D
Doc
Guest
First thoughts:
Italy don't have the pack they used, and Scotland have stood up better up front through their injuries than expected. Italy will have had a red circle around this one on the calendar and will be up for it for sure - for all the progress they are making, they need some wins to show. Likewise Scotland have a make or break quality about it - they still have to perform away from home in the 6N. Probably leaning towards Italy +17 here, but I want to see team news, weather etc first
Wales have named their side and they've gone for athleticism over bulk, with Biggar back to control things at 10. France have shown interesting signs of rebirth to me. Much like the Scotland game though, they need to show it away from home against a decent side. Leaning towards France +8 in a high scoring game - weather to be examined etc
England side and Irish side just announced as I write. Interesting...... Rumours that Kearney and O'Mahoney were injured are on hold after both named. Henderson comes off the bench for Devin Toner - which shows just how far young James Ryan has progressed. Schmidt keeps faith with young guns Carbery and Larmour on the bench. Lots of changes for England - Farrell moves to 10 with a Teo-Joseph midfield and Ford to the bench. Daly overcomes injury concerns (although as with Irish pair, lets wait and see on match day) to keep the same back three. Big changes up front with Sinkler replacing Cole and Hartley (as expected) starting over George. Kruis comes in for Launchbury and the backrow is shaken up with Haskell back in at 7 and Simmonds to eight. Danny Care dropped to the bench and Wigglesworth starts. That suggests to me that Jones is going to take a 'smash em' approach - lots of big beefy ball carries, and less ball players, with a half-back pairing (and midfield) much more suited to a less subtle, tempo-controlling game. I'll stick my neck out and say he's made the wrong call here. Irelands back three are strong in the air and on kick defence and won't be particularly discommoded by a kicking focus. 9-13 are all good defenders for Ireland and Aki will relish a rehash of his Connacht-Leinster clashes with Teo (where he generally had the upper hand). Sinckler adds to Englands carrying game, but his discipline is as bad as Coles and his scrummaging is significantly worse. With two high quality front rows, Ireland will really go for it here I think - and it is rare that a pack that dominates the scrummage is outmuscled elsewhere. Ireland's position is unusual - there is history but no title at stake. They'll have huge motivation to prepare and having spoiled Englands grand slam dreams 3 times in the 6N, they'll be wary of complacency. Englands big weaknesses to date have been the breakdown and discipline. I suspect they've added three more in their effort to ramp up the physicality - midfield defensive organisation, midfield distribution and scrum. By contrast, Ireland have been strong in scrum, breakdown and discipline, have had really clever power plays to unpick defences (e.g. Stockdales try against Scotland from the scrum) and have kept the ball extremely well. Where they have shown vulnerability is when teams can quickly move the ball wide in loose play. I'm increasingly (and somewhat worryingly!) calmly confident about this. I'll try to take a more Anglo-positive slant in my thoughts later and see if I'm being over-optimistic.... Ireland +1 looking good, with only Englands excellent Twickenham record being a cause for concern - they've won 40/46 6 Nations games. Although 3 of those have been to Ireland - most recently in 2010......hmmmmm
Italy don't have the pack they used, and Scotland have stood up better up front through their injuries than expected. Italy will have had a red circle around this one on the calendar and will be up for it for sure - for all the progress they are making, they need some wins to show. Likewise Scotland have a make or break quality about it - they still have to perform away from home in the 6N. Probably leaning towards Italy +17 here, but I want to see team news, weather etc first
Wales have named their side and they've gone for athleticism over bulk, with Biggar back to control things at 10. France have shown interesting signs of rebirth to me. Much like the Scotland game though, they need to show it away from home against a decent side. Leaning towards France +8 in a high scoring game - weather to be examined etc
England side and Irish side just announced as I write. Interesting...... Rumours that Kearney and O'Mahoney were injured are on hold after both named. Henderson comes off the bench for Devin Toner - which shows just how far young James Ryan has progressed. Schmidt keeps faith with young guns Carbery and Larmour on the bench. Lots of changes for England - Farrell moves to 10 with a Teo-Joseph midfield and Ford to the bench. Daly overcomes injury concerns (although as with Irish pair, lets wait and see on match day) to keep the same back three. Big changes up front with Sinkler replacing Cole and Hartley (as expected) starting over George. Kruis comes in for Launchbury and the backrow is shaken up with Haskell back in at 7 and Simmonds to eight. Danny Care dropped to the bench and Wigglesworth starts. That suggests to me that Jones is going to take a 'smash em' approach - lots of big beefy ball carries, and less ball players, with a half-back pairing (and midfield) much more suited to a less subtle, tempo-controlling game. I'll stick my neck out and say he's made the wrong call here. Irelands back three are strong in the air and on kick defence and won't be particularly discommoded by a kicking focus. 9-13 are all good defenders for Ireland and Aki will relish a rehash of his Connacht-Leinster clashes with Teo (where he generally had the upper hand). Sinckler adds to Englands carrying game, but his discipline is as bad as Coles and his scrummaging is significantly worse. With two high quality front rows, Ireland will really go for it here I think - and it is rare that a pack that dominates the scrummage is outmuscled elsewhere. Ireland's position is unusual - there is history but no title at stake. They'll have huge motivation to prepare and having spoiled Englands grand slam dreams 3 times in the 6N, they'll be wary of complacency. Englands big weaknesses to date have been the breakdown and discipline. I suspect they've added three more in their effort to ramp up the physicality - midfield defensive organisation, midfield distribution and scrum. By contrast, Ireland have been strong in scrum, breakdown and discipline, have had really clever power plays to unpick defences (e.g. Stockdales try against Scotland from the scrum) and have kept the ball extremely well. Where they have shown vulnerability is when teams can quickly move the ball wide in loose play. I'm increasingly (and somewhat worryingly!) calmly confident about this. I'll try to take a more Anglo-positive slant in my thoughts later and see if I'm being over-optimistic.... Ireland +1 looking good, with only Englands excellent Twickenham record being a cause for concern - they've won 40/46 6 Nations games. Although 3 of those have been to Ireland - most recently in 2010......hmmmmm
this morning, as you might imagine. Delighted with the result, and happy with my predictions on both Ireland and Wales games, which unfolded as I expected.
) and I've been trying to be more fair to Scotland and where they are in their development. It is looking increasingly like they're now a team that are just a little more difficult than previous to beat at home, but still fold a cheap deckchair when on the road.