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Scottish Antepost Multiples

ThunderCelt

ThunderCelt

National League Punter
Joined
Aug 8, 2011
Messages
1,558
Points
63
So, having said I'll do it, here's putting my money where my mouth is. My aim is to do various multiples for winners of the four Scottish divisions (Premier without Celtic, Div 2 without Rangers).

Sorry, I can't work this out in units so having to quote 'real' money. My aim is to have a return of £200, while investing less than £200. I don't often do multiples, so this is all largely speculative. First bet:

Bet365, Motherwell 9/4, Dundee 15/8, Brechin 9/2, Peterhead 15/8, 146.74/1, £1.36, potential returns £200.93
 
The very best of luck with this TC.

Can I ask why you're doing it with Scottish markets only?

Especially with your knowledge of League 2?
 
By the way,you have no idea just how fascinating it is for me to see someone else actually doing this.

I've never actually read Waynes thread yet.

But thats only really because I obviously knew how that season went and I inferred a great deal from his comment/post "bloody Wycombe".

But I will be avidly reading it this summer I'm hoping.
 
Thanks hotspur. I'm doing this with Scotland because the divisions have so few teams I'm not likely to need so many bets to complicate things. And because the Scottish antepost market has been one of the kindest to me in the past. And, because I only know the league in passing and certainly not as an expert, it's a good test of the 'system' rather than my knowledge.
 
lol.Thats about as good an answer as there could be.

Yep,that'd be it.

You're way more sensible than me.
 
Some more, all Bet365
Motherwell 3/1, Dundee 13/8, Brechin 4/1, Albion 11/2, 340.25/1, 59p, potential return £201.34
Motherwell 3/1, Dundee 13/8, Ayr 6/1, Peterhead 7/4, 201.12/1, 99p, potential return £200.10
Motherwell 3/1, Falkirk 11/2, Brechin 4/1, Peterhead 7/4, 356.5/1, 56p, potential return £200.20
 
Some more, all Bet365
Motherwell 3/1, Falkirk 11/2, Brechin 10/3, Albion 11/2, 731.11/1, 28p, potential return £205.05
Motherwell 3/1, Falkirk 11/2, Ayr 6/1, Peterhead 7/4, 490.5/1, 40p, potential return £196.6
Motherwell 3/1, Dundee 13/8, Ayr 6/1, Albion 11/2, 476.75/1, 42p, potential return £200.66
 
Good luck TC, and I hope Albion Rovers especially, do the business for you as they are my Scottish team.

I did try something similar a few seasons back, Prem to Conference, I think I covered trebles and up. I think I only got about 80% of my stake back though. What ruined it for me was I only allowed myself two bets a week staring from July and by the time December arrived I think Chelsea had shortened to 2/5 and Barnet were already best priced 1/7 for the Conference!
 
only bad bet i see myself TC is ayr. Dunno why your having them but a disbeliving komp could never figure them.
Don't really like Falkirk from what ive gathered TC but good luck. I cant see 'how' they could win that league this season. Havent look too hard mind.
 
dundee and peterhead 'should' walk it and an ok double the now imo (or 3 weeks ago)
 
ive backed stronger Peterhead teams ante post and lost btw :uh huh
 
i still think stenhousemuir could be the value punt this season. They ARE (not arguably) better this season after their fast finish of last. the 'names' on their team sheet can win a game. dunno what id get but rate stenhousemuir as 3/4th favs not the outsider in the pack. Points maybe?
 
Thank you gentlemen. My aim by the season's start is to have every combination of 1st and 2nd favourites for each division, which I reckon will cost about 10% of my aimed for £200. Then likely a bet a week, but after Punter's experience maybe more. Not sure that's the best way to do it, especially as Komp doesn't agree with my picks, but there we go.

My Scottish team is Stranraer, after spending a summer working a few miles east. Someone else there was a very keen Stranraer fan, and passed on to me his hatred for rivals Queen of the South.
 
Some more:

Aberdeen 5/2, Falkirk 5/1, Brechin 7/2, Peterhead 15/8, 270.69/1, 74p, potential return £201.05 SkyBet
Aberdeen 9/4, Falkirk 11/2, Brechin 10/3, Albion 11/2, 594.02/1, 34p, potential return £202.30, Bet365
Aberdeen, 9/4, Falkirk 11/2, Ayr 6/1, Peterhead 7/4, 405.65/1, 49p, potential return £199.26, Bet365
Aberdeen 5/2, Dundee 7/4, Brechin 7/2, Peterhead 15/8, 123.52/1, £1.61, potential return £200.48, SkyBet
 
Some more:

Aberdeen 5/2, Dundee 7/4, Brechin 7/2, Albion 5/1, 258.88/1, 77p, potential return £200.10, SkyBet
Aberdeen 5/2, Dundee 7/4, Ayr 5/1, Peterhead 15/8, 165.03/1, £1.20, potential return £199.24, SkyBet
Aberdeen 9/4, Falkirk 11/2, Ayr 6/1, Albion 11/2, 960.18/1, 21p, potential return £201.84, Bet365

That's every combination of the first and second favourites covered (I think/hope). £9.96 spent against the target income of £200. I'll now limit myself to one or two bets weekly.

Two observations:

1. Keeping track of the multiple bets is a lot of hassle (Or maybe I'm not very organised. Mrs ThunderCelt could comment here.);
2. Covering every combination of the top two for 5% of my target income seems very good value. I assume unless an outsider takes an early lead my future bets will be generally even smaller.
3. I need to open accounts with a couple of other bookmakers. At the moment I've only used two. (I do have multiple accounts, but these offer the value, and some others I'm with ain't running the 'without Rangers' market.
 
A couple more:

Aberdeen 9/4, Dundee 6/4, Airdrie 11/2, Peterhead 7/4, 144.23/1, £1.38, potential return £200.42 BetVic
Aberdeen 11/4, Dundee 13/8, East Fife 6/1, Peterhead 7/4, 155.76/1, £1.27, potential return £199.09, Bet365
 
Thundercelt,I almost forgot something important that I wanted to ask you concerning these bets.

And,actually,every single one of the members of this forum.


See,the thing is,almost no serious gambler believes its possible to make long-term profits from antepost accumulators because of course its very unlikely that the bets can be value.

In one of the most popular and successful soccer betting books,Geoff Harvey states that he would never bet on any market with more than 20 runners due to the overrounds.

The reason these bets dont appear in any book or virtually nowhere on the internet is because noone can see the value.

And of course no serious gambler ever bets if they dont believe a bet is value.


SO,my question is.

Every single time TC bets over the next 9 months,ask yourself,

"Is this particular bet value"?.

If yes then which parts of the bet are value? Not all 4 teams surely? 3 teams? 2?If its just one then of course the bet probably isnt value.


I think TC himself will say that most of the bets are not value.

How could they be? The overrounds are too high.


If TC succeeds this season,and I pray that he does,the question is HOW.

If the bets were value that would have to mean that throughout the season the bookies were offering value on favourites.

If they werent value then of course it would mean(assuming no luck was involved)that TC has just proven one of the most sacrosanct gambling beliefs to be WRONG.

That you can only profit in the long term by betting value.
 
I have no idea which of these bets are/aren't value - I don't know Scottish football well enough. I know roughly which clubs are bigger than others, but nowhere near well enough to judge value - part of the reason I chose Scotland to test the system.

Overall, though, I've managed to bet on every combination of the first and second favourites at a combined return of 20/1 (ie I staked about £10 of my bank doing it for returns of £200). I reckon that's got to be value but it would take a better mathematician than me to prove it!
 
Also, I'm doing something similar with the top four English divisions, the three conference divisions, and a Belgium/Holland/Portugal/Italy combo, although for smaller stakes, so by the end of the season with four going, I'll probably have proved to at least my satisfaction that this either works or doesn't.

My gut feel so far is that it works best where the odds are longer - in my European combo with clear odds on favourites in three leagues even a fourfold comes out about 15/1, which leaves less scope for covering an outsider. Of course, it's all got to be proved as out of all my combos only one round of games has been played (Belgium) so I can't claim to know what I'm talking about.
 
ThunderCelt said:
I have no idea which of these bets are/aren't value - I don't know Scottish football well enough. I know roughly which clubs are bigger than others, but nowhere near well enough to judge value - part of the reason I chose Scotland to test the system.

Overall, though, I've managed to bet on every combination of the first and second favourites at a combined return of 20/1 (ie I staked about £10 of my bank doing it for returns of £200). I reckon that's got to be value but it would take a better mathematician than me to prove it!
Click to expand...



Right well ok TC.thanks for answering.

Heres the thing.

IF in fact the reason you are successful this season is because the top 2 were value as you say,would it be a good idea to do these bets on a forum thats getting an ever increasing number of visitors?


I hope you dont see that as any criticism.Let me make it clear.Im extremely glad youre doing this and I want you to succeed.I ask the question rhetorically.

If these bets only work because they are value then it would only take a few hundred people at most doing them before the value disappeared.

Or indeed it would take just a few dozen wealthier punters to achieve the same thing.


If Thundercelt succeeds this season then,effectively the information thats on this thread is very useful indeed.

To many people...

This applies to any antepost multiples not just Scottish.
 
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