So how DO you sort the Wheat from the Chavs!?

[hotspur]

The other day I replied to a new member on another thread called rushingrogan.

(I was unnecessarily short with him and,if you see this rushingrogan,I apologise.....er,and,um,if you want to take my bet,pm me)

I haven't read any of the thread since then but I have enough experience on here I think to guess the type of response.

And thats mainly why Ive started this thread.

The question I ask is-probably-rhetorical and thus Im expecting this thread to be very short.

certainly I won't be reading this one either.Just wanted to get something off my chest while Im still around.


SO.From time to time someone on here will say something along the lines of,

"Why would anyone pay for tips when there are such great tipsters on here?"


I aint gonna waste my time talking about paying for tips.Its a free country and a free market.

I find it very helpful and profitable.Others don't.Heh-ho.

i simply want to ask,HOW can a newcomer to a gambling forum have any idea who on that forum is a profitable gambler?

The great irony of rushingrogans opening remarks is that,as far as Im aware,JTWs head2head threads are among the most successful on football gambling forums.....and he regularly bets 1.3 shots!!!


Thus,I have a further question,

WTF doesn't everyone simply do JTWs bets!!!!??

As far as I can tell from what people have divulged ,you'd all be better off.



OR,is it not quite as simple as that?



As I say,Im just asking.


The only thing I would add is that IF ALL you had to do to profit from football betting was read fucking forums and the free info on the net...well then I just don't know why it is that apparently only 3% of bet fairs customers are profitable.


Apologies to rushingrogan once again and Good Luck

 

[Rushinrogan]

Absolutely no need to apologize for anything. I knew what i was doing when i posted and fully expected to get shot at. I'm old and arrogant with thick skin and, some would say , a thick head.
Of course you are absolutely correct when you say it's a free country. If somebody wants to sell their tips for a bit of extra cash then who am i to begrudge them that. There's obviously a market out there.
Just to repeat myself though, i'm really am not referring to free tipsters. More about research. However to comment on the free tipsters here or anywhere else, i admire anyone who has the balls to put their selections only to get shot down when they get it wrong. At least they try.
You raise a very good point regarding why only 3% of punters actually make money. Heres my take on it and it's the one thing everyone tends to overlook. Discipline.
Despite what people think, doing sports betting for a living is not as glamorous as you might suppose. In fact it can be downright boring. You can spends hours in front of computer which interferes with you personal and social life.All to come up with a couple of bets.
Or in my case, i have database that allows me to drill down to which countries or leagues are the most profitable for me. I focus on them and job done. Now i'm sitting here with bugger all else to do and there are hundreds of football/Basketball games going on.Hmm, i fancy Arsenal today, of course i do, i used to watch them every other weekend. Maybe just a sneaky bet. Or, I see UTD a paying big money, maybe just a sneaky bet. See how easy it is. You have to take the emotion out of it and be rigid in your discipline and that is the hardest thing to do.

 

[Seen]

I find the most profitable approach to betting is to stake £50 on your winners and just 50p on the loosers. I think most gamblers loose because they have £50 on their loosers and only 50p on there winners.

Actually makes sense when you think about it.

 

[Wayne]

Ah another thread that this cunt starts that he then pretends he doesn't read.

Funny how you suddenly manage to stop reading threads where you've made a twat out of yourself, you're being challenged or you're being asked direct questions that you can't answer. And if you do have some unique ability to do that, what's the point of coming on a forum if you never read threads you're posting in?

And this is the problem with your hotspur. You're that arrogant that you think people are thick enough to believe the utter shite you come out with.

Stop being a wanker.

certainly I won't be reading this one either.Just wanted to get something off my chest while Im still around.

If that's a veiled threat that you're fucking off, then please unveil it and fuck off.

 

[winrew]

 

[Rushinrogan]

Actually Seen, there is more than an element of truth to what you say. Poor staking plans are common downfall for alot of punters. Particularly those designed to chase losses.The martingale is a good one to avoid. My own choice is level stakes where i bet 2% of my bank on every selections. As the odds i go for are pretty consistent i find it works for me.

 

[Seen]

I'll come clean - I was only joshing with my £50 winners & 50p losers plan - the flaw is actually that you don't know which ones are going to win and which are going to lose!

What I like to do is back a horse to, say, a £10 stake. If it wins then great, I bank the winnings and have another go. If it gets beat then my next bet will be £20, if it wins I bank the winnings and go back to a £10 bet, if it loses my next bet will be £40 and so on. Unless your a terrible gambler and can't pick a winner to save your life, then you cannot lose! Try it if you don't believe me!

 

[beamer]

Unless your a terrible gambler and can't pick a winner to save your life, then you cannot lose! Try it if you don't believe me!

I hope you realise you've increased the suicide stats of compulsive gamblers for the year ending 2012, you evil bastard.

well then I just don't know why it is that apparently only 3% of bet fairs customers are profitable.

I can't remember old old the original quote is, which I thought was 2%, but I'd be interested to see the original report.

I think a few things should be considered:

I wouldn't be totally surprised if only 1% of betting shop punters were profitable, so we could possibly be looking at a 100%+ increase in winning punters on betfair.


Although arbers are in decline they still exist. The majority of backers of Ahwaak at 20/1 in tomorrows race at Lingfield, will happily be prepared to lose on the lay bet that many punters will have in place. A betfair loser, but a cash winner.
Hills and other bookies lay on the betfair market and are happy to lose on their lays.

The same situation exists with ante post bets. Bet with bookies @ 20/1 and lay off with betfair 8/1.

Punters who trade out on acca's put on with the bookies. A possible betfair loser, but cash winner.

How was the sample calculated ?

Did it include the single bet on account punters, as I'm sure plenty of them exist.

Then there are the "cock up" variables to consider, which I'm sure many punters have done unwittingly; laid £20 @ 20.0, instead of backing. You could argue that the errors could work in your favour, but I think a lot of people have been stung for a large amount.

The established bookies continue to stop/ limit winning and losing accounts. We can assume some of these are actual winning accounts, whose only place to bet now is the exchanges.

It's reasonable to expect these winning backers to increase the number of losing layers on betfair, who could in tern still be arbing back with the exchanges.

If I'm averaging £10 a week winnings on betfair, 49 punters losing 21p a week, could be sustaining my winning account, at a total annual loss of £10.92 a year., per punter. The 2% stat is still correct.


Like any headline figure, it can be dissected and regurgitated in whatever fashion you like, but it really needs to be compared to another gambling related business to have any relevance.

It would be interesting to know what the percentage becomes at differing annual turnover rates.

 

[slick]

What I like to do is back a horse to, say, a £10 stake. If it wins then great, I bank the winnings and have another go. If it gets beat then my next bet will be £20, if it wins I bank the winnings and go back to a £10 bet, if it loses my next bet will be £40 and so on. Unless your a terrible gambler and can't pick a winner to save your life, then you cannot lose! Try it if you don't believe me!

Great system Seen, I might rebadge that myself and sell it on ebay .