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Spain football betting 8-10 October

rcgills

rcgills

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Murcia v Xerez (DNB) @ 3 (Bet365) 4pts

I'll start this off by saying that generally speaking I quite like Murcia, and I think they'll go well this season. However, even before checking the team news there was no way I would have had them as odds on favourites here as they are with some bookies, and after checking the team news, it's even less understandable.

Xerez are 3pts and 5 places above Murcia. Murcia have already lost 2 of their 3 home games this season, admittedly to strong teams in Almeria and Celta, and have beaten Numancia, while Xerez have won 2 of their 3 away games, including an impressive win at Alcorcon, plus a loss at in-form Cordoba.

That much on its own makes the price on the visitors look pretty big to me. However, Murcia have not yet fielded the same starting 11 for any two games this season, and have new problems for this game, with their usual right-back and right-sided midfielder out for this match (one suspended, one injured in training). They've also got another three players who've been injured for a while (one who's not played at all this season), although they'd all usually be considered first teamers. That includes their third top scorer from last season, while their leading scorer from last season has been injured so far this season and has yet to play a game (although may be in contention this weekend).

Xerez have injury concerns over one player, but that's all.
 
Girona v Huesca over 2.5 goals @ 2.3 (Bet365) 4pts

Can anyone explain to me why it is that two teams who are conceding an average of 2 goals a game (both have conceded 12 in 6 so far) while scoring 9 and 8 themselves in those 6 games should be priced at 2.3 for the overs? Because personally I'm struggling to see why.

Girona have gone overs in 4 of their 6 games so far (and in 2 of their 3 home games), while Huesca have gone overs in 5 of their 6 games so far, and in all 3 away games. Girona have both scored and conceded in 5 of their 6 games (and all 3 homes), while Huesca have both scored and conceded in 4 of their 6 games, including all 3 aways.

I felt equally confident last week in the overs for Barcelona B v Sabadell and that ended with just the one goal, sods law says something similar will probably happen here, but the price just seems completely wrong to me based on the way the two teams have played so far this season.
 
Think the reason the bookies are favouring unders as this league is showing 47% for over 2.5 goals.
One stat that was surprising was that their have been just over 40% for away wins compared to just over 36% for home wins so far,so the Xerez bet looks even better value.

Ive taken Xerez,but have opted for the win single @ 4.33 vcbet.
 
fc basher said:
Think the reason the bookies are favouring unders as this league is showing 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Click to expand...

Maybe Basher, but these two teams between them are showing 75% for over 2.5 goals. Surely the bookies price matches according to the actual teams playing rather than the stats for the league as a whole? :thinking

Good luck with the outright on Xerez, was considering it myself but opted for the extra safety of the DNB in the end.

There's definitely value to be had if you pick the right games anyway - I've had 5 winners and 2 losers (winners all priced between 2.05 and 2.7) on the overs in this division so far this season.
 
Cheers rc, Depor meet Alcoyano,I was interested in Depor,I see Alcoyano finally got their first win against bottom side Cartagana,any value in Depor @ 2.4 bet365?
 
They're on my shortlist, Basher (as are Almeria, Alcorcon and Cordoba), but haven't had a chance to look at team news on that one yet.
 
One for this evening in Segunda B:

Cadiz to score over 1.5 v Ecija @ 1.8 (Sporting Odds) 4pts

Cadiz are the favourites for this group, but were beaten last weekend for the first time this season, 3-0 away to Lucena (a result which sent Lucena top, and 4pts above Cadiz). Cadiz's local press were pretty critical of their performance, and the articles this week have been along the lines of the players getting carried away, believing the hype about themselves, and needing bringing down a peg or two. They're not sure what kind of reaction they're going to get from their fans tonight, but they're looking for a decent performance to get the fans back onside.

Their last 2 home games have seen Cadiz score 2 against 3rd placed Betis B, and 3 against Cacereño (11th). Ecija are down in 16th with just one win from their first 7, and have conceded 2 away to Lucena (top) and 3 to Badajoz (10th), although they did also manage a 0-0 away to Almeria B (8th).

Cadiz much the better side here, and with last week's result in mind I can't see them being happy to settle for a narrow 1-0 win.

For information, Cadiz also score 7 in 2 games past Ecija last season (won 4-1 at home, lost 4-3 away).
 
Actually, one more as well, also in Segunda B (group 4, btw, as is the Cadiz one):

Linense to score over 1.5 at San Roque @ 2.3 (Sporting Odds) 2pts

Prolific attack up against a weakened defence here. Linense were top until slipping up last week and drawing at home to Lorca. They've so far scored 10 goals in 3 away games, hitting 4 past both Villanovense (12th) and Sevilla B (17th), plus 2 against Melilla (9th).

Today's opponents San Roque are 7th, and don't conceded many goals (5 in 7 games). However, after ending their last match down to 8 men (got to love Spanish refs :lol), they've got a few players missing today, and that includes two of their 3 usual centre backs.
 
Down 2.8pts today. Cadiz scored twice inside the first 25 minutes to bring in that bet, and Xerez finished 0-0 for a push, but Linense got hammered 4-0, and despite going in 1-1 at HT, Girona and Huesca couldn't find the 3rd goal between them in the 2nd half (well, Huesca did in fact score, and it looked perfectly OK to me, but the ref ruled it out :duh)
 
Had to wait for the price to come out on this one, as it's a market Bet365 only offer in-running. Kick off in 2 minutes, but as it's in-play, will still be available throughout the match.

Atletico Madrid B to score over 1.5 goals v Vecindario @ 2.75 2pts (Bet365)

Vecindario's defence the 2nd worst in the division, with 17 conceded in just 7 games. They've conceded 2 goals in all 3 home games so far. Atletico B struggled for goals in their first couple of games (although there were mitigating circumstances in both), but scored 4 last time out away to Marino Luanco.
 
Don't think that market is updated. Trying to think if there's a way to get on this in some way. Possibly over 2.5 goals or AM to score next?
 
:thinking Market's still there mate. "Atletico Madrid B goals". Was 3.25 at the time I started typing this message, but they've just this second scored. Now priced at 1.5
 
Well I'm looking at the screen and still can't see the fucker:cry

Not to worry - I backed over 2 goals and also AM to score first goal. I've now backed them to score the second goal so unless it finishes 2-0 to AM, I'm where I want to be.
 
It's the last-but-one market - you've got Clean Sheet, Vecindario goals, Atletico Madrid B goals, To score in 2nd half.

0-1 at HT, and you can currently get 1.9 on Atletico to score over 1.5, or evens on Atletico to score in the 2nd half (which is basically the same bet, so makes no sense to me, but there you go).

Sporting Odds also offer it in-running, if you still can't see it on Bet365.
 
Equaliser for Vecindario, which is good I guess as it at least means Atletico B can't look to sit on their lead.
 
Good for me. I have a lower price but just need either side to score (and made a little bit backing AM next goal twice)
 
Looks like you're missing a few markets there. Are you on your phone or something, maybe you need to scroll down the screen?
 
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