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Strictly Come Dancing 2012

S

stereoman

Guest
The tenth series starts this Saturday.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strictly_Come_Dancing_(series_10)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/blogstrictlycomedancing/posts/Meet-the-Strictly-stars-of-2012

Odds from William Hill:

Outright to win ~

Denise van Outen 11/4
Louis Smith 7/2
Kimberley Walsh 5/1
Nicky Byrne 6/1
Victoria Pendleton 10/1
Dani Harmer 12/1
Colin Salmon 14/1
Michael Vaughan 16/1
Richard Arnold 20/1
Lisa Riley 25/1
Fern Britton 28/1
Sid Owen 28/1
Jerry Hall 33/1
Johnny Ball 40/1

Top Female ~

Denise van Outen 6/5
Kimberley Walsh 5/2
Victoria Pendleton 11/2
Dani Harmer 6/1
Lisa Riley 14/1
Fern Britton 16/1
Jerry Hall 20/1

Top Male ~

Louis Smith 5/4
Nicky Byrne 5/2
Colin Salmon 6/1
Michael Vaughan 7/1
Richard Arnold 10/1
Sid Owen 14/1
Johnny Ball 20/1

Gender of winner ~

Female 8/11
Male 'evens'
 
The celebrities were matched with their professional dancing partners tonight. Favourite Louis Smith was matched with Italian lovely Flavia Cacace. This couple are still the ones to beat.


Girls Aloud singer Kimberley Walsh was partnered with Russian Pasha Kovalev,small but determined and technically brilliant he won’t want to go down without a fight.


Actress Denise Van Outen will be wanting to follow in the footsteps of 2010 winner Kara Tointon. Denise has been partnered with James Jordan and they should easily make the final three.



I don’t see much determination in Westlife’s Nicky Byrne with Venezuelan new girl Karen Hauer,but maybe I will be proved wrong.



Similarly the best male dancer in the competition Brendan Cole will have to work on Victoria Pendleton’s dance skills if rumours are to be believed,but they are a fit couple and if Brendan can’t lick her into shape then nobody can.


I can’t see any other partnerships making the final three. I don’t have a tip for the first elimination in three weeks time as this competition is brutal,with viewers unjustly voting off Goldie first in 2010;however if I had to choose it would probably be Johnny Ball.
 
P.S. I've just realized that there is a dance off this year on the Sunday night so that stacks the cards against 74 year- old Johnny Ball.
 
Yeah, it should and whenever Johnny is in the bottom two, it'll be 'game over' for him. Zoe Ball presents 'It Takes Two' so maybe her dad will last a couple of weeks longer than expected.

Daybreak/GMTV employees past and present don't tend to do well but Fern Britton should last longer than Richard Arnold. She has some sort of fanbase and I suspect he really doesn't.

Are they doing the 'a female goes the first week, a male goes the second week' type gubbins again?

Sight unseen, the first elimination will be one of Richard Arnold, Johnny Ball and Jerry Hall. Typically, they might throw a red herring in just to get rid of one of the worst dancers.
 
Let's be nice this year..



Lisa Riley stole the show dancing the Cuban cha cha cha with her partner Robin Windsor.
 
Well if Les Dawson's daughter didn't see your original post, you might still get her to go.
 
Odds as to who will get the highest score in Week 2 (from William Hill) & the dances:

11/4 Denise van Outen & James Jordan (jive)
3/1 Louis Smith & Flavia Cacace (waltz)
7/2 Kimberley Walsh & Pasha Kovalev (foxtrot)
7/1 Nicky Byrne & Karen Hauer (cha-cha-cha)
9/1 Colin Salmon & Kristina Rihanoff (waltz)
10/1 Dani Harmer & Vincent Simone (salsa)
12/1 Lisa Riley & Robin Windsor (waltz)
12/1 Sid Owen & Ola Jordan (salsa)
16/1 Victoria Pendleton & Brendan Cole (foxtrot)
33/1 Fern Britton & Artem Chigvintsev (waltz)
40/1 Michael Vaughan & Natalie Lowe (jive)
66/1 Jerry Hall & Anton du Beke (foxtrot)
66/1 Johnny Ball & Iveta Lukoslute (foxtrot)
66/1 Richard Arnold & Erin Boag (cha-cha-cha)

This applies to Saturday’s show only and NOT the joint score over the two weeks.

First elimination odds (from William Hill):

Johnny Ball 9/4
Richard Arnold 5/2
Jerry Hall 9/2
Fern Britton 8/1
Michael Vaughan 10/1
Nicky Byrne 20/1
Victoria Pendleton 20/1
Dani Harmer 25/1
Colin Salmon 33/1
Sid Owen 40/1
Kimberley Walsh 50/1
Lisa Riley 50/1
Denise van Outen 66/1
Louis Smith 66/1

Michael Vaughan has a dodgy knee and some shrewdies have backed him to go first accordingly but cricketers tend to do well even if they cannot dance (liek Phil Tufnell).

Will the BBC, with the return of the dance-off, pull 'an X Factor' and keep someone blatantly bad just for some controversy? I think Johnny Ball and Jerry Hall doing the same dance isn't random and that those should be the bottom two but it could be anyone who was in the bottom six last week (Jerry, Johnny, Michael, Nicky, Richard and Victoria).

I can't imagine Jerry has that many fans to keep her in out of those six and she is in trouble. She'd lose in a dance-off to almost everyone else apart from perhaps Johnny.

...who will score the highest? I dunno.
 
Denise scores 32 to head the week two leaderboard ahead of Louis (30) and Dani (27).

Johnny and Richard in the bottom two, and it's Johnny who goes.
 
Jerry Hall remains in the lower positions on the leader board,but life was so much simpler when the woman was led by the male..
 
Odds as to who will get the highest score in Week 3 (from William Hill) & the dances:

7/4 Louis Smith & Flavia Cacace (salsa)
5/2 Denise van Outen & James Jordan (foxtrot)
5/1 Kimberley Walsh & Pasha Kovalev (quickstep)
5/1 Lisa Riley & Robin Windsor (jive)
14/1 Colin Salmon & Kristina Rihanoff (Argentine Tango)
14/1 Victoria Pendleton & Brendan Cole (rumba)
16/1 Fern Britton & Artem Chigvintsev (Charleston)
20/1 Sid Owen & Ola Jordan (tango)
25/1 Dani Harmer & Vincent Simone (foxtrot)
66/1 Nicky Byrne & Karen Hauer (quickstep)
66/1 Michael Vaughan & Natalie Lowe (cha-cha-cha)
100/1 Jerry Hall & Anton du Beke (quickstep)
100/1 Richard Arnold & Erin Boag (quickstep)

It's Hollywood week and these are the apparent songs they'll be dancing to:http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showpost.php?p=61760526&postcount=237

Second elimination odds (from William Hill):

Jerry Hall 9/4
Richard Arnold 11/4
Fern Britton 9/2
Michael Vaughan 9/2
Colin Salmon 12/1
Nicky Byrne 12/1
Sid Owen 16/1
Dani Harmer 20/1
Victoria Pendleton 20/1
Lisa Riley 25/1
Kimberley Walsh 40/1
Denise van Outen 50/1
Louis Smith 80/1

So many quicksteps that the odds are probably right about Week 3. Will Denise top-score for the second week running? Probably not. It's likely Louis' turn.

Will Richard get the proverbial 'dead cat bounce' and avoid being in the bottom two? He'd have to overtake two less popular celebrities and I can't imagine who they'd be.

I think Colin is 'taking the money and running'. He's doing SCD whilst having to go to Canada and film the TV series 'Arrow' so his 'surprise exit' between now and the next four or five weeks wouldn't be at all surprising.
 
Michael and Jerry in the bottom two with Jerry out.

Denise top scores with 32, Louis scores 30 with Dani, Lisa and Kimberley all scoring 29.
 
stereoman said:
Michael and Jerry in the bottom two with Jerry out.

Denise top scores with 32, Louis scores 30 with Dani, Lisa and Kimberley all scoring 29.
Click to expand...
I'll miss Jerry Hall-at least she added a touch of glamour to the show.
 
Sunday afternoon's Bettingzone Market News:

1615: Louis Smith is starting to fulfil his potential and William Hill rate him as their 7/4 favourite to win this year's Strictly Come Dancing.

That said, Louis faces stiff competition from Denise van Outen (5/2), Kimberley Walsh (7/2) and dark horse Lisa Riley who is by far the biggest mover in the market, cut from an original 100/1 to 7/1.

"Louis is looking hard to beat but we have a couple of great dancers in Denise and Kimberley and you cannot rule out the fans favourite Lisa Riley who is a genuine contender this year," said William Hill spokesman Rupert Adams.

Ladbrokes offer a standout 2/1 about Smith, Boylesports go 11/4 about Van Outen while most firms quote 4/1 about Walsh.

==========

Lisa Riley will be popular & I suppose those who've backed her at 100/1 will be phone voting like nuts to keep her in to cause a huge upset but she'll probably finish a gallant fourth. She may be a surprise finalist if they feel generous but Denise, Kimberley and Louis are formidable opposition, and I don't remember there being an all female celebrity (or an all-male celebrity) final three for 'SCD'.

A comparable result would be Marissa Jaret Winokur back in 2008 over on 'Dancing with the Stars' in the US who finished fourth.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dancing_with_the_Stars_(U.S._season_6)
 
Odds as to who will get the highest score in Week 4 (from William Hill) & the dances:

13/8 Denise van Outen & James Jordan (cha-cha-cha)
9/4 Louis Smith & Flavia Cacace (tango)
7/2 Kimberley Walsh & Pasha Kovalev (paso doble)
5/1 Lisa Riley & Robin Windsor (Charleston)
14/1 Dani Harmer & Vincent Simone (cha-cha-cha)
33/1 Colin Salmon & Kristina Rihanoff (salsa)
33/1 Fern Britton & Artem Chigvintsev (American smooth)
33/1 Nicky Byrne & Karen Hauer (tango)
33/1 Victoria Pendleton & Brendan Cole (tango)
66/1 Michael Vaughan & Natalie Lowe (quickstep)
66/1 Sid Owen & Ola Jordan (cha-cha-cha)
100/1 Richard Arnold & Erin Boag (paso doble)

Odds as to who will get the lowest score in Week 4 (from William Hill):

5/2 Sid Owen & Ola Jordan (cha-cha-cha)
11/4 Michael Vaughan & Natalie Lowe (quickstep)
3/1 Richard Arnold & Erin Boag (paso doble)
7/1 Nicky Byrne & Karen Hauer (tango)
8/1 Victoria Pendleton & Brendan Cole (tango)
10/1 Fern Britton & Artem Chigvintsev (American smooth)
16/1 Colin Salmon & Kristina Rihanoff (salsa)
16/1 Dani Harmer & Vincent Simone (cha-cha-cha)
40/1 Lisa Riley & Robin Windsor (Charleston)
66/1 Kimberley Walsh & Pasha Kovalev (paso doble)
100/1 Denise van Outen & James Jordan (cha-cha-cha)
100/1 Louis Smith & Flavia Cacace (tango)

Third elimination odds (from William Hill):

Michael Vaughan 7/4
Richard Arnold 9/4
Fern Britton 9/2
Colin Salmon 9/1
Dani Harmer 14/1
Nicky Byrne 14/1
Victoria Pendleton 14/1
Sid Owen 16/1
Lisa Riley 33/1
Denise van Outen 50/1
Kimberley Walsh 50/1
Louis Smith 100/1

To be in the bottom two (from William Hill):

Michael Vaughan 'evens'
Richard Arnold 11/10
Fern Britton 9/4
Colin Salmon 3/1
Sid Owen 9/2
Nicky Byrne 6/1
Victoria Pendleton 6/1
Dani Harmer 7/1
Kimberley Walsh 16/1
Lisa Riley 16/1
Louis Smith 25/1
Denise van Outen 33/1

=============

Friday morning's Bettingzone Market News:

1115: Michael Vaughan is William Hill's biggest loser in the Strictly Come Dancing elimination market.

The former England cricket captain is the 7/4 favourite to be sent packing this weekend ahead of Richard Arnold at 9/4.

"This week is a Halloween special on Strictly, but it is Michael Vaughan's horror show last week that will live in the memory for Strictly fans and if he walks, we could be hit for six," said William Hill spokesman Joe Crilly.

It's a different story elsewhere, with Arnold a best of 5/2 and Vaughan as big as 3/1 with sportingbet.

Fern Britton is next at a general 5/1 and it's 12/1 bar, while in the outright betting Louis Smith is a standout 15/8 favourite with Coral.

===============

It's the Halloween special & the songs they're dancing to are in the spoiler: http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showthread.php?t=1748767&page=5

Yeah, Denise probably looks good to top the leaderboard again if Len Goodman marks Louis down again. It's tricky enough working out who the judges have put their money on to score highest let alone the lowest but if pushed, I'd say Sid Owen justifies favouritism to score lowest for the second week running.

I think Michael will have a slight 'dead cat bounce' but not enough and it'll likely be Richard vs. Michael but with Richard going. It'll be a bloke this week unless they want to get rid of delicate Fern or Victoria who've both been criticised as likely bursting into tears at any moment.

Will there be an appropriately 'shock' result for the Halloween special!?
 
Kind of. Sid Owen is out, Colin Salmon survives.

Louis top scores with 35 with Kimberley, Michael and Victoria all scoring 31. Denise only scores 28.

Sid finishes bottom with 17.
 
Odds as to who will get the highest score in Week 5 (from William Hill) & the dances:

11/10 Denise van Outen & James Jordan (Viennese waltz)
2/1 Louis Smith & Flavia Cacace (samba)
5/1 Dani Harmer & Vincent Simone (jive)
11/2 Kimberley Walsh & Pasha Kovalev (salsa)
14/1 Lisa Riley & Robin Windsor (tango)
14/1 Michael Vaughan & Natalie Lowe (foxtrot)
33/1 Richard Arnold & Erin Boag (foxtrot)
33/1 Victoria Pendleton & Brendan Cole (samba)
66/1 Colin Salmon & Kristina Rihanoff (foxtrot)
100/1 Fern Britton & Artem Chigvintsev (paso doble)
100/1 Nicky Byrne & Karen Hauer (rumba)

Odds as to who will get the lowest score in Week 5 (from William Hill):

5/2 Nicky Byrne & Karen Hauer (rumba)
10/3 Fern Britton & Artem Chigvintsev (paso doble)
7/2 Victoria Pendleton & Brendan Cole (samba)
9/2 Richard Arnold & Erin Boag (foxtrot)
5/1 Colin Salmon & Kristina Rihanoff (foxtrot)
8/1 Michael Vaughan & Natalie Lowe (foxtrot)
12/1 Lisa Riley & Robin Windsor (Charleston)
33/1 Dani Harmer & Vincent Simone (jive)
50/1 Kimberley Walsh & Pasha Kovalev (salsa)
66/1 Denise van Outen & James Jordan (Viennese waltz)
66/1 Louis Smith & Flavia Cacace (samba)

Fourth elimination odds (from William Hill):

Fern Britton 5/2
Richard Arnold 11/4
Colin Salmon 4/1
Nicky Byrne 6/1
Michael Vaughan 7/1
Victoria Pendleton 7/1
Dani Harmer 20/1
Lisa Riley 20/1
Kimberley Walsh 50/1
Denise van Outen 66/1
Louis Smith 100/1

To be in the bottom two (from William Hill):

Fern Britton 11/10
Richard Arnold 6/5
Colin Salmon 6/4
Nicky Byrne 5/2
Michael Vaughan 3/1
Victoria Pendleton 3/1
Dani Harmer 9/1
Lisa Riley 9/1
Kimberley Walsh 12/1
Denise van Outen 12/1
Louis Smith 20/1

=============

Tricky, tricky, tricky. A trio of foxtrots should mean that one or more of Colin, Michael and Richard will be in the bottom two.

I don't think Colin has any sort of fanbase to get a 'dead cat bounce'. He may face off against Nicky who has been described as 'stiff' in his Latin American dances. I think Colin could be out though.

For me, it's a week to avoid. I think the odds are about right as to who will top score/finish bottom but the margins are so slim that the pesky judges can swing one way or another.
 
Kimberley Walsh injured and Louis Smith sick should open the door for Denise Van Outen.
 
Hmmm. It looks that way and Denise has been slashed into 8/13 from 11/10 to top score tonight. Louis 11/4, Dani 6/1, Kimberley 7/1, Michael 16/1, Lisa 20/1 and 40/1 bar.
 
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