rcgills
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Almeria v Numancia @ 7.5 (Bet365) 1pt
Crazy price, this one. Appears to be based on the fact that Numancia have nothing to play for, while Almeria need to win to leave themselves 3pts outside the playoffs with 2 games to play. However, Numancia have had nothing to play for for some time now, and last Wednesday were involved in a game with a very similar scenario to this one, away to Hercules, who are inside the playoff places, but not guaranteed a playoff place. Numancia won that game 3-1, and followed that up with a dominant performance in beating Barcelona B 3-0 at the weekend.
Added to that is the fact that Almeria are choking pretty badly, just 2 wins (and 7 draws, 5 defeats) in their last 14 which have seen them drop out of the playoffs. Those two wins have come against the teams 1st and 4th, so when they're on form they're still capable of good results, but they've been dropping far too many silly points.
Obviously not one to go big on, Almeria really should win here, but the price appears to be based exclusively on the motivation of the two teams, disregarding Almeria's poor form and the fact that Numancia still appear to be taking games seriously, even with nothing to play for, so worth a shot for small stakes.
Numancia +0.5 available at 2.85 (or even +1 a/h at 2.2) for anyone who fancies playing it a bit safer (and Numancia have only been beaten by more than one goal away from home 3 times this season, two of which were against the top 2 teams).
Crazy price, this one. Appears to be based on the fact that Numancia have nothing to play for, while Almeria need to win to leave themselves 3pts outside the playoffs with 2 games to play. However, Numancia have had nothing to play for for some time now, and last Wednesday were involved in a game with a very similar scenario to this one, away to Hercules, who are inside the playoff places, but not guaranteed a playoff place. Numancia won that game 3-1, and followed that up with a dominant performance in beating Barcelona B 3-0 at the weekend.
Added to that is the fact that Almeria are choking pretty badly, just 2 wins (and 7 draws, 5 defeats) in their last 14 which have seen them drop out of the playoffs. Those two wins have come against the teams 1st and 4th, so when they're on form they're still capable of good results, but they've been dropping far too many silly points.
Obviously not one to go big on, Almeria really should win here, but the price appears to be based exclusively on the motivation of the two teams, disregarding Almeria's poor form and the fact that Numancia still appear to be taking games seriously, even with nothing to play for, so worth a shot for small stakes.
Numancia +0.5 available at 2.85 (or even +1 a/h at 2.2) for anyone who fancies playing it a bit safer (and Numancia have only been beaten by more than one goal away from home 3 times this season, two of which were against the top 2 teams).