunderstanding you, you seem to be basing your ideas of what the "experts" are predicting on their current spreads.

So they raise their spreads to 36-37. The very next day, a punter sells their points total for 20 grand a point (and I hold my hands up and admit I have no idea what size of bet would be needed to affect the balance of one of their points markets but assume, for now, that this is that figure). They obviously react and lower their spread quote again. Partly to offset the balance so that profit is assured but also from fear that the punter may have some information that they don't have and which, once widely known, may lead to more punters selling the points spread. They lower it to 34-35

So between match six and match seven, they have started with a spread of 35-36, increased it to 36-37 and then lowered it again to 34-35. All without a ball being kicked, without any team news, signings, manager sackings, fuck all, and all prices quoted on a team that they think are likely to finish with 39 points.

Obviously all hypothetical - but an illustration that the only time the so called "experts" views are of any value is on setting the initial price. The market will drive itself after that.

I could tidy this up or add more but the footy has started and I'm bored so I'll just add....



You disagree with Paddy Power every time you place a bet with him/them. A team is 2/1, you think they have a better chance of winning than that price, you take the bet.

Starting with the last point first:


NO! I DONT disagree with Paddy Power every time I bet with them!!!


This is something that you just dont get.


I dont want to elaborate because then Id have to explain why Im taking prices I dont believe are value.All you need to know is

that my antepost 'system' for want of a better word does not require me to seek out value bets.

By all means laugh but its another subject entirely.







As for your other quotes,Im well aware thats its a combination of the weight of money and the anticipation of the weight of money that moves the market.



Im afraid the overall point youre trying to make has gone over my head a bit :


Youve said I dont seem to know much about spread betting markets-I do know quite a lot about markets in general but lets say thats true.






What claims did I make?

That I like to consult spread betting markets when making(tricky) decisions about handicap markets.



Are you saying this is a stupid thing to do? If so I disagree. I find them a very useful guide.


If you know of a better guide by all means let me know.Im nothing if not open-minded and if it helps me make money then I will use it.



But if not,Im not at all sure what youve said that makes them not a good guide.Yep,I get that the points on a team like

Palace may well not be accurate but do you think that I cant see that?(edit:though Im wondering why pro gamblers dont see it too?)


I ALSO like to consult websites like statto.He predicts the points at the end of the season based on ratings and results and there are other sites that do the same.

But there are often predictions that I can tell straightaway that are plain wrong. Does this mean that statto is not an expert?

Nope,his ratings are dictating his predictions and ratings sometimes dont reflect current circumstances.

( Yep I know he went bankrupt .Many expert gamblers go broke for one reason or another.)


You seem to think that I take what they/the spread betting firms 'predict' as gospel. I dont.


I dont need to.They are just a guide. Im quite capable of going through every remaining fixture of a team and ascribing

likely points and assigning them a finishing position based on this.

But I will always want to see what they say too in the case of handicap bets.


Id also say they are probably more accurate than 98% of individual football bettors.


And as far as Im concerned that makes them experts.


Same goes for you.



Most experts-in whatever field you care to name-are wrong more often than that.

 

[hotspur]

Actually,thinking about it,fair enough-if you say youre not an expert then I accept it.

 

[hotspur]

Funnily enough,on comparing stattos ratings based predictions with spreadex the only team with more than a 2 point difference seems to be Palace.

Stattos ratings has them finishing with just 30 points. Id say thats clearly wrong.

Then again spreadex have them on 33/34 which Id say is a bit short too.

 

[Seen]

Updated table...

 

[ONEDUNME]

Funnily enough,on comparing stattos ratings based predictions with spreadex the only team with more than a 2 point difference seems to be Palace.

Stattos ratings has them finishing with just 30 points. Id say thats clearly wrong.

Then again spreadex have them on 33/34 which Id say is a bit short too.

Did you not read what I wrote? Like I said, giving Palace as the example, they will go lower than even they themselves are expecting because a low downside is much more likely than a high upside.

 

[hotspur]

Did you not read what I wrote? Like I said, giving Palace as the example, they will go lower than even they themselves are expecting because a low downside is much more likely than a high upside.

I did indeed. I was in fact backing up your point.

Regardless, I pointed out that if that happened Id probably notice it.

But even if you dont believe Id notice, I said I also use websites that give predictions based on ratings.Which I also find extremely useful even though some predictions look to be wrong
In this case Palace appear to be wrong but thats easily explained.They are one of those teams where the ratings csimply cant take into account the affect of a new manager who hits the ground running.And I wouldnt be able to make money from antepost betting if I didnt realise things like that.In fact pretty much everyone relises things like that anyway dont they?

(As it happens Statto had not added the points from that days game so they were a couple less than they should have been)

And that I can of course go through each fixture and work out the points myself if I doubt a figure.In fact when theres only about 8 games left I do this anyway.

I can only repeat that I see the spreadbetting markets as a great help on deciding how to bet in handicap markets.
Do you think Im making that up?

Im sure just about everyone on here will go with whatever you say ODM so I dont see any problem with this.

It seems that we have a fundamental difference in outlook when it comes to betting.

And arguing about it aint gonna change how I bet-only losing money will.

But more to the point,in this instance, I was using the spread betting markets to help determine who to bet on to win the betfair handicap.

I decided that if I had to bet Id go with Eveton and Liverpool and I used the spread betting markets to help me decide.

That seems reasonable to me.Hey,if Liverpool win at decent odds I will say whats the problem?

 

[ONEDUNME]

It seems that we have a fundamental difference in outlook when it comes to betting.

We do indeed. That difference is that you seem to want to listen to the same people that thousands of other people are also listening to which I can't help thinking is likely to lead you down the same track as many of them and, by extension, taking prices that are shorter than they should be.

I have a few people who's opinion I take into consideration but none of them are read by thousands. Your assertion (I think it was you, forgive me if not, that many people were backing Man City to win this year's Premiership because the RP and RFO had tipped them (or something like that) is, and I don't want to be mean here. fucking laughable.

It wouldn't do for us all to be the same and fair play to anyone who makes a profit over a year's betting but don't give me bollocks about the RP and RFO being some kind of fucking guru shit.

 

[hotspur]

We do indeed. That difference is that you seem to want to listen to the same people that thousands of other people are also listening to which I can't help thinking is likely to lead you down the same track as many of them and, by extension, taking prices that are shorter than they should be.

I have a few people who's opinion I take into consideration but none of them are read by thousands. Your assertion (I think it was you, forgive me if not, that many people were backing Man City to win this year's Premiership because the RP and RFO had tipped them (or something like that) is, and I don't want to be mean here. fucking laughable.

It wouldn't do for us all to be the same and fair play to anyone who makes a profit over a year's betting but don't give me bollocks about the RP and RFO being some kind of fucking guru shit.

BUT I DONT! Youve simply inferred it.


How can I make it any plainer?


Jesus Christ

 

[hotspur]

We do indeed. That difference is that you seem to want to listen to the same people that thousands of other people are also listening to which I can't help thinking is likely to lead you down the same track as many of them and, by extension, taking prices that are shorter than they should be.

I have a few people who's opinion I take into consideration but none of them are read by thousands. Your assertion (I think it was you, forgive me if not, that many people were backing Man City to win this year's Premiership because the RP and RFO had tipped them (or something like that) is, and I don't want to be mean here. fucking laughable.

It wouldn't do for us all to be the same and fair play to anyone who makes a profit over a year's betting but don't give me bollocks about the RP and RFO being some kind of fucking guru shit.

It was and it wasnt me who said that about City.

Youve quoted me wrong but I did say something about City.

I bet almost exclusively on antepost markets-markets that have very large overrounds.

IF Im able to consistently beat those markets I must be doing something right.

Therefore ,unless you think I cant beat them I fail to see why you persist in telling me Im wrong all the time.


edit: I use every possible advantage I can find in order to try to beat the massive overrounds.

And Im telling you that reading newspapers including the Racing Post and RFO helps ME.

ME being the crucial word. I accept they donrt help you.





NB No doubt this looks like a contradiction of my last post but it isnt.

I have never claimed the RP or RFO are gurus.

But thats the point. The dont need to be in order for their opinions to be of use to me.